– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
The number of cattle in the U.S. declined for the fifth consecutive year according to data released last week in the USDA Cattle Inventory report. The report was generally in line with pre-report estimates. The eye-popping statistic is that the total number of cattle and calves (including dairy) was at the lowest level since 1951 after a 1.9 percent decline from 2023-2024. However, for this article I want to focus on beef cows and highlight some of the state-level changes.
The total number of beef cows was reported at 28.2 million head for the U.S. as of January 1, 2024. This was a 2.5 percent decline from January 1, 2023, and was the third consecutive annual decline of greater than 2 percent. The beef cow herd is now 11 percent smaller than it was in 2019.
At the state level, 33 states experienced declines in the number of beef cows from 2023 to 2024. Kentucky is the 8th largest state in terms of beef cows and was the only state in the top 17 that saw an increase in beef cows (up 12 thousand head). Arkansas and Mississippi experienced 19 thousand and 15 thousand head declines in beef cows, respectively. Alabama had the largest drop in the southeast with a 40 thousand head decline. Beef cow head counts dropped the most in the three largest beef cow states: Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. The combined 370 thousand head decline in these states represented more than half of the total U.S. decline (716 thousand head).
The tighter supplies of beef cows will mean a smaller calf crop in 2024. This will lead to fewer cattle in feedlots and ultimately less beef produced over the next few years. The 2023 calf crop (beef and dairy) was estimated at 33.6 million head which was the second lowest total since 1949. The U.S. beef cattle industry is certainly more productive than it was decades ago. Advances in management and technology have led to increased beef production from fewer animals. So, we aren’t dropping back to 1950’s beef production totals. But the impact of fewer cattle will lead to tighter beef supplies than we’ve had in recent years.
When will expansion in the beef cattle sector occur again? The simple but incomplete answer is expansion will occur when expected calf prices reach levels that encourage most producers to absorb the cost of retaining heifers and keeping cows. Rising costs of production have complicated that decision in recent years. Moderating drought conditions and feed prices could set the stage for the start of some expansion in 2024. Cattle prices are high and are likely to go higher. Heifer retention has not yet begun by any widespread metrics. Cattle prices are being supported by tight feeder cattle supplies which will get even tighter when producers start holding back more heifers for breeding purposes. Overall, the estimates in the Cattle Inventory or supportive of strong cattle prices in 2024.
