– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
The latest USDA WASDE report included estimates for beef production in 2024 and 2025. Beef production in 2024 has been significantly higher than many expected coming into the year. 2024 beef production is expected to be lower than 2023, but not as low as was expected.
USDA releases forecasts for beef production each month and have been revising forecasts higher throughout 2024 as cattle supplies and weights are reported. It was estimated last fall that 2024 beef production would be 5 or 6 percent below 2023 totals. But the most recent USDA estimate is for 2024 beef production to only be 0.9 percent below 2023.
Fed cattle weights are one the key drivers of the larger-than-expected beef production in 2024. The chart above shows weekly fed steer dressed weights. Spring and summer usually see a seasonal decline in fed cattle weights but that did not occur this year. Dressed weights have remained elevated and are unlikely to decline in the second half of the year. Lower grain prices have helped to incentivize longer feeding periods and heavier cattle. The dynamics are similar for other cattle weights too. Steer and heifer dressed weights were roughly 3 percent higher in July 2024 than in July 2023 while cow dressed weights were up 2 percent and bull weights up 4 percent.
Cattle slaughter has been lower in 2024 due to tighter cattle supplies. The chart below shows weekly cattle slaughter totals. 2024 weekly totals have been below 2023 levels nearly all year. Year-to-date, cattle slaughter is about 4 percent lower in 2024 than in the same period of 2023. The higher cattle weights are offsetting the lower cattle slaughter totals to keep total beef production only slightly below 2023 levels.
Looking ahead, the current USDA forecast is for 2025 beef production to be roughly 5 percent below 2024 totals. The underlying decrease in cattle supplies is a key piece of the beef supply story. Fewer calves on the ground in each of the past few years suggests beef supplies should be expected to decline until herd expansion begins anew. However, as 2024 shows, the cattle weights are also important in the beef supply situation.