USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030

Source: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR, Tuscarawas County

Click here for PDF version–easier to view Figures

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the interagency report: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030.  These long-term projections include several assumptions related to the Farm Bill, macroeconomic conditions, farm policy, and trade agreements.  While long-term projections are based on assumptions and many unknowns, they do provide a glimpse of how U.S. farm commodity prices may perform over the next several years.  Anyone interested in reading specific details is encouraged to see the report available here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/100526/oce-2021-1.pdf?v=3513.2.

This article briefly summarizes selected selections of the 102-page report, including U.S. crop prices, milk production, U.S. farm income, and government payments.  Figures from the report are included to accompany the text.

U.S. Crop Prices

Rising global demand for diversified diets and protein will continue to stimulate import demand for grains. Increased demand for these crops is accompanied by rising competition for market share from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and the Black Sea region. The United States also faces challenges related to ongoing tensions with trade partners and a relatively strong U.S. dollar. Although strong trade competition continues, U.S. commodities remain generally competitive in global agricultural markets, with U.S. corn and soybean exports projected at record highs by 2030/31. Nominal prices for wheat, cotton, and rice are expected to rise modestly between 2021/22 and 2030/31.

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Farm Office Live on Monday April 27

OSU Extension is pleased to be offering the third session of “Farm Office Live” session on Monday evening, April 27, 2020 from 8:00 to 9:30 p.m.  Farmers, educators, and ag industry professionals are invited to log-on for the latest updates on the issues impact our farm economy.

The session will begin with the Farm Office Team answering questions asked over the past week.  Topics to be highlighted include:

  • Update on the CARES Paycheck Protection Program
  • Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL)
  • Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) Update
  • Ethanol and biofuel update
  • ARC and PLC Forecasts
  • Other legal and economic issues

Plenty of time has been allotted for questions and answers from attendees. Each office session is limited to 500 people and if you miss the on-line office hours, the session recording can be accessed at farmoffice.osu.edu the following day.  Participants can pre-register or join in on Monday evening at  https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive 

Managing stored grain into summer

Source:  Jason Hartschuh, Elizabeth Hawkins, OSU Extension

If you are storing more grain on farm this spring than usual, you are not alone. Over the last few weeks, we have heard from more producers who are considering holding grain longer into summer months than they normal would. We have also heard a few reports of spoiled grain as producers fill April contracts. Carrying graining into summer has been done for many years successfully but requires much more intensive management than winter grain storage.

Key advice for long term grain storage   

  1. If bins were not cored in early winter core bins now
  2. Verify the moisture content of stored grain is at or below recommended levels
  3. Monitor grain temperature every 3 or 4 weeks throughout storage paying special attention to insect activity and mold
  4. Monitor the roof area for signs of condensation
  5. Cover fans to keep the chimney effect from warming the grain
  6. Provide roof ventilation at two levels above the surface of the grain, one vent should be close to the peak of the bin
  7. Aerate bins on cool mornings every couple weeks as grain at the top of the bin becomes warm

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Ben Brown’s Weekly Market Outlook – 4/24/2020

Here is my market outlook on the likely outcome of large corn supplies in 2020. This is above a market and financial incentive to switch roughly 2 million corn acres to beans in the Eastern Corn-Belt. The full report can be found at [https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/2020/04/24/examining-2020-corn-and-soybean-acreage/](https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/2020/04/24/examining-2020-corn-and-soybean-acreage/)As always a big thank you to Rachel Leggett for her talented video production. Hope to see you around the State of Ohio soon! Go Bucks!

Posted by Ben Brown on Friday, April 24, 2020

Ben Brown’s Weekly Market Outlook

Howdy folks- here is my market update for the week of April 17 on the potential for US soybean crush moving forward. Soybean crush has been the star of the show lately and the March report was eye popping, but it is hard to see soybean crush sustaining that pace. Although, I do think the 20 million bushel increase in the USDA April report is justified. Demand challenges moving forward- likely mean we won't see another crush report like what we saw in March for a while. The written report for the video can be found here- [https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/](https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/)Big thanks to Rachel Leggett and Rob Leeds for the video. Have a great week and hope to see you around the State of Ohio soon!

Posted by Ben Brown on Friday, April 17, 2020

The Effect of COVID-19 on the Farm Economy

It seems as if every night we hear on the nightly news how the COVID-19 pandemic is have devastating effects on the stock market.  But, how often have we heard about the devastating effects the pandemic is having on the farm economy?

The chart below is one I borrowed from Ben Brown’s update in the Farm Office – “Office Hours” which occur every Monday evening from 8 – 9:30 p.m.

January 21st was the date of the first reported case of the Corona Virus in the United States.

Futures Price Decrease:

Please keep our farmers in your thoughts and prayers.  These devastating price reductions will have huge negative impacts on our local farmers for many months to come.