Weekly Commodity Market Update

October 6 2023

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

Market recap
U.S. grain stocks adjustments
U.S. harvest
Corn and soybean storage
Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

December 2023 corn up $.07 at $4.88
December 2024 corn up $.08 at $5.17
November 2023 soybeans down $.20 at $12.77
November 2024 soybeans up $.06 at $12.67
December soybean oil flat at 57.43 cents/lb
December soybean meal down $15.50 at $374.30/short ton
December 2023 wheat down $.25 at $5.64
July 2024 wheat down $.12 at $6.31
November WTI Crude Oil down $2.38 at $87.24/barrel

Weekly Highlights

For the most recent week of data- US crude oil stocks were down (-91 mil. gals) while US gasoline (+43.1 mil. gal.), Distillate (16.7 mil. gal.) and ethanol (16.7 mil. gal.) were all up.
Ethanol production rebounded to 297 million gallons produced on the week using an estimated 99.9 million bushels of corn.
US Ag Export sales were up for most commodities week over week including corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, and all wheats. US wheat sales were bullish coming in above pre-report estimates.
It was the third consecutive week producers and merchants decreased their net short in Chicago futures and options positions by more than 40%- this week 49%. Producers and merchants also reduced the net long in soybeans for the fourth consecutive week.
Managed money traders of Chicago commodities were mixed. They were net buyers of wheats and net sellers of corn and soybeans.
Weekly ag export inspections were down week over week for corn and wheat, but up week over week for soybeans and grain sorghum. All were within pre-report trade expectations.
US Grain stocks on September 1 were all within trade expectations but toward the top end for soybeans and below the average trade guess for corn. Both corn and soybean stocks were down from September 1, 2022.
The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that there were 74.3 million hogs and pigs in the US- up slightly from last September.
Soybeans crushed for crude oil in August was 169 million bushels- down from 183 million in July, 175 million last August and pre-report expectations of 171.6 million bushels.
Corn crushed in August totaled 490 million bushels- below July 2023 but up 1% from August 2022. Corn for fuel alcohol at 443 million bushels, was down 3% from July but up 3% from last August.
US corn harvest is now 23% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. Weekly increases were pretty consistent across the country.
US soybean harvest is now 23% complete up 11% week over week. Conditions improved on the week after declining last week.
40% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly ahead last years pace but behind the average pace.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

September 28 2023September 28, 2023

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

Market recap
U.S. harvest overview
U.S. wheat planting
Ukraine production estimate up
The Fed holds interest rates steady… but
Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

December 2023 corn up $.10 at $4.81
November soybeans down $.19 at $12.97
October soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 58.75 cents/lb
October soybean meal up $1.60 at $392.00/short ton
December 2023 wheat down $.02 at $5.89
July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.43
September WTI Crude Oil up $0.36 at $89.62/barrelWeekly Highlights
US energy stocks dropped across the board this week: crude oil (-90 million gallons), gasoline (35 million gallons), and distillate supplies (-120 million gallons).
Ethanol production dropped 17 million gallons to 288 million gallons on the week- the lowest volume in nearly 5 months.
The Federal Reserve kept short term rates at a range between 5.25-5.5 during their September meeting.
It was a disappointing week for US ag export sales. Corn and wheats were on the low end of trade expectations while soybean sales were below the most bearish estimate. The deficit for export sales is growing fast.
Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up again this week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheats saw increases. Rough rice and soybean oil were down.
Similar to last week, producers and merchants were active buyers of Chicago corn on the week decreasing their net short position of futures and options by nearly 42% after 42% the week before. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by nearly 10,000 positions. For soybeans, producers and merchants sold off 17.6% of their net long position with money managers also shedding 28,000 positions.
Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.094 million head, or 97.8% of last year. The estimate was just above the average trade estimate of 97.7%. August placements were higher while marketings were lower.
US agricultural export inspections were up week over week for soybeans and wheat, but down for corn and grain sorghum. All were within trade expectations.
US corn harvest is now 15% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. While it is unlikely that precipitation is having an impact on crop conditions at this point in the season- yield monitors (or reports from monitors) might. Illinois and Iowa both saw noticeable increases.
US soybean harvest is now 12% complete up 7% week over week. Conditions declining only slightly.
26% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly behind last years pace and the average pace. Plantings are being the most in the eastern corn belt due to slow fall harvest. This is where most of the soft red winter wheat is planted.

Wheat Planting Management Considerations for Fall 2023

September 21 2023September 20, 2023

This year, wheat yields were extremely high across Ohio. In the Ohio Wheat Performance Test (https://ohiocroptest.cfaes.osu.edu/wheattrials/default.asp?year=2023), grain yield averaged between 86 and 126 bu/acre across five Ohio counties. Cool temperatures and adequate subsoil moisture led to a long grain fill period. The long grain fill period coupled with low disease resulted in high-yielding conditions. Mother nature certainly helped us out in 2023; however, fall wheat management is important to set your crop up for success.

Now that we’ve entered mid-September, wheat planting is just around the corner. Here are our key management strategies for this fall:

Plant within the 10-day period starting after the county fly-safe date. It can be tempting to plant wheat before your county’s Hessian fly-safe date (Figure ; however, the best time to plant wheat is the 10-day period starting the day after the fly-safe date. Planting before the fly-safe date increases the risk of insect and disease problems including Hessian fly and aphids carrying Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus. Our wheat planting date field trials have shown no yield benefit of planting prior to the county fly-safe date.
Select high-yielding varieties with high test weight, good straw strength, and adequate disease resistance. Do not jeopardize your investment by planting anything but the best-yielding varieties that also have resistance to the important diseases in your area. Depending on your area of the state, you may need good resistance to powdery mildew, Stagonospora leaf blotch, and/or leaf rust. Avoid varieties with susceptibility to Fusarium head scab. Plant seed that has been properly cleaned to remove shriveled kernels and treated with a fungicide seed treatment to control seed-borne diseases.
Optimum seeding rates are between 1.2 and 1.6 million seeds/acre. For drills with 7.5-inch row spacing, this is about 18 to 24 seeds per foot of row. When wheat is planted on time, the actual seeding rate has little effect on yield, but high seeding rates (above 30 seeds per foot of row) increase lodging and risk of severe powdery mildew development next spring.
Planting depth is critical for tiller development and winter survival. Plant seed 1.5 inches deep and make sure planting depth is uniform across the field. No-till wheat seeded into soybean stubble is ideal, but make sure the soybean residue is uniformly spread over the surface of the ground. Shallow planting is the main cause of low tiller numbers and poor winter survival due to heaving and freezing injuries. Remember, you cannot compensate for a poor planting job by planting more seeds; it just costs more money.
Follow the Tri-State Fertilizer Recommendations for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Alfalfa (https://agcrops.osu.edu/FertilityResources/tri-state_info).
Apply 20 to 30 lb of actual nitrogen per acre at planting to promote fall tiller development. A soil test should be completed to determine phosphorus and potassium needs. Wheat requires more phosphorus than corn or soybean, and soil test levels should be maintained between 30-50 ppm (Mehlich-3 P) for optimum production (Table 1). Do not add phosphorus if soil test levels exceed 50 ppm.

Table 1. Wheat phosphorus recommendations from the Tri-State Fertilizer Recommendations for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Alfalfa.

Soil potassium should be maintained at levels of 100-130 and 120-170 ppm (Mehlich-3 K) on sandy soils (CEC < 5 meq/100 g) and loam/clay soils (CEC > 6 meq/100 g), respectively. If potassium levels are low, apply K₂O fertilizer at planting, depending on soil CEC and yield potential (Table 2).

Table 2. Wheat potassium recommendations from the Tri-State Fertilizer Recommendations for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Alfalfa.

Soil pH should be between 6.3 and 7.0. In Ohio, limed soils usually have adequate calcium and magnesium.

Field Observations Thru July 14

July 14 2023July 14, 2023

Alfalfa

2nd cutting is well underway. Potato leafhoppers are very active. If you haven’t cut yet, continue to monitor, where damage is increasing, cut as soon as weather permits.

Click here for alfalfa insect scouting calendar

Click here for more information on Potato Leafhopper

Corn

Our corn growth varies greatly throughout the county. Some fields are beginning to tassel and some field are at V8.

V12 to V13 – Six weeks after the plant emerges, V12 begins. Moisture or nutrient deficiencies may reduce the potential number of seeds, as well as the ear size, seriously. These two components of yield have key development during the period from V10 to V17. The length of time for the plant to develop through these stages affects harvestable yield.

Early maturity hybrids normally progress through these stages in less time and have smaller ears than later hybrids. Higher plant populations are needed for earlier hybrids to produce grain yield similar to normal-maturity hybrids in the adapted region. Cultivation of plants at this time will destroy some of the plant roots. Brace roots are developing from the fifth node and the first above-ground node.

V14 to V15 – Seven weeks after the plant emerges, V14 begins. The corn plant at V15 is only 12 to 15 days (around one to five V stages) away from R1 (silking). This vegetative stage is the most critical period of seed yield determination. The number of ovules that develop silks, and thus the number of kernels, is being determined. Any nutrient or moisture deficiency or injury (such as hail or insects) may seriously reduce the number of kernels that develop.

The tassel is near full size but not visible from the top of the leaf sheaths. Silks are just beginning to grow from the upper ears. Upper-ear shoot development has surpassed that of lower ear shoots. A new leaf stage can occur every one to two days.

Brace roots from the sixth leaf node are developing, and the permanent roots have continued to elongate and proliferate, eventually reaching a depth of about 5 to 8 feet and spreading several feet in all directions. In some hybrids, brace roots also will develop from the eighth and ninth leaf nodes or even higher. Some corn plants in North Dakota may only develop 16 leaves.

Critical corn growth stages

Table 5. Postemergence Herbicides in Corn – Grasses

Table 6. Postemergence Herbicides in Corn – Broadleaves

Soybeans

Soybeans are starting to look a little bit better, however, there are still a lot of “yellow” beans throughout the county. Two possible reasons are Yellow Flash and Soybean Cyst Nematode. Other possibilities are seedling diseases and water-logged roots, more information on these topics next week.

After planting, the second biggest challenge we face is timely weed control. If you haven’t already made a postemergence application, it might be time to check your fields. Most beans (and weeds) are at stage that might warrant an application. The links below will contain OSU Herbicide rating for postemergence applications.

Soybean Postemergence Weed Control – Grasses

Soybean Postemergence Weed Control – Broadleaves

Soybean Growth & Development – R1: Beginning Bloom

Open flower at any node on the main stem
Flowering begins at 3rd to 6th node (V6 to V10 stage)
Flowering period is 3 to 4 weeks
–Begins ~6 to 8 weeks after emergence
– Peaks R2 to R3; ends ~R5
Vertical root growth rates increase rapidly
– As much as 1.3 to 3.2 in/day

Wheat

Wheat harvest has come to an end and most of the straw is in the barn. From what I hear, wheat yields were pretty good with little to no disease issues.

If you removed the straw, remember to account for the additional fertilizer removal when planning for fertilizer needs next year. Read more here.

Double crop beans have been, or are being planted now. Click here for the Double Crop Soybean Production Guidelines from Dr. Laura Lindsey.

Misc. – Something you don’t see everyday.

I can honestly say that I have never seen one of these before! Click on the picture to see the video. If you know what it is, put your answer in the comment section. Be sure to check back next week for the answer!

… AND THE ANSWER IS – Horsehair Worm

https://entomology.ca.uky.edu/ef613

County Rainfall Update

Corn Water Requirements

Soybean Water Requirements

Nutrient Value of Wheat Straw

July 13 2023July 12, 2023

Wheat harvest is wrapping up and a lot of straw has been bailed this week. If you are bailing straw, remember to account for the additional fertilizer removal when planning for fertilizer needs next year. Each bushel of wheat removes .5 lbs of P2O5 and .25 lbs K2O. So 100 bushel/acre of wheat removes 50 lbs of P2O5 and 25 lbs K2O. The following article summarizes the value of the additional nutrients removed in the straw.

Before removing straw from the field, it is important to understand the nutrient value. Though we have seen some softening of the 2022 fertilizer prices, P and K fertilizer prices remain higher than normal. The nutrient value of wheat straw is influenced by several factors including weather, variety, and cultural practices. Thus, the most accurate values require sending a sample of the straw to an analytical laboratory. However, “book values” can be used to estimate the nutrient value of wheat straw. In previous newsletters, we reported that typically a ton of wheat straw contains approximately 11 pounds of N, 3.7 pounds of P₂O₅, and 29 pounds of K₂O. According to June 2023 fertilizer prices (Source: DTN Fertilizer Price Index: Ohio) and nutrient removal “book values”, one ton of wheat straw would remove N, P, K valuing approximately $25.13 ($16.55 of P₂O₅ & K₂O).

Although N adds value, we do not give it an economic value in the form of fertilizer (as seen in Table 1). Within straw, N is in an organic form and will not immediately be available for plant uptake. The organic-N will need to be converted by microorganisms to ammonium-N (an inorganic form) before it is available for plant uptake – a process called mineralization. The rate of which mineralization occurs depends on the amount of carbon (C) and N in the straw (C:N ratio). The USDA reports a C:N ratio of 80:1 for wheat straw which means there are 80 units of C for every unit of N. Mineralization rapidly occurs when the C:N ratio is ≤ 20:1. At a C:N ratio of 80:1, mineralization will be much slower. (For comparison, corn stover is reported to have a C:N ratio of 57:1.) Rate of mineralization is also influenced by soil moisture and temperature. Since mineralization is a microbial-driven process, mineralization will be slowed (halted) in the winter when temperatures are cold. Thus, no N credit (i.e., value) is given for wheat straw since it is not known when the N will mineralize and become available to the following crop.

In addition to N, removal of straw does lower soil K levels. If straw is removed after heavy rainfall, some of the K may have leached out of the straw, lowering the nutrient value. However, a soil test should be done to accurately estimate nutrient availability for future crops. Besides providing nutrients, straw has value as organic matter, but it is difficult to determine the dollar value for it.