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Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 29, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  In this final episode of Weekly Commodity Market Update, Will and Ben talk about the EPA approving E-15 summer sales, and planting continuing slowly.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • EPA approves E15 for summer season
  • Planting continues slowly
  • Consumer sentiment drops in April
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.78
  • December 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.49
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.04 at $10.35
  • May soybean oil up 1.42 cents at 49.28 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.80 at $290.00/short ton
  • May wheat down $.18 at $5.30
  • July 2025 wheat down $.16 at $5.45
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.53 cents at 66.85 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton up 1.53 cents at 69.97 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.55 at $12.935/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.07 at $13.475/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $0.85 at $62.53/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged 8% in April. The 52.5 reading is the fourth lowest monthly reading since records began in 1952.

For the third consecutive week crude oil stocks were higher (+10.3 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 188 and 98.8 million gallons respectively. Implied gasoline consumption increased sharply on the week and to a calendar year high.

U.S. ethanol production increased to 304 million gallons after matching a calendar year low the week prior. Ethanol stocks decreased 56 million gallons and fell below the same level this time last year.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were as expected but down week over week. Sales in million bushels reported for corn (45.4) and soybeans (10.2) were neutral. There were net cancelations of 5.3 million bushels of wheat across classes. Rice sales of 1.1 million hundredweight were a four-week high.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 0.5% week over week. Producers and merchants were net buyers, shrinking their short positions 44,084 contracts. Money managers were net buyers of 1,743 contracts- decreasing their short position.

Grain and oilseed export inspections were bullish for wheat at 23.8 million bushels while neutral for corn (65.1), soybeans (16.1) and grain sorghum (0.855).

U.S. corn planting was 24% this week- a little behind the 28% average for this time of year and a little slower than trade expectations of 25%. U.S. soybean planting is at 18% ahead the 12% on average and the 17% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 49% good to excellent- up 4 points from the week prior and up 2 percentage points from pre-report trade exceptions.

Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 22, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss how tightening corn ending stocks sets the futures market up for gains if adverse weather lowers yield potential this summer.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn carryout tightens
  • Wet planting conditions
  • March NOPA report
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.08 at $4.82
  • December 2025 corn up $.03 at $4.66
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.35
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.06 at $10.31
  • May soybean oil up 0.51 cents at 47.86 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.80 at $295.80/short ton
  • May wheat down $.07 at $5.48
  • July 2025 wheat down $.09 at $5.61
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.43 cents at 66.32 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 0.07 cents at 68.44 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.02 at $13.485/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.12 at $13.545/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $3.07 at $64.57/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. retail sales in March surged to a 26-month high. Consumer product chains warn that it was a lot of panic buying ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs on imports.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 194.6 million bushels in March- down 3 million from expectations, but up 16.7 million bushels from the disappointing February value.

Again, this week crude oil stocks were higher (+21.6 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 82.2 and 77.7 million gallons respectively. U.S. gasoline demand was flat week over week.

U.S. ethanol production fell to 298 million gallons matching a calendar year low. Ethanol stocks decreased 9.24 million gallons, but remain seasonally high.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were mixed. Corn sales of 61.5 million bushels are 2.5 months high, soybean sales of 20.4 million bushels are a six-week high. Grain sorghum and cotton export sales were average. Wheat and rice sales were somewhat disappointing.

U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1, 2025 was down 1.6% year over year- nearly matching expectations. Placements and marketings in March at +5.1% and +1.1%, respectively were both slightly higher than expected.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 4% week over week. Producers and merchants were net sellers expanding their short position while money mangers were net buyers of 208,757 contracts- decreasing their short position.

U.S. export inspections were bullish for grains and neutral to bullish for oilseeds for the second straight week. Corn and wheat inspections came in above all expectations at 67.0 and 18.7 million bushels, respectively. Soybean inspections were as expected at 20.2 million bushels.

U.S. corn planting was 4% this week- a little behind the 5% average for this time of year and behind the 6% trade expectation. U.S. soybean planting is at 2% matching the 2% on average but also behind the 3% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 47% good to excellent- down 1 point from the week prior but matching trade expectations. The value compares to 55% good to excellent this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben review the latest USDA acreage and stocks numbers and take a look at what Trump’s reciprocal tariffs mean for agriculture.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA acreage numbers
  • USDA stocks report
  • Trump administration tariff actions
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  •  May 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.53
  • December 2025 corn down $.09 at $4.42
  • May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.23
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.22 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil up 3.15 cents at 45.16 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $6.80 at $293.50/short ton
  • May wheat down $.30 at $5.28
  • July 2025 wheat down $.32 at $5.42
  • May 2025 cotton up 1.63 cents at 66.90 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton up 1.43 cents at 70.09 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice up $0.095 at $13.515/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice up $0.10 at $13.755/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $0.91 at $69.28/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer confidence dropped in March to 92.9, down 7.2 points from 100.1 in February. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Personal incomes were higher than expected in February while spending was slightly less. The PCE index at 0.3% matched expectations and the prior months increase signaling prices remain stubborn.

Energy stocks were largely down week over week. Crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve was down 140.3 million gallons, gasoline down 60.7 million gallons, and distillate fuel down 17.7 million gallons.

US ethanol production decreased to 310 million gallons- down from 325 million gallons the week prior and matching the same volume last year. US ethanol stocks increased 32.6 million gallons.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were largely as expected, but mostly down week over week and recent volumes. Corn sales- 49.9 million bushels, soybean sales-12.4 million bushels, wheat- 3.7 million bushels, rice- 2.2 million hundredweight, and cotton- 89,000 bales.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 0.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 109,703 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 108,996 contracts.

USDA released grain stocks as of March 1- grain stocks were nearly as estimated across the board. Corn and rough rice stocks were down year over year, while soybean and sorghum stocks were up year over year.

USDA reported farmers intend to plant 95.3 million corn acres, 83.5 million soybean acres, 6.09 million soft red winter wheat acres, 9.87 million cotton acres, and 2.9 million rice acres.

Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were relatively strong this week. Corn exports of 63.6 million bushels were bullish coming in above all pre-report expectations. Soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat exports at 29.1, 0.9, and 16.0 million bushels were at the top end of expectations.

That’s “a lotta” Corn

Source: USDA

Nationally, corn planted area for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, up 5 percent or 4.73 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States.

Ohio farmers intend to plant less corn and more soybean acreage in 2025 than they did last year, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office.
Ohio corn producers intend to plant 3.25 million acres of corn this spring, down 4 percent from last year. Ohio soybean acreage is forecast at 5.10 million acres for 2025, up 1 percent from last year. Hay harvested area for 2025 is estimated at 830 thousand acres, up 5 percent from 2024. This includes alfalfa, grain, and all other types of hay intended to be harvested for dry hay.

Winter wheat acreage for 2025 harvest is estimated at 570,000 acres, up 10 percent from the previous year.

U.S. soybean planted area for 2025 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating States.

Nationally, all wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, down 2 percent from 2024. If realized, this represents the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down less than 1 percent from last year. Of this total, about 23.6 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.09 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.66 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 10.0 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024 estimate. Of this total, about 9.40 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2025 is expected to total 2.02 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous year.

Ohio Farm Resolution Services

Ohio has over 76,000 farms and 13 million acres of farmland.  In such a large and diverse industry, conflicts commonly arise that can lead to disputes, litigation, and appeals.  Ultimately, these conflicts can cause harmful effects that threaten the viability of Ohio agriculture.

The goal of Ohio Farm Resolution Services at The Ohio State University (OFRS) is to cultivate solutions to the conflicts that impact Ohio’s farms and farm families.  Established in October of 2023 with funding from the USDA Farm Service Agency’s Certified Mediation Program, OFRS serves Ohio agriculture with a three-pronged approach to helping resolve farm conflicts that will provide:

  1. Educational resources on Ohio farm conflict issues.
  2. Conflict resolution and consultation services by OSU Extension legal and farm management specialists.
  3. Formal mediation services by trained mediators.

What issues will we cover? The types of issues OFRS will address include:

  • Family communication
  • Farm transition planning
  • Business entities/ practices
  • Energy leases
  • Farm leases
  • Zoning
  • Land Use
  • Labor
  • Neighbor issues
  • Lender/creditor
  • Property disputes
  • Farmland drainage
  • Crops/Agronomics
  • USDA/ODA appeals
  • Estate disputes
  • Other farm related issues

If you have a farm conflict issue we can help you with now, please e-mail program director Robert Moore at moore.301@osu.edu.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben look at the growing competition in South American soybean production and emerging export opportunities.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Black Sea wheat outlook
  • Chinese soybean demand
  • South American soybean production
  • Corn export opportunity in Japan
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn up $.06 at $4.64
  • December 2025 corn flat at $4.51
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.09
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.11 at $10.07
  • May soybean oil up 0.42 cents at 42.01 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.60 at $300.30/short ton
  • May wheat up $.01 at $5.58
  • July 2025 wheat up $.01 at $5.74
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.1 cents at 65.27 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 1.32 cents at 68.66 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.41 at $68.37/barrel

Weekly highlights:

US housing starts at 1.50 million exceeded expectations of 1.38 million and the 1.35 million in January.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged this week at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased economic uncertainty and lowering its growth forecast for the year.

US crude oil stocks were up 73.3 million gallons, while gasoline and distillate stocks were down 22.1 and 118.1 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week over week, but still up 1% from the prior four-week average.

US ethanol production increased to an impressive 325 million gallons- up from 312 million gallons last week and 308 million gallons this time last year. Ethanol stocks were down 33.6 million gallons week over week but still 7% higher than the five-year average.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were mixed- corn sales were again strong at 58.9 million bushels. However, soybean export sales of 13.0 million bushels fell below all expectations Wheat sales were especially disappointing at net cancelations of -9.1 million bushels- 20 million bushels below the most bearish estimate.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 1.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 8,793 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 43,637 contracts to -205,435 contracts.

Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to bullish on the week. Corn and soybean shipments of 57.6 and 30.2 million bushels, respectively were toward the top end of expectations, while wheat shipments of 17.8 million bushels topped all pre-report expectations. There were no grain sorghum inspections.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben break down USDA’s record ag trade deficit projection and incoming US ag export tariffs.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA expects record ag trade deficit
  • Tariffs hitting US ag exports
  • Ethanol stocks swell
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.36 at $4.69
  • December 2025 corn down $.15 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.32 at $10.25
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.30 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil down 3.22 cents at 44.12 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.70 at $300.20/short ton
  • May wheat down $.49 at $5.55
  • July 2025 wheat down $.48 at $5.69
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.09 cents at 65.25 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $1.27 at 67.88 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $0.88 at $69.34/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Personal incomes increased 0.9% in January- partially aided by social security updates and state level minimum wage increases, but consumer spending fell 0.2% month over month- the first decline in 22 months, vs expectations of a 0.1% gain.

US energy stocks were up across the board. Crude oil stocks increased 98 million gallons on the week, gasoline stocks increased 17 million gallons, and distillate fuel stocks were up 164 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back just slightly to 318 million gallons produced- vs 319 million gallons, but sharply lower ethanol exports caused ethanol stocks to jump to their largest volume since April 2020.

US ethanol producers used 457.4 million bushels of corn in January according to USDA. The volume was down from the volume in December and a pretty disappointing volume for the month of January.

US soybean crushers crushed 212.6 million bushels of soybeans in January. The value exceeded all pre-report expectations and was slightly bullish to the soybean market.

At the USDA Ag Outlook Forum- USDA estimated corn and soybean acreage at 94.0 and 84.0 million acres, respectively. Yields were estimated at 181.0 and 52.5 bushels per acre, respectively.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were bearish on the week. Corn sales of 31.3 million bushels came in below all pre-report estimates. Wheat sales of 9.9 million bushels were also below all pre-report estimates. Soybeans sales at 15.1 million bushels were within expectations but down week over week.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds were down 11.2% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 6.7% and managed money holders reduced their net long position 26.1% or 57,650 contracts. Money managers are net long the complex 162,917 contracts.

Weekly export inspections for US grains and oilseeds were all as expected. Corn and sorghum shipments of 53.2 and 0.6 million bushels, respectively were up week over week, while soybean inspections of 25.5 million bushels were down week over week and wheat shipments were flat at 14.3 million bushels.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben dive into the upcoming opening crop balance sheet for the 2025 season.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA balance sheet out on Friday
  • A record oilseed crush falls below expectations
  • The impact of dropping consumer sentiment
  • Cattle on feed’s impact to feed grains
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • March 2025 corn up $.09 at $5.05
  • December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.70
  • March 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.57
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.07 at $10.59
  • March soybean oil up 0.74 cents at 46.81 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $1.10 at $294.80/short ton
  • March wheat up $.10 at $5.90
  • July 2025 wheat down $.08 at $6.17
  • March 2025 cotton down 1.03 cents at 66.08 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $0.24 at 69.15 cents/lb
  • October WTI Crude Oil down $0.49 at $70.22/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer Sentiment declined significantly in February to 64.7 vs 71.7 in January and below expectations of 68.0.

US crude oil stocks increased 195 million gallons on the week- the four straight week. US gasoline stocks were mostly flat on slightly lower weekly demand. Distillate stocks were down 86 million gallons.

US ethanol production increased just slightly to 319 million gallons- up from 218 million last week but matching the volume this time last year. Ethanol ending stocks were up 22 million gallons and are 3% higher than last year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 200.4 million bushels in January- a new record for January, but below expectations. The implied soybean oil demand number was bullish despite a bearish crush report.

Grain and oilseed export sales were neutral on the week with corn sales of 57.2 million bushels, soybean sales of 17.6 million bushels, grain sorghum at 870,00 bushels, and all wheat sales at 19.6 million bushels. Soybean oil sales came in above all expectations after being negative the week prior.

Cattle on Feed in as of February 1 was reported at 11.716 million head- 99.3% of last year. The report was seen as neutral to slightly bullish with both placements and marketings coming in higher than last year.

Open interest in futures and options contracts of grains and oilseeds was up 1.5% week over week with producer and merchants increasing their net short position 3.4% and money managers increasing their net long position a combined 39,366 contracts- all of which were nearly exact opposites of the week prior.

US grain and oilseed export inspections were all as expected today although down week over week for corn and up week over week for soybeans and total wheats.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben look at Brazil’s progress in the sustainable aviation fuel sector.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Wheat rally
  • Weekend Russian attacks
  • U.S. weather impacts
  • Planting progress
  • Brazil’s delivery of SAFs to U.S.
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn up $.08 at $4.39
  • December 2024 corn up $.03 at $4.72
  • May 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $11.61
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.04 at $11.71
  • May soybean oil up 0.19 cents at 45.66 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $5.80 at $344.30/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.19 at $5.70
  • July 2024 wheat up $.20 at $5.87
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $82.01/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer retail sales rose 0.7% in March and outlays in February were also stronger than previously reported, indicating the economy got a boost from consumer spending in the first quarter.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up another 115 million gallons from the week prior. Crude oil stocks have increased 628 gallons over the past month.  Conversely, US gasoline and distillate stocks were down 48 and 116 million gallons respectively. On the lower gasoline stocks- the average regular gasoline price was up 4 cents week over week.
  • Ethanol production pulled back sharply to 289 million gallons- down 21 million from the week prior as several plants took scheduled maintenance. Ethanol stocks levels decreased 5 million gallons but remain at relatively large levels.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-1.9%), corn (-1.7%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (-19.6%) and rice (-77%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+5.8%) and soybean oil (+3.8%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (16,016 contracts) soybeans (28,565 contracts) and Chicago wheat (14,455 contracts). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.821 head or 101.5% of last year but below the 102.1% trade estimate. March cattle placements at 87.7% of last year were well below the 93.0% trade estimate with marketings of 86.3% year over year- down from a 88.1% expectation.
  • Export sales for the most recent week were neutral to bearish with corn sales of 19.7 million bushels only slightly better than the marketing year low set the week prior of 12.8 million. Soybean sales made a counter seasonal move of 17.8 million bushels. There were net cancelations of 0.1 and 3.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and wheat respectively.
  • Export inspections were supportive to corn and grain sorghum while neutral to soybeans and wheat. Reported corn inspections of 63.9 million bushels were the largest of the marketing year and highest weekly volume in nearly 2 years.
  • National corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete- ahead of 10% on average. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8%- double the five-year average. Of states reporting plantings- most states are ahead of average.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating dropped a surprising 10 points to 336 (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 270 this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways to lower commodity trading
  • Corn stocks estimates drop
  • Soybean stocks estimates rise
  • Soybean crush sets all-time record
  • Brazilian production shifts
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.31
  • December 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.69
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.23 at $11.58
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.67
  • May soybean oil down 2.43 cents at 45.47 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.50 at $338.50/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat down $.14 at $5.51
  • July 2024 wheat down $.13 at $5.67
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $.73 at $84.88/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose to 3.5% in March, higher than expectation and the third consecutive month of increasing inflation. Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected Federal Funds rate cut out to September compared to June moments before the report.
  • The Producer Price Index, another measure of inflation, rose 2.1% from March 2023, which was the largest monthly year over year gain in nearly a year. This was slightly down from an expectation of 2.2%. Month over month prices were up 0.2% compared to up 0.6% in February and pre-report expectations of up 0.3%.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up 245 million gallons from the week prior. Similarly, US gasoline and distillate stocks were up on lower demand and higher imports. Crude oil prices have eased from their highs experienced last week on easing geopolitical tensions but the risk is still present.
  • Ethanol production pulled back 310 million gallons- down 5 million from the week prior. Ethanol margins decreased to end March but have started to move higher again despite near record ethanol stock levels. Margins remain positive for ethanol producers.
  • USDA lowered US corn ending stocks to 2.122 down 50 million bushels on the month but not as much as the 70-million-bushel drop expected. Demand was increased 25 million bushels for both corn exports and ethanol use.
  • USDA increased soybean ending stocks 25 million bushels on the month and 23 million more than what was expected after cuts to exports, seed and residual more than overcorrect for lower imports.
  • Brazil’s CONAB reduced both total corn production and soybean production for the country 1.8 and 0.5 million metric tons respectively. Both are noticeably lower than USDA’s April numbers.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-4.1%), corn (-2.8%), soybean oil (-1.8%), soybean meal (-2.0%), cotton (-11.1%) and rice (-5.9%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+1.0%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (3,998) and soybeans (1,054). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again. Traders decreased their net short of Chicago Wheats 1,239 contracts.
  • Last week Bloomberg reported Chinese importers canceled “four or five cargos” of Ukrainian corn booked for delivery in an effort to support local prices ahead of planting.
  • Export sales for week ending March 4th were bearish and pulled the market lower. Corn sales of 12.8 million bushels were the lowest of the marketing year and fell well below expectations. Soybean and wheat sales were also on the low end of expectations.
  • Export inspections with the exception of wheats were flat to lower and uninspiring. The reported soybean volume was the lowest since Mid-September as volumes continue to move seasonally lower. Wheat exports exceeded all pre-report expectations.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a record high 196.4 million bushels in March. This was 1.2 million bushels below the average trade estimate ahead of the report. The soybean oil stocks volume was on the top end of expectations and the fifth consecutive month of volumes exceeding the average trade estimate.
  • As expected, planting picked up in the western corn belt last week. Six percent of the US corn crop is planted compared to 3% last week and an average pace of 5%. The first soybean planting progress came in at 3% up from an average of 1%. Cotton and rice were 8% and 44% respectively.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating slipped just slightly to 346 down from 348 last week (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 273 last year.