– James Mitchell, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Arkansas, Dr. Kenny Burdine, Extension Professor, Livestock Marketing, University of Kentucky, and Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
Feeder and Live Cattle futures have fallen sharply over the past 12 days. The CME December Live Cattle futures contract closed at $247.88 per cwt on October 16 but is trading today (October 27th) near $224 per cwt. The CME November Feeder Cattle futures contract closed at $380.95 per cwt on October 16 and is now trading below $339 per cwt. This period has included multiple limit-down days in the futures market. The goal of this article is to provide context for some of the key questions circulating during this market swing. We certainly don’t claim to have definitive answers as the situation remains fluid and will continue to evolve.
Argentina Beef Imports
The market shock began on October 16, following President Trump’s suggestion that there was a plan to lower beef prices. As more information emerged, it appeared that the proposal centered on increasing beef imports from Argentina. Specifically, the plan would expand the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons for Argentina beef, effectively quadrupling the volume of Argentina beef that could enter the U.S. market. Understandably, this announcement has caused considerable concern among market participants.
Could Higher Imports from Argentina Impact Beef Prices?
The short answer is: likely very little. The U.S. is already importing larger-than-normal volumes of beef due to low domestic production and historically low cattle numbers. Year to date through July, beef imports totaled 3.4 billion pounds, up 30% from the same period last year. The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast 2025 U.S. beef imports at 5.4 billion pounds, or about 18.4% of total U.S. beef disappearance. The proposed TRQ increase for Argentina—an additional 60,000 metric tons—would account for less than 1% of total disappearance, even if fully utilized.
It is also important to recognize that “beef” is not a single product but a diverse portfolio of products serving different market segments. The U.S. imports primarily lean manufacturing beef used in ground beef production, while the domestic industry produces a larger share of grain-fed, high-quality cuts. As a result, imports tend to supplement the domestic ground beef market rather than directly compete in the U.S. grain-fed beef market. Both the volume and composition of imports are critical for assessing their impact on domestic beef prices and it’s hard to see how either would drastically change overall volume or import composition in the United States.
Live Cattle Imports
Markets also had to react to news about a potential meeting this week between the U.S. and Mexico to discuss a possible reopening of the southern border to live cattle imports. The U.S.-Mexico border was first closed to live animal trade on November 2024 following a detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico and remains closed today. Between February and May 2025, when the border was briefly open, weekly feeder cattle imports from Mexico averaged 14,900 head—about 43% lower than the 2020-2024 weekly average.
If a hypothetical agreement were reached to reopen the border, it would likely occur gradually and involve limited entry. In addition, many of the cattle that would have been exported while the border was closed have already entered alternative marketing channels. Therefore, there is little evidence of a significant backlog of Mexican cattle awaiting import. Even if some inventories were available, a phased reopening would somewhat limit any increase in supply that could disrupt U.S. cattle markets.
Have the Fundamentals Changed?
To be clear, recent developments have certainly impacted cattle markets, but they have not materially changed the underlying fundamentals. The U.S. still faces historically tight cattle supplies and lower beef production. While beef cow slaughter has declined notably in 2025, there is little indication of widespread beef heifer retention. When herd rebuilding does begin, fewer animals will enter the beef supply chain in the near term, further tightening supplies. Beef supplies are tight now and will be tighter in 2026. Heifer retention is the key to longer term cattle and beef supply expansion and that is a multi-year process.
It is still too soon to determine the full impact of these market shocks on cash cattle markets. Prices for 500- to 600-pound steers were mostly 1% to 3% lower last week, with a few exceptions. Heavier feeder cattle prices also declined 1% to 3%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 2.5%, or $9 per cwt from the previous week. Given that cattle futures were down sharply today (October 27th), continued weakness in cash markets is very possible this week. While this is more significant than a seasonal decline, it is worth noting that the prices of heavy feeders tend to decrease as we move through fall and approach winter. Regardless, the last couple of weeks have spoken to the importance of price risk management and stakeholders should pay close attention as things continue to develop.