– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University

Tighter cow numbers over the past few years have led to smaller calf crops and fewer cattle to sell. According to data from the USDA-AMS National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary, the number of feeder and stocker cattle sold during the first 14 weeks of 2025 totaled 3.72 million head which was 9.5 percent below the number sold during the same period in 2024. Receipts so far in 2025 are down 9 percent year to date when compared to the 4-year average from 2020-2023.

2018 was the peak in sales for the current cattle cycle as shown in the chart above. The 2024 total was 11 percent below 2018 and 4 percent below 2023. It is still early in 2025, but the current trend, and general lower cattle supply, suggest that Continue reading 2025 National Feeder and Stocker Receipts and Percentage of Heifers →

– Glynn T. Tonsor, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University

The market is dependent on continued strong demand.

On Friday, April 11^th the University of Michigan released mid-month Surveys of Consumers information (https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu) indicating U.S. consumer sentiment has declined by historic magnitudes so far in April. Reaching pessimistic levels last seen in the early 1980s, consumers hold elevating expectations for inflation (6.7% year-ahead now expected, up from 5.0% in March) and unemployment (double the November 2024 level and the highest since 2009). While differences in consumer sentiment can often vary across demographic cohort, it is noteworthy director Joanne Hsu writes: “[t]his decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation.” One of the few certainties currently is the U.S. public collectively can confidently be described as very Continue reading Cautionary Note on Beef Demand – Public Financial Sentiment Matters →

– James Mitchell and Ryan Loy, University of Arkansas

The decision to rebuild the U.S. cowherd is based on profitability—not just current prices.

According to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), cow-calf returns in 2023 and 2024 are estimated at $252 and $443 per cow, respectively. At the same time, a common concern among producers is the cost of heifers. For example, USDA-AMS data show 2024 bred heifer prices from the Missouri Show-Me-Select sales averaging over $3,000 per head, a 26 percent increase compared to 2023. Before investing in replacement heifers, whether by buying or raising your own, producers should evaluate the investment over the heifer’s entire productive life on the operation.

Whether you’re spending revenue from calf sales or borrowing, the dollars Continue reading Investing in Herd Expansion: Time Value of Money and Opportunity Cost →

– Stephen R. Koontz, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Colorado State University

Record corn production in 2025?

The week of March 31^st offered interesting information relevant to the long-term perspective associated with beef, cattle, and calf markets. Of course, the focus of last week finished with detailed information on tariffs and their timing. The asset market selloff was impressive – and not enjoyable in any capacity. Stocks, commodities, and even gold saw substantive selling. The importance of international trade to the world economy was discussed and probabilities of recession appeared to be much larger than the week prior. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets reacted to the events and the potential connection with a weaker domestic and world economy. This will take time to play out so…

Let’s return to the unique information in the USDA Prospective Plantings report, the implications for future feedstuffs supplies, and Continue reading Oh, Let’s Talk about the Prospective Plantings Report →

– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

Over the last few months, I have been able to talk with a lot of cattle producers at Extension programs. As you can imagine, the strength of the cattle market is almost always the first topic of discussion. We are seeing prices like we have never seen before for cattle of all types and weights. But my observation has been that producers tend to become a bit more enamored than they should with price per pound and sometimes don’t think as much as they should about value per head.

I see this play itself out in a couple ways. First, I hear some producers talk about selling cattle sooner to capture the higher prices. I don’t necessarily think that downside price risk is greater in high priced markets, but I think there is a perception among some that there may be “more to lose”. This perception lowers interest in adding value to cattle by taking Continue reading Don’t Chase Price per Pound at the Expense of Value per Head →

– Kevin Laurent, Extension Specialist, University of Kentucky

Do you “sell” your calves, or do you “market” your calves? With cattle prices at record levels, the difference between the two doesn’t seem to really matter that much, or does it? We are in unprecedented times in the cattle industry. Beef cow inventory is as low as it’s been since many of us were born. Carcass weights are at record highs and input costs continue to rise. With light weight calves hitting $4.00 cwt it’s hard to argue against the mindset of load them up and haul them off, but I think we need be careful to not let these good times change our mindset.

We are fortunate in Kentucky to have an excellent Market News division at Kentucky Department of Agriculture and lately I have poured over numerous KDA market reports working on PVAP closeouts. I thought I would share some of what I found. Table 1 shows the number of steers and bulls by Continue reading Selling vs Marketing →

– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Livestock Marketing Specialist, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

LRP is administered by the RMA with a federally-subsidized premium.

There were multiple phone calls recently concerning price risk management of feeder cattle and fed cattle. The majority of the questions were in relation to using Livestock Risk Protection insurance (LRP) to hedge cattle for sales from July through November.

Every producer was pleased with where the futures market price is for their respective month, because that translates into the ability to set a higher floor price using LRP. The main issue though was the high cost of purchasing LRP on a dollar per head basis. One thing is for sure, the higher something is in value, the more expensive insurance will be in terms of dollars. However, on a percentage basis of how much it cost relative to the value being protected, the cost is pretty much the same. Additionally, the farther out one is trying to protect a price, the more expensive insurance will be on a dollar per head basis.

Producers should consider the cost of the insurance along with what would be an acceptable loss in price before insurance starts to protect against further price declines.

Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu.

– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University

Last week brought the release of a few key monthly cattle reports with interesting headlines. The monthly Cattle on Feed and Livestock Slaughter reports each showed sharp declines from year-ago levels. February 2024 had one extra day due to the leap year but that was not the only driver of the differences. We also received news of the return of the July Cattle inventory report. For this newsletter, we’ll dig into news from each of these reports.

The February Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday and showed lower numbers across placements, marketings, and total cattle on feed. The total inventory of cattle on feed in Continue reading Cattle on Feed, Livestock Slaughter, and the Welcome Return of the July Cattle Report →

– Hannah Baker, M.S., State Specialized Extension Agent – Beef and Forage Economics, Range Cattle Research and Education Center, University of Florida / IFAS Extension

This week: Manage input costs.

2025 is expected to be another year of high cattle prices as a result of, primarily, tight supplies. Average weekly prices for 500-600-pound steer calves across the country have increased by roughly 10 percent with fed steer prices also increasing 10 percent year over year. Week to week, there has been some volatility, but overall, prices have remained strong during the first few months of 2025. Prices for weaned heifers, replacement cattle, and cull cows in Florida are following the same trend with March prices being 7 percent, 22 percent, and 16 percent higher year over year, respectively. As we approach expansion and more heifers are retained and culling slows more than it already has, the value of female cattle will increase. Prices for feeder cattle will also increase with less heifers entering the market. The next few years are expected to be highly favorable for cow-calf producers in terms of revenue.

In terms of profitability, production costs are also high, affecting how large Continue reading Importance of Managing Inputs with High Cattle Prices →