– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
USDA released two months’ worth of cattle on feed data on Friday with the November Cattle on Feed report that backfilled missing data from the government shutdown. Cattle on feed as of November 1 was 2.2 percent (260,000 head) lower than it was a year ago. Placements of cattle into feedlots was 10 percent lower during October 2025 than it was in October 2024. Marketings were down 8 percent from a year ago. For the first 10 months of 2025, total placements were 17.6 million head. This is 6.4 percent below the same period of 2024 (18.8 million head).
There continued to be significant regional differences in cattle on feed changes. The number of cattle on feed in Texas on November 1 was 8.7 percent below a year ago and Colorado was 13.2 percent below year ago. However, the other top 5 feeding states are up from a year ago – Nebraska up 2.3 percent, Kansas up 2.1 percent, and Iowa up 4.5 percent. October 2025 placements were lower in all of these states except for Iowa.
Perhaps the most interesting number in the report was the percentage of heifers on feed on October 1st (chart above). Heifers were 38.14 percent of cattle on feed which is up slightly from last quarter but down 1.5 percent from a year ago. There were 245,000 fewer heifers on feed on October 1 than there were a year ago and this was the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. Much of this decline is likely driven by the lack of spayed heifer imports from Mexico. There were 381,283 spayed heifers imported during the first nine months of 2024 compared to only 79,507 this year. Overall, the heifer on feed numbers do not yet reflect strong signs of much heifer retention in the U.S.
Nebraska surpassed Texas as the state with the most cattle on feed on November 1st. This is only the 10th month in at least the past 33 years that Texas hasn’t topped the list. The biggest news in the cattle industry on Friday came from these two states. Tyson announced it will close their packing plant in Lexington, Nebraska in January 2026. This plant has a reported capacity of 5,000 head per day and employs about 3,000 people. Tyson additionally announced it will be reducing capacity of their Amarillo, Texas plant, though it is not yet clear exactly how much they will reduce slaughter at that plant. These are both major negative changes and futures markets reacted sharply negative today with all contracts down the limit. It is unclear how sharply auction prices will respond over the next few weeks, especially with many auctions closed or slower this Thanksgiving week. There will be more to come on this topic.
