– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
The latest beef trade dataset was released last week by USDA ERS and showed declines in beef exports compared to a year ago. Overall beef exports were down 16.5 percent in May 2023 as compared to May 2022. Imports were 5.6 percent higher in May 2023 compared to May 2022.
U.S. beef was exported to 88 different countries during May 2023 according to the data while the top six countries accounted for 87 percent of all beef exports. South Korea was the largest destination at 24.1 percent of total beef exports. Japan (18.1 percent), China (17.5 percent), Canada (11.2 percent), Mexico (8.9 percent) and Taiwan (7 percent) round out the top six destinations. Exports to Japan dropped the most during May – down 37.3 percent as compared to May 2022.
Five countries accounted for 88 percent of beef imports in May 2023. Canada and Mexico were the largest import sources at 23.9 and 19.9 percent, respectively. New Zealand (18.2 percent), Australia (16.9 percent), and Brazil (9.4 percent) round out the top five. The remaining 12 percent of imports came from Nicaragua (4.7 percent), Uruguay (4.4 percent), Argentina (1.5 percent), and eight other countries with a less than one percent share. Imports from Australia have seen a big increase in 2023 and are up 24 percent through May as compared to 2022.
Exports were 10.8 percent lower and imports were 0.6 percent lower during the first 5 months of 2023 as compared to the same months in 2022. Exports have been lower in 2023 for a variety of reasons. Tightening cattle and beef production in the U.S. along with higher prices are contributing to lower exports and will likely continue to do so. The strong value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies of many trading partners is also a factor. A stronger U.S. dollar relative to another currency means that U.S. beef becomes relatively more expensive because it takes more of the other currency to purchase a dollar’s worth of U.S. beef. Conversely, imports become relatively cheaper as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Mexico is somewhat unique because the value of the Mexican peso has appreciated significantly relative to the U.S. dollar over the past year. This has contributed to the 10.4 percent increase in YTD exports to Mexico (and 11.9 percent decrease in YTD imports). Mexico is the only country of the top six export destinations that has seen an increase in U.S. beef exports in 2023.
