– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

USDA released the April Cattle on Feed report on Thursday April 17^th. The Thursday release was due to the 18^th being Good Friday. Monthly Cattle on Feed reports estimate inventories for feedlots with capacity over 1,000 head, which represents over 80% of total on-feed inventory in the US. As of April 1, total on-feed inventory was estimated at 11.6 million head, which was 1.6% lower than last April. Feedlot inventories have been running below year ago levels since November 2024 and are likely to stay that way for a while as calf crops have been getting smaller.

March marketings were 1% higher than 2024, which was very close to pre-report estimates. The number that garnered the most attention was March placements, which came in 5% higher than last year. While most analysts expected Continue reading April Cattle on Feed Points to Higher Placements, but fewer Heifers →

– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Livestock Marketing Specialist, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

Can we “afford” to stocker calves this year?

How can a person afford to pay $???? for an animal and expect to make a profit? This was a question posed relative to stocker producers purchasing calves in the current market without much of a promise that they will be worth more down the road.

Though the margin is thin, there is a small profit in growing these cattle. The bigger question is how can a producer risk that much money and continue to expect the same return they expected when the purchase price was half of what it is today.

For example, if a person purchased a calf for $1,000 and then expected to profit $100 on that investment then there was a 10 percent return on the initial investment (ignoring other input costs). That same producer is now paying $2,000 for that animal and they have an expected profit of $100, which is only a 5 percent return on the initial investment. This does not make good business sense. Some will ask what are their alternatives as if there are none, but a person could stop buying and invest that money in something that has more than a 5 percent return.

– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University

Tighter cow numbers over the past few years have led to smaller calf crops and fewer cattle to sell. According to data from the USDA-AMS National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary, the number of feeder and stocker cattle sold during the first 14 weeks of 2025 totaled 3.72 million head which was 9.5 percent below the number sold during the same period in 2024. Receipts so far in 2025 are down 9 percent year to date when compared to the 4-year average from 2020-2023.

2018 was the peak in sales for the current cattle cycle as shown in the chart above. The 2024 total was 11 percent below 2018 and 4 percent below 2023. It is still early in 2025, but the current trend, and general lower cattle supply, suggest that Continue reading 2025 National Feeder and Stocker Receipts and Percentage of Heifers →

– Glynn T. Tonsor, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University

The market is dependent on continued strong demand.

On Friday, April 11^th the University of Michigan released mid-month Surveys of Consumers information (https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu) indicating U.S. consumer sentiment has declined by historic magnitudes so far in April. Reaching pessimistic levels last seen in the early 1980s, consumers hold elevating expectations for inflation (6.7% year-ahead now expected, up from 5.0% in March) and unemployment (double the November 2024 level and the highest since 2009). While differences in consumer sentiment can often vary across demographic cohort, it is noteworthy director Joanne Hsu writes: “[t]his decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation.” One of the few certainties currently is the U.S. public collectively can confidently be described as very Continue reading Cautionary Note on Beef Demand – Public Financial Sentiment Matters →

– James Mitchell and Ryan Loy, University of Arkansas

The decision to rebuild the U.S. cowherd is based on profitability—not just current prices.

According to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), cow-calf returns in 2023 and 2024 are estimated at $252 and $443 per cow, respectively. At the same time, a common concern among producers is the cost of heifers. For example, USDA-AMS data show 2024 bred heifer prices from the Missouri Show-Me-Select sales averaging over $3,000 per head, a 26 percent increase compared to 2023. Before investing in replacement heifers, whether by buying or raising your own, producers should evaluate the investment over the heifer’s entire productive life on the operation.

Whether you’re spending revenue from calf sales or borrowing, the dollars Continue reading Investing in Herd Expansion: Time Value of Money and Opportunity Cost →

– Stephen R. Koontz, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Colorado State University

Record corn production in 2025?

The week of March 31^st offered interesting information relevant to the long-term perspective associated with beef, cattle, and calf markets. Of course, the focus of last week finished with detailed information on tariffs and their timing. The asset market selloff was impressive – and not enjoyable in any capacity. Stocks, commodities, and even gold saw substantive selling. The importance of international trade to the world economy was discussed and probabilities of recession appeared to be much larger than the week prior. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures markets reacted to the events and the potential connection with a weaker domestic and world economy. This will take time to play out so…

Let’s return to the unique information in the USDA Prospective Plantings report, the implications for future feedstuffs supplies, and Continue reading Oh, Let’s Talk about the Prospective Plantings Report →

– Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky

Over the last few months, I have been able to talk with a lot of cattle producers at Extension programs. As you can imagine, the strength of the cattle market is almost always the first topic of discussion. We are seeing prices like we have never seen before for cattle of all types and weights. But my observation has been that producers tend to become a bit more enamored than they should with price per pound and sometimes don’t think as much as they should about value per head.

I see this play itself out in a couple ways. First, I hear some producers talk about selling cattle sooner to capture the higher prices. I don’t necessarily think that downside price risk is greater in high priced markets, but I think there is a perception among some that there may be “more to lose”. This perception lowers interest in adding value to cattle by taking Continue reading Don’t Chase Price per Pound at the Expense of Value per Head →