Corn

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA WASDE review
  • Tightness in soybean market
  • Soybean crush down
  • Harvest picks up
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday’s close):
• December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71
• November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16
• October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb
• October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton
• December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91
• July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40
• September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel

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Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA
Moderate temperatures and mostly clear skies throughout Ohio provided farmers with favorable conditions to conduct pre-harvest activities, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Continued lack of significant precipitation resulted in an increase in abnormally dry soil moisture levels. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 6 percent very short, 37 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 17 was 62.3 degrees, 3.1 degrees below normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.25 inches of precipitation, 0.59 inches below average. There were 6.1 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 17.
While row crop progress remained behind the five-year average, favorable crop condition ratings exceeded previous year averages. Sixty-seven percent of corn was in or past dent and 22 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 42 percent harvested. Twenty-seven percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 76 and 71 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 92 and 71 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 56 percent complete. Winter wheat was 1 percent planted. Pasture and range condition was rated 63 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Field Observations Thru September 15

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the late R4 (Dough) or the R5 (Dent) growth stage.  A few fields are approaching the final growth stage R6.

R6 – Physiological Maturity

  • Occurs approximately 66‐70 days after silking.
  • R6 is reached  after the milk line disappears and the starch has reached the base of the kernel.
  • Kernels have reached maximum dry weight.
  • Kernel moisture is  about 35% at physiological maturity.
  • Black layer occurs after physiological maturity and  serves as a visual verification that the plant is mature. Black layer typically occurs at 30%  moisture but varies by hybrid and environment.
  • Husks and many of the leaves are no longer green, but the stalk may be green.
  • Only external stress can reduce yield now,  such as plant lodging or insect feeding.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Ear rots.
  • Stalk rots.
  • Anthracnose top dieback.
  • Stalk lodging.
  • Abnormal ear fill which identifies periods of stress.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to get an accurate yield estimate.

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Soybeans are continuing to mature.  Last week I highlighted the R7 growth stage, the last growth stage is R8 full maturity.

R8 – Full Maturity

  • 95% of pods reached mature color
  • Mature pod color does not necessarily indicate that beans are ready to harvest
  • 35% grain moisture in freshly matured pod
  • 15% within another 5 to 10 days
  • Below-optimum plant stands cause more branching, low pod heights & can delay maturity
  • Above-optimum plant stands increase lodging.

Scouting

At this growth stage look for:

  • Green stem syndrome.
  • Lodging
  • Sprouting seeds
  • Pod shattering
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

This is also a good time to check soybean yield potential.

County Rainfall Update

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Last week’s warm days and mostly fair weather supported crop progress but left some counties excessively dry, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office. Topsoil moisture conditions were rated 9 percent very short, 19 percent short, 68 percent adequate, and 4 percent surplus. Statewide, the average temperature for the week ending on September 10 was 72.5 degrees, 4.6 degrees above normal. Weather stations recorded an average of 0.27 inches of precipitation, 0.27 inches below average. There were 5.6 days suitable for fieldwork during the week ending September 10.

Ninety-five percent of corn was in or past dough, 53 percent was in or past dent, and 11 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 27 percent harvested. Eight percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 82 and 75 percent good to excellent, respectively. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 88 and 58 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 38 percent complete. Pasture and range condition was rated 68 percent good to excellent, down from the previous week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Weeks Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn and soybean acreage
  • Corn and soybean production
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– December 2023 corn up $.05 at $4.85
– November soybeans up $.06 at $13.69
– October soybean oil down 2.63 cents at 61.34 cents/lb
– October soybean meal up $5.80 at $406.00/short ton
– December 2023 wheat down $.14 at $5.84
– July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.37
– September WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $85.87/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US crude oil stocks were down again last week continuing a trend over the last month. Globally production cuts by the top exporters are being offset by other global producers and lower global demand.
  • Ethanol production was basically flat on the week- up 2 million gallons. Gasoline demand was up on the week while ethanol stocks were flat suggesting that ethanol exports have been rather sluggish in August.
  • It was the last week of export sales of the 2022/23 marketing year for corn and soybeans with net cancelations on of corn and 5.7 net sales for soybeans. However, new crop 2023/24 sales finally showed some life.
  • Open interest positions of Chicago futures and options were largely up:  Chicago wheats-flat, corn- +1.4%, soybeans- +2.2%, cotton- +10.4%, and rough rice- +14.7%.
  • Managed money traders bought back 168 futures and options positions to slightly decrease their net short position in that commodity, while also selling off 6,565 contracts of corn increasing the net short, and also selling 8,175 contracts of Chicago soybeans decreasing the net long for that commodity.
  • US ag export inspection data was mixed this week- for feed grains it was a relatively strong week with corn, grain, and wheats with all reaching multi-month highs. Soybean inspections were the lowest since early August.
  • Crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Corn was down 1 point to 337, but up 1 point from last year. Soybeans fell 3 points to 337 and are 10 below last year. Cotton conditions fell a point to 275 and are also down 10 points relatively to last year.
  • Five percent of the US corn crop is harvested- compared to 4% on average. Eight percent of the US cotton crop has been harvested. Forty-five percent of the US rice crop has been harvested compared to an average of 35%.

Field Observations Thru September 8

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the R4 (Dough) or the R5 growth stage.

R5 – Dent

  • The second to last stage of corn development.
  • R5 (dent) occurs approximately 31‐33 days after silking.
  • Kernels are dented in at the top with the “milk line” separating the liquid and
    solid (starch) portions.
  • Within R5, kernels are often staged according to the progression of the milk line; i.e. ¼, ½, and ¾.
  • At the beginning of R5, kernels have 60% moisture content.
  • Stresses will reduce kernel weight at this time.

Scouting

I have heard a wide range for projected corn yields this year.  The Yield Component Method is the most widely used procedure for estimating corn yield.  While  you are out checking potential corn yields, also keep an eye out for:

  • Ear rots.
  • Stalk rots.
  • Anthracnose top dieback.
  • Stalk lodging.
  • Abnormal ear fill which identifies periods of stress.
  • Weed escapes (especially palmer & waterhemp).

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Soybeans are continuing to mature.  Last week I highlighted the R6 growth stage  the next stage is R7 the last growth stage prior to maturity.

R7 – Begining Maturity

  • One mature-colored pod anywhere on the main stem.
  • Yellow pods are moving toward maturity.
  • Tan, brown or tawny pods (depending on variety) signal physiological maturity.
  • Seeds at the R7 growth stage are at approximately 60% moisture.

Scouting

  • Foliar diseases – Sudden Death Syndrome, White Mold, and Frogeye Leaf Spot.
  • Insect feeding – Grasshoppers.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

Estimating soybean yields

It is much more difficult to accurately predict soybean yield.  The process to estimate soybean yields can be found here.

County Rainfall Update

Ohio Crop Progress

Source: USDA

Ninety percent of corn was in or past dough, 40 percent of Ohio corn was in or past dent, and 2 percent was mature. Corn for silage was 11 percent harvested. Ninetyfive percent of soybeans were setting pods and 3 percent were dropping leaves. Corn and soybean condition were 80 and 76 percent good to excellent, respectively. Second cuttings of other hay were 94 percent complete. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 75 and 51 percent complete, respectively. Fourth cuttings of alfalfa hay were 29 percent complete.

Estimating corn yields

According to the latest Ohio Crop Weather Report 90% of the Ohio corn crop is in the dough stage, 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.  40% of the crop is in the dent stage 10% below the 5 year average.

This time of year many of us begin to think about our potential corn yield.  The most popular yield estimator is the  THE YIELD COMPONENT METHOD.  This procedure was developed by the Agricultural Engineering Department at the University of Illinois.  The yield component method involves use of a numerical constant for kernel weight which is figured into an equation in order to calculate grain yield. This numerical constant is sometimes referred to as a “fudge‑factor” since it is based on a predetermined average kernel weight. Since weight per kernel will vary depending on hybrid and environment, the yield component method should be used only to estimate relative grain yields, i.e. “ballpark” grain yields. When below normal rainfall occurs during grain fill (resulting in low kernel weights), the yield component method will OVERESTIMATE yields. In a year with good grain fill conditions (resulting in high kernel weights) the method will underestimate grain yields.

In the past, the YIELD COMPONENT METHOD equation used a “fudge factor” of 90 (as the average value for kernel weight, expressed as 90,000 kernels per 56 lb bushel), but kernel size has increased as hybrids have improved over the years.  Assuming no stress during grain fill, a “fudge factor” of 80 to 85 (85,000 kernels per 56 lb bushel) is a more realistic value to use in the yield estimation equation today.

Step 1. Count the number of harvestable ears in a length of row equivalent to 1/1000th acre. For 30‑inch rows, this would be 17 ft. 5 in.

Step 2. On every fifth ear, count the number of kernel rows per ear and determine the average.

Step 3. On each of these ears count the number of kernels per row and determine the average. (Do not count kernels on either the butt or tip of the ear that are less than half the size of normal size kernels.)

Step 4. Yield (bushels per acre) equals (ear #) x (avg. row #) x (avg. kernel #) divided by 85.

Step 5. Repeat the procedure for at least four additional sites across the field. Keep in mind that uniformity of plant development affects the accuracy of  the estimation technique.

The more variable crop development is across a field, the greater the number of samples that should be taken to estimate yield for the field.

Example: You are evaluating a field with 30‑inch rows. You counted 32 ears (per 17′ 5″ = row section). Sampling every fifth ear resulted in an average row number of 16 and an average number of kernels per row of 33. The estimated yield for that site in the field would be (32 x 16 x 33) divided by 85, which equals 199 bu/acre.

Field Observations Thru September 1

They are here!  Palmer Amaranth and Waterhemp are prevalent in MANY Knox County fields.  One female plant can produce 1,000,000 seeds.  If you find Palmer Amaranth or Waterhemp you should do whatever you can to prevent these devastating weeds from going to seed, including removing the entire plant from the field.

Continue to remain vigilant!  

Click here for tips on identifying pigweed, palmer and waterhemp.

Corn

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in either the R3 (Milk) or the R4 (Dough) growth stage.  Some of our early maturing hybrids have reached the R5 dent stage.

Scouting

Disease pressure throughout the county continues to be very low. Continue to scout for:

  • Foliar diseases – Gray Leafspot, Tar Spot, Northern Corn Leaf Blight.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

Soybeans

Growth & Development

Most of the corn that I have seen this week is in the R6 (Full Seed) growth stage.  Some of the early maturity beans are entering the R7 (Beginning Maturity) stage soon.

Scouting

Disease pressure throughout the county continues to be very low.  As you continue to scout your bean fields, look for:

  • Foliar diseases – Sudden Death Syndrome, White Mold, and Frogeye Leaf Spot.
  • Insect feeding – Grasshoppers.
  • Weed escapes (especially Palmer and Waterhemp).

County Rainfall Update

Ohio Crop Progress

 

Seventy-nine percent of corn was in or past dough, and 30 percent of Ohio corn was in or past dent. Ninety percent of soybeans were setting pods. Corn and soybean condition were 79 and 76 percent good to excellent, respectively. Second cuttings of other hay were 88 percent complete. Third cuttings of alfalfa hay and other dry hay were 69 and 44 percent complete, respectively. Pasture and range condition was rated 66 percent good to excellent, up from the previous week.