Source: Wall Street Journal (1/19/24)
Party Backing China in Taiwan Fights to Survive
By Chun Han Wong
Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih speaks at a campaign rally. I- HWA CHENG/ AGENCE FRANCE- PRESSE/ GETTY IMAGES
TAIPEI—Beijing’s closest political partner in Taiwan is fighting to remain relevant in an island democracy where voters increasingly see a future that is detached from an authoritarian China.
The Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, once governed China and had dominated Taiwanese politics for decades. It is now on its longest losing streak in presidential elections since this self-ruled island started choosing its leader by popular vote, consigned to a third straight term in opposition.
Whether the century-old party can get back on its feet has ramifications for Taipei’s rocky relationship with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory and considers the KMT a useful partner in efforts to assimilate the island. The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijingfriendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force.
KMT leaders have put on a brave face, saying they still have the clout to keep Taiwan’s ruling party in check during the next four years. But many members worry that, without decisive overhauls, one of Asia’s oldest political parties could fade into irrelevance, as more Taiwanese embrace a local identity separate from China and reject the KMT’s perceived coziness with Beijing.
“The middle class has already given up illusions on China,” said Jason Hsu, a 45year-old former KMT lawmaker and now a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. “The Kuomintang, in the next four years, must change its China strategy, if it is ever to come back to power.”
The KMT faces a dilemma. Backing away from its founding goal of governing a unified Chinese nation could prompt an aggressive response from Beijing. But a KMT unable to regain power would do little to halt the coalescing of an entrenched Taiwanese identity— an outcome some party grandees, and Beijing, want to avoid.
In some ways, the KMT has been toughening its stance on China. It picked a presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, who came from a family with deep Taiwanese roots and—on the campaign trail—promised to be forceful in dealing with Beijing and defending Taiwan’s democracy. “I’ve never had an unrealistic idea about mainland China’s attitude toward us,” Hou told The Wall Street Journal in December.
Even so, Hou finished second in the presidential race with 33% of the vote, trailing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, the current vice president, by about 7 percentage points. A third-party leader, Ko Wen-je, received roughly 26%.
Although the KMT lost by a slimmer margin, insiders and political analysts say the result confirmed the party’s inability to appeal to young Taiwanese— many of whom flocked to the third party that Ko, a former Taipei mayor, founded less than five years ago.
Defeat has triggered introspection and infighting within the Kuomintang. Some members criticized the party leadership and called on KMT Chair-man Eric Chu to resign. Others faulted Ko for splitting the opposition vote, after a last-ditch attempt to pair Hou and Ko on a joint ticket collapsed.
Chu, a former presidential candidate who represents a moderate voice within the KMT, pointed to the party’s improved showing in this year’s legislative races. It clinched 52 seats to form the largest caucus in Taiwan’s 113 member Legislative Yuan, compared with the ruling DPP’s 51.
Chu says he plans to stay on as chairman until the end of his term next year. “The Kuomintang must continue to reform,” particularly by refreshing its ranks with younger members, Chu said on Wednesday. “I will continue to endure humiliation and bear burdens, push reforms, and nurture more talent.”
Whatever the Kuomintang does, it will struggle to regain public support unless it also makes fundamental changes to its China policy, say some political experts.