Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben look at Brazil’s progress in the sustainable aviation fuel sector.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Wheat rally
  • Weekend Russian attacks
  • U.S. weather impacts
  • Planting progress
  • Brazil’s delivery of SAFs to U.S.
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn up $.08 at $4.39
  • December 2024 corn up $.03 at $4.72
  • May 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $11.61
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.04 at $11.71
  • May soybean oil up 0.19 cents at 45.66 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $5.80 at $344.30/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.19 at $5.70
  • July 2024 wheat up $.20 at $5.87
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $82.01/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer retail sales rose 0.7% in March and outlays in February were also stronger than previously reported, indicating the economy got a boost from consumer spending in the first quarter.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up another 115 million gallons from the week prior. Crude oil stocks have increased 628 gallons over the past month.  Conversely, US gasoline and distillate stocks were down 48 and 116 million gallons respectively. On the lower gasoline stocks- the average regular gasoline price was up 4 cents week over week.
  • Ethanol production pulled back sharply to 289 million gallons- down 21 million from the week prior as several plants took scheduled maintenance. Ethanol stocks levels decreased 5 million gallons but remain at relatively large levels.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-1.9%), corn (-1.7%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (-19.6%) and rice (-77%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+5.8%) and soybean oil (+3.8%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (16,016 contracts) soybeans (28,565 contracts) and Chicago wheat (14,455 contracts). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.821 head or 101.5% of last year but below the 102.1% trade estimate. March cattle placements at 87.7% of last year were well below the 93.0% trade estimate with marketings of 86.3% year over year- down from a 88.1% expectation.
  • Export sales for the most recent week were neutral to bearish with corn sales of 19.7 million bushels only slightly better than the marketing year low set the week prior of 12.8 million. Soybean sales made a counter seasonal move of 17.8 million bushels. There were net cancelations of 0.1 and 3.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and wheat respectively.
  • Export inspections were supportive to corn and grain sorghum while neutral to soybeans and wheat. Reported corn inspections of 63.9 million bushels were the largest of the marketing year and highest weekly volume in nearly 2 years.
  • National corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete- ahead of 10% on average. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8%- double the five-year average. Of states reporting plantings- most states are ahead of average.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating dropped a surprising 10 points to 336 (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 270 this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways to lower commodity trading
  • Corn stocks estimates drop
  • Soybean stocks estimates rise
  • Soybean crush sets all-time record
  • Brazilian production shifts
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.31
  • December 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.69
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.23 at $11.58
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.67
  • May soybean oil down 2.43 cents at 45.47 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.50 at $338.50/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat down $.14 at $5.51
  • July 2024 wheat down $.13 at $5.67
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $.73 at $84.88/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose to 3.5% in March, higher than expectation and the third consecutive month of increasing inflation. Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected Federal Funds rate cut out to September compared to June moments before the report.
  • The Producer Price Index, another measure of inflation, rose 2.1% from March 2023, which was the largest monthly year over year gain in nearly a year. This was slightly down from an expectation of 2.2%. Month over month prices were up 0.2% compared to up 0.6% in February and pre-report expectations of up 0.3%.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up 245 million gallons from the week prior. Similarly, US gasoline and distillate stocks were up on lower demand and higher imports. Crude oil prices have eased from their highs experienced last week on easing geopolitical tensions but the risk is still present.
  • Ethanol production pulled back 310 million gallons- down 5 million from the week prior. Ethanol margins decreased to end March but have started to move higher again despite near record ethanol stock levels. Margins remain positive for ethanol producers.
  • USDA lowered US corn ending stocks to 2.122 down 50 million bushels on the month but not as much as the 70-million-bushel drop expected. Demand was increased 25 million bushels for both corn exports and ethanol use.
  • USDA increased soybean ending stocks 25 million bushels on the month and 23 million more than what was expected after cuts to exports, seed and residual more than overcorrect for lower imports.
  • Brazil’s CONAB reduced both total corn production and soybean production for the country 1.8 and 0.5 million metric tons respectively. Both are noticeably lower than USDA’s April numbers.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-4.1%), corn (-2.8%), soybean oil (-1.8%), soybean meal (-2.0%), cotton (-11.1%) and rice (-5.9%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+1.0%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (3,998) and soybeans (1,054). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again. Traders decreased their net short of Chicago Wheats 1,239 contracts.
  • Last week Bloomberg reported Chinese importers canceled “four or five cargos” of Ukrainian corn booked for delivery in an effort to support local prices ahead of planting.
  • Export sales for week ending March 4th were bearish and pulled the market lower. Corn sales of 12.8 million bushels were the lowest of the marketing year and fell well below expectations. Soybean and wheat sales were also on the low end of expectations.
  • Export inspections with the exception of wheats were flat to lower and uninspiring. The reported soybean volume was the lowest since Mid-September as volumes continue to move seasonally lower. Wheat exports exceeded all pre-report expectations.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a record high 196.4 million bushels in March. This was 1.2 million bushels below the average trade estimate ahead of the report. The soybean oil stocks volume was on the top end of expectations and the fifth consecutive month of volumes exceeding the average trade estimate.
  • As expected, planting picked up in the western corn belt last week. Six percent of the US corn crop is planted compared to 3% last week and an average pace of 5%. The first soybean planting progress came in at 3% up from an average of 1%. Cotton and rice were 8% and 44% respectively.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating slipped just slightly to 346 down from 348 last week (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 273 last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways commodity trading
  • U.S. Jobs & job openings report updates
  • Crude oil stocks building
  • April WASDE pre-report expectations
  • Planting progress
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn flat at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.73
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.81
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.02 at $11.84
  • May soybean oil down 0.34 cents at 47.90 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.60 at $336.00/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.65
  • July 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.80
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $2.43 at $85.61/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The February JOLTS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) report showed job opening in February totaled 8.8 million matching expectations, while the number of people quitting jobs rose slightly to 3.5 million.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 135 million gallons last week after being up 133 million gallons the week prior. Conversely gasoline stocks declined 179 million gallons and distillate stocks decreased 43 million gallons. Crude Oil prices broke above $90/ barrel last week on middle east tensions but broke lower to start the week on reports of de-escalation.
  • Ethanol production increased to 315 million gallons on the week- up from 310 the week prior and 295 the same week in 2023. Ethanol production continues to run at historically high levels. Gasoline demand was up 6%. Ethanol stocks rose 14 million gallons.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was up for wheats (+3.6%), Corn (+1.9%), soybeans (+3.1%), Soybean Oil (+2.5%), soybean meal (+2.6%), and Cotton (+0.8%), while being down for rough rice (-0.7%).
  • Managed money traders reduced their net shorts in Chicago wheats 2,322 contracts while increasing their net shorts of corn- 7,826 contracts and soybeans 3,476 contracts. Money managers do not seem concerned about being historically short in corn and soybeans.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were rather weak for the week ending March 28th. Corn, soybean, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats were all down week over week. Soybean sales of 7.1 million bushels were below all pre-report estimates.
  • Export inspections were mixed. Corn export inspections of 55.9 million bushels exceed all expectations, wheat inspections of 18.3 million bushels were on the top end of expectations while soybean inspections of 17.8 million bushels were the lowest since early September.
  • Planting progress was slow with several broad storms moving through the Midwest. Corn planting increased 1% to 3%, which is slightly ahead of the 3-year average of 2%. Rice planting was up 9% to 23% while cotton planting was reported at 4% up from 3%.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating was unchanged at 348 (a perfect score is 500). Up from 276 last year. Kansas at 338 was up from 220 last year. Oklahoma at 365 was up from 260 last year and Test at 324 was up from 250 last year.
  • The March Job Reports showed nonfarm payroll in the US at 303,000 up from 270,000 in February and analyst expectations of 200,000.
  • The US unemployment rate also fell to 3.8% down from 3.9% and stayed below 26th month in a row, the longest stretch since the 1960s.

Ohio Crop Weather – April 1, 2024

Cloudy and Cool at Season’s Start

Cloudy and cool conditions prevailed across the State as farmers began early-season field activities, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 1 percent very short, 6 percent short, 69 percent adequate, and 24 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on March 31 was 46.6 degrees, 1.6 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.81 inches of precipitation, 0.05 inches above average. There were 2.1 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending March 31. Farmers began the season with fertilizer and manure applications and tillage. Recent precipitation left some fields saturated, with ponding reported. Oats were 1 percent planted. Winter wheat was 4 percent jointed and winter wheat condition was 67 percent good to excellent. In southern counties, stone fruit and pear trees were in bloom and fruiting plants began to emerge from dormancy. Hay fields were greening, supported by moderate temperatures and adequate precipitation. This is the first weekly crop and weather report of the 2024 season. A series of weekly crop progress and condition reports will be published each Monday at 4:00 p.m. ET throughout the crop season. The reports will cover planting and harvesting activities, crop development, weather data, and timely crop management information provided by farmers, USDA, and Ohio State University experts. For the earliest possible access, look for these reports on the internet shortly after the 4:00 PM release time.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • What’s ahead for corn futures
  • USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings review
  • Corn, soybean acreage
  • Drop in principal acreage
  • Corn usage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $0.01 at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.74
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.16 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $11.82
  • May soybean oil down 0.47 cents at 48.24 cents/lb.
  • May soybean meal down $6.00 at $333.40/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.06 at $5.57
  • July 2024 wheat up $.05 at $5.72
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.65 at $83.18/barrel
  • Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer sentiment climbed to a 2 ½ year high as American’s express increased confidence that inflation will continue to ease and reduce the financial strain on households.
  • Consumer spending in February rebounded after a sluggish start to the year as household spending rose 0.8% in February to market the biggest increase in 13 months. Economists had anticipated 0.5%.
  • US crude oil stocks, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, increased 133 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks increased 55 million gallons while distillate stocks fell 50 million gallons. US gasoline demand was down 1% on the week.
  • Ethanol production increased just slightly to 310 million gallons produced on the week- up from 308 million the week before and 295 million the same week last year. With the higher ethanol production and lower gasoline demand- ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week indicating a solid week of ethanol exports.
  • Grain crushed for ethanol through February now totals 2,714 million bushels- up 166 million bushels over the same period last year.
  • USDA’s planting intentions report indicated US producers will plant just over 90 million acres of corn in 2024- down 1.8 million acres from analyst expectations ahead of the report. Soybean acreage of 86.510 compared to 86.530 million in expectations. Principal crop acres were down 6.3 million acres. Grain stocks all increased year over year but were as expected.
  • Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions increased for Chicago corn (0.9%), soybeans (2.8%), Soybean oil (0.3%), and cotton (0.7%) while falling for wheats (-1.5%), soybean meal (-0.9%) and rough rice (-6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats (16,313 contracts) and Chicago corn (8,742 contracts) while shrinking their net short of soybeans (13,559 contracts). Producers and merchants were big sellers of soybeans while buying back corn and wheats.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were mixed: corn sales of 47.5 million bushels were on the high side of expectations and wheat sales of 12.5 million bushels were above all expectations. Soybean sales of 9.7 million bushels were half of the week prior and below all trade expectations.
  • Export inspections of US grains and oilseed to international markets were supportive on the most recent week. Corn exports of 56.4 million bushels came in above all pre-report expectations and a marketing year high while wheat exports were on the high side of expectations. With strong exports the corn deficit remained unchanged at 22 million bushels.
  • The First Crop Progress report of the year showed US corn planted at 2%- the same as last year. Cotton planted at 3% comparted to 4% last year.
  • The initial winter wheat conditions score of 348 compares to 279 last year and a 3-year average of 313. (500 is a perfect score).

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Soybean market continues to find support
  • Potential acreage shifts
  • Planting discussion
  • Fed to meet, interest rates in balance
  • Reports to watch

U.S. corn acreage could come in higher than expected

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– May 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.36
– December 2024 corn down $.02 at $4.70
– May 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.87
– November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.80
– May soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 48.70 cents/lb
– May soybean meal down $6.20 at $331.90/short ton
– May 2024 wheat down $.04 at $5.42
– July 2024 wheat down $.02 at $5.57
– May WTI Crude Oil up $4.46 at $81.60/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Initial jobless claims last week of 209,000 were down from expectations of 218,000 and 210,000 the week prior.
  • The Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in February- the largest monthly gain since last August. This was above expectations of 0.3% rise in PPI.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up across the board for the second consecutive week. Chicago Wheats (1.7%), corn (2.4%) and beans (2.6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net short of Chicago Wheats 7,992 contracts while also decreasing their large net short of Chicago Corn 40,867 contracts and Chicago soybeans 16,862 contracts. Net gains for corn and soybean oil were much larger than expected by daily trade estimate, with soybeans close, while Chicago wheat more negative than expected.
  • US Crude oil stocks decreased for the first time in seven weeks- falling just slightly by 65 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell much further- down 238 million gallons to extend the tightening to six consecutive weeks. Distillate fuel stocks were up just slightly by 37 million gallons. Gasoline demand was flat on the week after being up 6% week prior.
  • Ethanol production pulled back to 301 million gallons produced on the week- down 10 million gallons. It was also the lowest volume in 2 ½ months. It is expected 101.4 million bushels of corn were used in the process. With flat gasoline consumption and slightly lower ethanol production- ethanol stocks pulled back just slightly.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 186.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, a new monthly record for February and above the most bullish pre-report estimate. Soybean oil use in February of 2,027 million pounds was also a new record for the month.
  • US export sales last week were all within expectations but showed weekly increases for corn and soybean meal with weekly decreases for soybeans, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats. Corn was on the higher end of expectations with soybeans on the lower end.
  • Weekly US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed last week. Everything was within expectations but corn was on the high side of expectations while wheats were on the low side.
  • USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, to 55% good/excellent, TX up 2% to 46% good to excellent; OK ratings feel four points to 61% good to excellent while CO rose 9% to 65% good to excellent.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn, soybean production estimates drop
  • Chinese soybean stock changes
  • Wheat exports
  • Record soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn up $.02 at $4.90
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $5.17
  • November 2023 soybeans up $.22 at $12.86
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.05 at $12.55
  • December soybean oil up 2.97 cents at 55.90 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal up at $390.20/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.05 at $5.77
  • July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.34
  • November WTI Crude Oil up $1.10 at $85.70/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 427 million gallons on the week while gasoline, distillate, and ethanol stocks all declined.
  • Ethanol production declined just slightly week over week- down 2 million gallons to 295. However, US gasoline consumption was up nearly 7% during the first week over October. With the increase in use and the moderate decline in production ethanol stocks declined 15 million gallons.
  • It was a neutral week for US ag export sales. Corn sales were roughly half what they were the week prior but slightly above all expectations while soybeans also cleared rather low expectations. Soft red winter wheat export sales continue to support the wheat complex on global price competitiveness.
  • USDA cut both US corn and soybeans national average yields in October by 0.8 and 0.5 bushels respectively. For both, the decrease in production was either partially or fully offset with declines in demand categories.
  • The most surprising number in Thursday Supply and Demand Report came from the global soybean balance sheet where a drop in Chinese beginning stocks and an increase in expected feed use helped create a bullish global ending stocks picture.
  • Open interest in Chicago corn and soybean futures and options positions increased week over week. Producer and merchants doubled their short position of corn contracts while slightly selling soybean contracts.
  • Managed money traders bought back 46.7 thousand positions of Chicago corn to shrink their net short- this was someway surprising after daily estimates had estimated they would increase their net short.
  • USDA Ag Export Inspections were bullish for soybeans while bearish for corn. At nearly 74 million bushels, soybean exports were the highest since early January.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 165.5 million bushels of soybeans in September- setting a new record for the month of September. Soybean oil stocks fell to its lowest level since December 2014.
  • Harvest production in the US moved along this week- corn was up 11% to 45% and soybean harvest was up 19% to 43%.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crude oil price swings
  • USDA report preview
  • Corn ending stocks
  • U.S. export positioning
  • Reports to watch

 

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • December 2023 corn flat at $4.88
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $5.16
  • November 2023 soybeans down $.13 at $12.64
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $12.50
  • December soybean oil down 3.5 cents at 53.93 cents/lb
  • December soybean meal down flat at $374.60/short ton
  • December 2023 wheat up $.08 at $5.72
  • July 2024 wheat up $.09 at $6.40
  • November WTI Crude Oil down $2.64 at $84.60/barrelWeekly Highlights
  • It was announced last week that the Argentina Government will expected their “soy dollar” program through October 25
  • US Crude oil stocks minus the strategic petroleum reserve fell another 93 million gallons this week along with distillate stocks, while gasoline stocks were up 272 million gallons.
  • Ethanol production was flat at 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
  • It was a solid week for agricultural export sales last week with corn and soybeans at the top end of their respective expectations and highest weekly volumes since April and January, respectively.