Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.
This Week’s Topics:
- Market recap
- Corn, soybean production estimates drop
- Chinese soybean stock changes
- Wheat exports
- Record soybean crush
- Reports to watch
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
- December 2023 corn up $.02 at $4.90
- December 2024 corn up $.01 at $5.17
- November 2023 soybeans up $.22 at $12.86
- November 2024 soybeans up $.05 at $12.55
- December soybean oil up 2.97 cents at 55.90 cents/lb
- December soybean meal up at $390.20/short ton
- December 2023 wheat up $.05 at $5.77
- July 2024 wheat down $.06 at $6.34
- November WTI Crude Oil up $1.10 at $85.70/barrel
- US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 427 million gallons on the week while gasoline, distillate, and ethanol stocks all declined.
- Ethanol production declined just slightly week over week- down 2 million gallons to 295. However, US gasoline consumption was up nearly 7% during the first week over October. With the increase in use and the moderate decline in production ethanol stocks declined 15 million gallons.
- It was a neutral week for US ag export sales. Corn sales were roughly half what they were the week prior but slightly above all expectations while soybeans also cleared rather low expectations. Soft red winter wheat export sales continue to support the wheat complex on global price competitiveness.
- USDA cut both US corn and soybeans national average yields in October by 0.8 and 0.5 bushels respectively. For both, the decrease in production was either partially or fully offset with declines in demand categories.
- The most surprising number in Thursday Supply and Demand Report came from the global soybean balance sheet where a drop in Chinese beginning stocks and an increase in expected feed use helped create a bullish global ending stocks picture.
- Open interest in Chicago corn and soybean futures and options positions increased week over week. Producer and merchants doubled their short position of corn contracts while slightly selling soybean contracts.
- Managed money traders bought back 46.7 thousand positions of Chicago corn to shrink their net short- this was someway surprising after daily estimates had estimated they would increase their net short.
- USDA Ag Export Inspections were bullish for soybeans while bearish for corn. At nearly 74 million bushels, soybean exports were the highest since early January.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 165.5 million bushels of soybeans in September- setting a new record for the month of September. Soybean oil stocks fell to its lowest level since December 2014.
- Harvest production in the US moved along this week- corn was up 11% to 45% and soybean harvest was up 19% to 43%.