– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

While I have heard discussions around the topic, I have never been one to believe that an “optimal” cow size exists. Every farm is unique and operates in a different production and market environment. Whenever this question comes up, I simply reply that I don’t really care what cows weigh, as long as they are weaning enough pounds of calf each year to be profitable. But even that is a fluid discussion as it is impacted by the market. For example, a cow does not have to wean as large of a calf to be profitable in 2025 as she would have in 2022. The reality is that producers make culling decisions each year based on the best information they have at the time.

While record keeping has never been high on the list of things that cow-calf operations enjoy, it is extremely important and should be used to drive these decisions. Well managed cow-calf operations track weaning weights on individual calves and tie each calf back to its dam. By doing that, productivity can be measured for each individual cow. On the other hand, it is nearly impossible to Continue reading Don’t Ignore Cow Size When Comparing Calf Weaning Weights →

– Stephen R. Koontz, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Colorado State University

Were fed cattle prices too high?

My apologies for the ‘I told you so’ – I recognize I am very often wrong – but cattle prices were well-above levels implied by market fundamentals through much of this late summer and into fall–and this has been talked about in prior newsletters. A reasonable set of demand elasticities and supply information from the Cattle on Feed reports suggested fed animal prices closer to $215/cwt this fall – and not the better than $240 observed. Similarly, with the calculated boxed beef composite value often above $370/cwt and occasionally above $400/cwt, then packers needed to pay less than $230 to break even. This did not happen and has not for a while – that is, fed cattle trading below packer breakeven. It looks to me as if the packing industry hasn’t made any money for better than two years – and I know cattlemen don’t care – but it’s not reasonable to expect losses to continue for the foreseeable future. Fed cattle prices had to retreat, and smaller animal prices with them. The seasonal timing is not a Continue reading Seasonal Retreat from Record Highs →

– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Livestock Marketing Specialist, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

“Can” and “will” expansion occur?

The question that struck a chord this week was “Can the cattle market expand the cattle herd?” After answering the question, the person clearly had a puzzled look so they asked the question in a different way. Their question was not “can” but rather “will” cattle producers expand the herd.

These are two completely different questions with different answers. In short, cattle producers certain “can” retain heifers and begin cattle herd expansion. Many would say aging producers and land loss would prevent the ability to expand, but land is underutilized and there are young producers who want in. They just do not know how to do it.

The question of “will” cattle producers expand the breeding herd has a much different answer. First, the herd will eventually expand, but it will not do it in the near term. Drought has prevented heifer retention for three consecutive years. It could do it again next year. Second, rapid expansion will be hindered by those capitalizing on strong calf prices. Third, why would one expand the herd in a hurry so prices have a reason to decline?

– James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas

The 43-day government shutdown ended on November 13, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture is now working through the backlog of data that went unreleased during that period. Of particular importance for cattle markets were the October and November Cattle on Feed numbers, which Josh summarized in last week’s article. USDA has also resumed publishing cattle slaughter data. Weekly total cattle slaughter is now current for the week ending November 29, though slaughter by class of animal lags by two weeks which is normal.

Tracking beef cow slaughter during the second half of the year is a good indicator of the seasonal peak in cow culling that occurs each fall, as well as any signs of early, drought-induced culling. Through November 15, beef cow slaughter totals 2.09 million head, down 18% from Continue reading Beef Cow Slaughter this Fall is Down 19% →

– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University

USDA released two months’ worth of cattle on feed data on Friday with the November Cattle on Feed report that backfilled missing data from the government shutdown. Cattle on feed as of November 1 was 2.2 percent (260,000 head) lower than it was a year ago. Placements of cattle into feedlots was 10 percent lower during October 2025 than it was in October 2024. Marketings were down 8 percent from a year ago. For the first 10 months of 2025, total placements were 17.6 million head.  This is 6.4 percent below the same period of 2024 (18.8 million head).

There continued to be significant regional differences in cattle on feed changes. The number of cattle on feed in Texas on November 1 was 8.7 percent below Continue reading Cattle on Feed Updates Across Two Reports →

– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Livestock Marketing Specialist, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

Is ground beef a loss leader for more valuable cuts?

A couple of comments concerning the packing industry were made at a meeting last week. These comments resulted in a good discussion with several questions concerning beef prices and more specifically ground beef prices.

President Trump stated the need of reducing beef prices. Whether stated or not stated, he was speaking towards the price of ground beef, and he has been making decisions regarding lowering import tariff rates on beef to increase the availability of lean grinding beef. There are also discussions concerning the Mexican border being reopened to cattle imports. This information has done little to reduce beef prices, but it has effectively reduced cattle prices.

However, back to the point of ground beef prices, the discussion at the meeting was that ground beef price is less than the cost of production for that ground beef. In this instance, ground beef may be acting as a loss leader in the meat case in order to bring customers in the doors so other profitable items will be purchased. This may be a widely used marketing scheme.

– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

The last month has been a wild one for the cattle markets. In mid-October, markets seemed to be setting new records each week and shrugging off any bearish news that came along. Things changed quickly in mid-October and much has been written about this in recent weeks. It seemed to begin with a statement by the president about wanting to lower beef prices. Following that statement, markets appeared to latch on to any potentially bearish news, including the potential for increased beef imports and the possibility of resuming live cattle imports from Mexico.

As of the close on Friday November 14^th, the November CME© feeder cattle futures contract was down more than $42 per cwt from October 16^th. CME© live cattle futures have also fallen sharply, with the December contract down almost $30 per cwt over the same time. In truth, the fundamentals of the cattle market have not really changed. Cattle supplies remain Continue reading Markets Will Always be Reactive, but Price Risk Management Strategies Must be Forward Looking →