– Dr. Andrew Griffith, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tennessee

I have been asked to do a program early next year that focuses on step-by-step marketing. At first thought this would seem extremely elementary to most readers and maybe it is to some. However, my experience has been that many producers who have been in the cattle business for decades do not even consider that every decision they make influences their final product and the marketing scheme.

Thinking about the basics, the breeding season, breed of cattle, and cattle genetics would be the starting point for most producers. However, those decisions should not be made until an intended market is identified such as selling feeder cattle at the auction market, retained ownership through the feedlot, direct marketing of beef or whatever market is the intended endpoint. After identifying an endpoint, every management decision can influence the final market, but a producer does not have to stay with the initial endpoint if market conditions present a better opportunity.

This is a fluid business which is one reason it is so enjoyable.

– Matthew Diersen, Risk & Business Management Specialist, Ness School of Management & Economics, South Dakota State University

The October Cattle on Feed report was very close to trade expectations. Placements during September were 2.1 million head, slightly above expectations. Marketings during September were 1.7 million head, even with expectations. The 11.3 million head on feed is 99 percent of a year ago. The placements by weight categories reflected a slight decrease in the volume placed at the heaviest weight classes, which should be somewhat supportive of prices in the short run. There was also a slight decrease in placements in the lightest weight class, suggesting limited selling pressure from cow-calf producers.

As it was the beginning of the quarter, there was also a breakdown of inventory levels by steers and heifers. The heifer mix, at 39.1 percent of cattle on feed, is larger than last quarter and a year ago. The continued high proportion of heifers confirms fewer held as replacements. It also suggests that lower production is expected as heifers are harvested at lighter weights than steers. The higher heifer mix should be supportive of live cattle prices for the next quarter.

Using data from recent Livestock Slaughter reports, beef cattle slaughter volume for the third quarter was Continue reading Inventory Insights →

– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University

The latest Livestock and Meat Monthly Trade data from the Economic Research Service (ERS) was released on October 7th and included the month of August 2019 as the most recent data available. The purpose of this article is not just to discuss the export data from this report, but also to discuss an important but complex factor that impacts trade: the value of the U.S. dollar.

To the ERS report first, beef exports were lower in August 2019 as compared to July 2019 and also to August 2018. For January-August, beef exports were 3.8 percent lower than in the same period of 2018. Exports to Japan, the top U.S. beef export destination, were down 8.6 percent during this time period. Exports to South Korea were up 8 percent. Together, these two countries accounted for 50.5 percent of U.S. beef exports during data available for 2019. The October USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report lowered the 2019 projection for beef exports to 3.126 billion pounds which would be about a 1 percent decline compared to 2018.

Now let’s shift focus to the value of the U.S. dollar. For many of us, we might first think about Continue reading Exports and the Impact of the U.S. Dollar Value on Beef Trade →