– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
The latest monthly Livestock and Meat International Trade dataset was released last week and included the December trade estimates. This release provides a complete look at beef trade during 2021 which was a record setting year for beef exports that exceeded expectations.
According to the report, during December 2021, beef exports totaled 288 million pounds. This was one percent above December 2020 levels and exports to mainland China saw the biggest increase and exports to Mexico experienced the largest decline among the top destinations. Imports during December totaled 273 million pounds.
Considering 2021 as a whole, USDA estimates beef exports totaled 3.45 billion pounds according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This was nearly 17 percent above 2020 export levels and 9 percent higher than the previous record year 2018. Entering 2021, exports were forecasted to be 3.09 billion pounds.
Growth in beef exports to mainland China was the biggest driver of the overall growth in exports during 2021. As shown in the chart above, China (16 percent share) was the third largest destination for US beef exports during 2021 and surpassed Mexico (9 percent) and Canada (8 percent). At 23 percent of total exports, Japan was again the largest volume destination for U.S. beef exports followed closely by South Korea (22 percent). In total, the five countries in the chart below accounted for 80 percent of total exports.
Beef imports were near 2020 levels totaling 3.35 billion pounds. Canada, Mexico, and New Zealand were the primary sources of beef imports at 28, 20, and 15 percent share. Australia, typically a top two import source, was only the fourth largest at 12 percent followed by Brazil at 11 percent. Together, these five countries accounted for 87 percent of total beef imports. Imports from Australia were down 38 percent from 2020; however, their herd is expected in further rebuild in 2022 amid improving rainfall conditions.
Looking ahead, exports are expected to decline in 2022 amid higher prices and as total U.S. beef production declines due to tightening cattle supplies. USDA is currently forecasting a 2.8 percent decline in beef production during 2022 and a 5.1 percent decline in beef exports in 2022 as compared to 2021. Exports to China will again be the wild card in determining whether 2021 export levels are sustainable.