– Stephen Boyles, OSU Extension Beef Specialist
This information is synthesized from the National Institute for Animal Agriculture’s Annual Conference, “U.S. Animal Agriculture’s Future Role in World Food Production – Obstacles & Opportunities” conducted in 2017, Columbus, Ohio. Full presentations are available online at www.animalagriculture.org
The human population has risen from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.2 billion with a further 3 billion projected by 2050. Food consumption, particularly meat consumption per capita, has increased as living standards rose in China post-1970s, India post-1980s and more recently other areas of the world such as Vietnam, Thailand, Iran, Brazil, etc. As a result, cropland has risen 45% and grazing land by 10% since the early 1960s.
Developed Nations: There will be little change in affluent nations. Human numbers have stabilized in these nations, which had a combined population of 1.3 billion people. A modest growth in food demand is predicted.
Emerging Economies and Poor Economies: In emerging economies with 5.0 billion people, increases in food demand are predicted due more to rising average incomes rather than to population growth. In contrast, food demand will increase rapidly well past 2050 in the world’s least developed countries, which have a combined population of 0.9 billion people. Predominantly located in Sub-Saharan Africa, these countries are experiencing rapid population growth not least because of elevated human fertility (currently 4.5 births per woman, on average) Income growth tends to translate directly into food purchases in poor parts of the world.
Wealthy nations will continue to feed their own population with ease. Emerging economies are expected to feed themselves with a combination of domestic production and imports funded by non-agricultural exports. In least developed countries where human numbers are expected to triple to 2.9 billion in 2100, food insecurity is widespread as is reliance on food aid.
Global Trade: Opportunities and Challenges: United States agriculture will play an international role. Exports of beef and beef products account for $7 billion in profits and add $307 per head in value. For pork, 26% is exported which adds $62 per head in value to each hog marketed. Readers will want to follow what happens to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which involves the U.S., Mexico and Canada. The second outstanding global trade unknown is the Asian/Pacific region. That region includes many of the countries that were part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations such as Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia. Currently, China has 188 cities larger than Chicago. While the ‘next big economies’ of the ‘BRIC’ countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) offer opportunities, the ‘MINT’ countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) also are worth exporters’ attentions.