Economics

Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 29, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  In this final episode of Weekly Commodity Market Update, Will and Ben talk about the EPA approving E-15 summer sales, and planting continuing slowly.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • EPA approves E15 for summer season
  • Planting continues slowly
  • Consumer sentiment drops in April
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.78
  • December 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.49
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.04 at $10.35
  • May soybean oil up 1.42 cents at 49.28 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.80 at $290.00/short ton
  • May wheat down $.18 at $5.30
  • July 2025 wheat down $.16 at $5.45
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.53 cents at 66.85 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton up 1.53 cents at 69.97 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.55 at $12.935/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.07 at $13.475/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $0.85 at $62.53/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged 8% in April. The 52.5 reading is the fourth lowest monthly reading since records began in 1952.

For the third consecutive week crude oil stocks were higher (+10.3 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 188 and 98.8 million gallons respectively. Implied gasoline consumption increased sharply on the week and to a calendar year high.

U.S. ethanol production increased to 304 million gallons after matching a calendar year low the week prior. Ethanol stocks decreased 56 million gallons and fell below the same level this time last year.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were as expected but down week over week. Sales in million bushels reported for corn (45.4) and soybeans (10.2) were neutral. There were net cancelations of 5.3 million bushels of wheat across classes. Rice sales of 1.1 million hundredweight were a four-week high.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 0.5% week over week. Producers and merchants were net buyers, shrinking their short positions 44,084 contracts. Money managers were net buyers of 1,743 contracts- decreasing their short position.

Grain and oilseed export inspections were bullish for wheat at 23.8 million bushels while neutral for corn (65.1), soybeans (16.1) and grain sorghum (0.855).

U.S. corn planting was 24% this week- a little behind the 28% average for this time of year and a little slower than trade expectations of 25%. U.S. soybean planting is at 18% ahead the 12% on average and the 17% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 49% good to excellent- up 4 points from the week prior and up 2 percentage points from pre-report trade exceptions.

Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 22, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss how tightening corn ending stocks sets the futures market up for gains if adverse weather lowers yield potential this summer.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn carryout tightens
  • Wet planting conditions
  • March NOPA report
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.08 at $4.82
  • December 2025 corn up $.03 at $4.66
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.35
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.06 at $10.31
  • May soybean oil up 0.51 cents at 47.86 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.80 at $295.80/short ton
  • May wheat down $.07 at $5.48
  • July 2025 wheat down $.09 at $5.61
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.43 cents at 66.32 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 0.07 cents at 68.44 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.02 at $13.485/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.12 at $13.545/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $3.07 at $64.57/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. retail sales in March surged to a 26-month high. Consumer product chains warn that it was a lot of panic buying ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs on imports.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 194.6 million bushels in March- down 3 million from expectations, but up 16.7 million bushels from the disappointing February value.

Again, this week crude oil stocks were higher (+21.6 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 82.2 and 77.7 million gallons respectively. U.S. gasoline demand was flat week over week.

U.S. ethanol production fell to 298 million gallons matching a calendar year low. Ethanol stocks decreased 9.24 million gallons, but remain seasonally high.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were mixed. Corn sales of 61.5 million bushels are 2.5 months high, soybean sales of 20.4 million bushels are a six-week high. Grain sorghum and cotton export sales were average. Wheat and rice sales were somewhat disappointing.

U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1, 2025 was down 1.6% year over year- nearly matching expectations. Placements and marketings in March at +5.1% and +1.1%, respectively were both slightly higher than expected.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 4% week over week. Producers and merchants were net sellers expanding their short position while money mangers were net buyers of 208,757 contracts- decreasing their short position.

U.S. export inspections were bullish for grains and neutral to bullish for oilseeds for the second straight week. Corn and wheat inspections came in above all expectations at 67.0 and 18.7 million bushels, respectively. Soybean inspections were as expected at 20.2 million bushels.

U.S. corn planting was 4% this week- a little behind the 5% average for this time of year and behind the 6% trade expectation. U.S. soybean planting is at 2% matching the 2% on average but also behind the 3% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 47% good to excellent- down 1 point from the week prior but matching trade expectations. The value compares to 55% good to excellent this time last year.

Ohio Farm Resolution Services

Ohio has over 76,000 farms and 13 million acres of farmland.  In such a large and diverse industry, conflicts commonly arise that can lead to disputes, litigation, and appeals.  Ultimately, these conflicts can cause harmful effects that threaten the viability of Ohio agriculture.

The goal of Ohio Farm Resolution Services at The Ohio State University (OFRS) is to cultivate solutions to the conflicts that impact Ohio’s farms and farm families.  Established in October of 2023 with funding from the USDA Farm Service Agency’s Certified Mediation Program, OFRS serves Ohio agriculture with a three-pronged approach to helping resolve farm conflicts that will provide:

  1. Educational resources on Ohio farm conflict issues.
  2. Conflict resolution and consultation services by OSU Extension legal and farm management specialists.
  3. Formal mediation services by trained mediators.

What issues will we cover? The types of issues OFRS will address include:

  • Family communication
  • Farm transition planning
  • Business entities/ practices
  • Energy leases
  • Farm leases
  • Zoning
  • Land Use
  • Labor
  • Neighbor issues
  • Lender/creditor
  • Property disputes
  • Farmland drainage
  • Crops/Agronomics
  • USDA/ODA appeals
  • Estate disputes
  • Other farm related issues

If you have a farm conflict issue we can help you with now, please e-mail program director Robert Moore at moore.301@osu.edu.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben look at the growing competition in South American soybean production and emerging export opportunities.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Black Sea wheat outlook
  • Chinese soybean demand
  • South American soybean production
  • Corn export opportunity in Japan
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn up $.06 at $4.64
  • December 2025 corn flat at $4.51
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.09
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.11 at $10.07
  • May soybean oil up 0.42 cents at 42.01 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.60 at $300.30/short ton
  • May wheat up $.01 at $5.58
  • July 2025 wheat up $.01 at $5.74
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.1 cents at 65.27 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 1.32 cents at 68.66 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.41 at $68.37/barrel

Weekly highlights:

US housing starts at 1.50 million exceeded expectations of 1.38 million and the 1.35 million in January.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged this week at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased economic uncertainty and lowering its growth forecast for the year.

US crude oil stocks were up 73.3 million gallons, while gasoline and distillate stocks were down 22.1 and 118.1 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week over week, but still up 1% from the prior four-week average.

US ethanol production increased to an impressive 325 million gallons- up from 312 million gallons last week and 308 million gallons this time last year. Ethanol stocks were down 33.6 million gallons week over week but still 7% higher than the five-year average.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were mixed- corn sales were again strong at 58.9 million bushels. However, soybean export sales of 13.0 million bushels fell below all expectations Wheat sales were especially disappointing at net cancelations of -9.1 million bushels- 20 million bushels below the most bearish estimate.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 1.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 8,793 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 43,637 contracts to -205,435 contracts.

Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to bullish on the week. Corn and soybean shipments of 57.6 and 30.2 million bushels, respectively were toward the top end of expectations, while wheat shipments of 17.8 million bushels topped all pre-report expectations. There were no grain sorghum inspections.

How Inadequate Estate Planning Led to the Likely Sale of a Family Farm

By: Robert Moore, OSU Extension

As we all know, family farms often hold deep sentimental value. They are passed from generation to generation, with the hope that they will stay in the family. But without careful estate planning, these properties can become the subject of costly legal disputes—and even forced sales. A recent case from the Ohio Court of Appeals, Stephan v. Wacaster, is a textbook example of how inadequate planning can lead to the partition and sale of family land.

 

Don’t let this happen to the farm your family has worked for generations to build.  You can still register for our Planning for the Future of Your Farm Workshop. 

Click here for more details.

 

The Case: A Family Farm Divided

In Stephan v. Wacaster, the appeals court affirmed a decision forcing the partition[1] of a 95-acre farm in Miami County, Ohio. Here’s what happened:

Margaret Stephan, the original owner of the farm, left a will giving life estates to her two children, Connie Wacaster and DeWayne Stephan. Upon each of their deaths, the will directed that their respective shares would pass to their children. For DeWayne’s half, that meant his sons, Rick and Chris Stephan. For Connie’s half, her children, Tami Bodie and Todd Wacaster, would inherit.

Both Margaret and DeWayne passed away. Rick and Chris, now owning DeWayne’s one-half of the farm, filed a lawsuit seeking to partition the farm and divide the proceeds. Connie, still living and holding her life estate in half the property, objected. She argued that because she was still alive and held a life estate over the whole farm, the property couldn’t be partitioned until her death.

However, the court reached a different conclusion. It determined that Margaret’s will created a tenancy in common between Connie and DeWayne, rather than a joint survivorship. As a result, when DeWayne passed away, his sons, Rick and Chris, immediately inherited his half of the farm. This ownership gave them the legal right to seek partition of the entire property—even though Connie was still living there and held a life estate in her half.

If Rick and Chris move forward with partition, Connie will face a difficult choice: either purchase their half of the farm or allow the entire property to be sold—likely at public auction. If the property is sold, Connie may ultimately be forced to leave the farm altogether, losing not only her home but also the family legacy tied to the land.

Why This Happened: Poor Estate Planning

At the heart of this family dispute is a will that lacked clarity and failed to anticipate future complications. Margaret’s will did not create a survivorship interest for Connie and DeWayne, nor did it include restrictions to prevent partition actions. As a result, once DeWayne passed away, his children held a vested, possessory interest in half of the farm, and Ohio law granted them the right to partition the property.  It is probably safe to assume that Margaret would not have wanted the farm sold while Connie was still alive and lived on the property.

How Better Estate Planning Could Have Helped

This case is a cautionary tale for anyone who wants to keep property—especially family farmland—within the family. Here are a few ways Margaret’s estate plan could have avoided this outcome:

  • Survivorship Provisions: Margaret’s will could have created a joint survivorship life estate so that Connie would receive full ownership upon DeWayne’s death. This would have delayed the transfer of DeWayne’s share to his children until after Connie’s passing.
  • Use of a Trust: Rather than distributing life estates and remainders through a will, Margaret could have placed the farm into a trust, which would allow for more control over how the property was managed, used, and distributed over multiple generations.
  • LLC:  Margaret could have placed the farm into an LLC and her heirs could have inherited the LLC.  Provisions in the LLC agreement could prevent partition and only allow the farm to be sold if at least a majority of family members consented.

The Takeaway

Estate planning for real estate—especially family farms—requires careful thought and precise legal drafting. Without it, disputes like the one in Stephan v. Wacaster become commonplace.  Keeping land in the family for future generations can be accomplished by precise drafting in a will, the use of a trust, or setting up a land LLC.

This case is a reminder that even with the best intentions, a poorly drafted estate plan can drive wedges between family members and lead to the loss of important property. Anyone who wants to preserve their family land should work with an experienced estate planning attorney to create a plan that protects the property.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben break down USDA’s record ag trade deficit projection and incoming US ag export tariffs.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA expects record ag trade deficit
  • Tariffs hitting US ag exports
  • Ethanol stocks swell
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.36 at $4.69
  • December 2025 corn down $.15 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.32 at $10.25
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.30 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil down 3.22 cents at 44.12 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.70 at $300.20/short ton
  • May wheat down $.49 at $5.55
  • July 2025 wheat down $.48 at $5.69
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.09 cents at 65.25 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $1.27 at 67.88 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $0.88 at $69.34/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Personal incomes increased 0.9% in January- partially aided by social security updates and state level minimum wage increases, but consumer spending fell 0.2% month over month- the first decline in 22 months, vs expectations of a 0.1% gain.

US energy stocks were up across the board. Crude oil stocks increased 98 million gallons on the week, gasoline stocks increased 17 million gallons, and distillate fuel stocks were up 164 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back just slightly to 318 million gallons produced- vs 319 million gallons, but sharply lower ethanol exports caused ethanol stocks to jump to their largest volume since April 2020.

US ethanol producers used 457.4 million bushels of corn in January according to USDA. The volume was down from the volume in December and a pretty disappointing volume for the month of January.

US soybean crushers crushed 212.6 million bushels of soybeans in January. The value exceeded all pre-report expectations and was slightly bullish to the soybean market.

At the USDA Ag Outlook Forum- USDA estimated corn and soybean acreage at 94.0 and 84.0 million acres, respectively. Yields were estimated at 181.0 and 52.5 bushels per acre, respectively.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were bearish on the week. Corn sales of 31.3 million bushels came in below all pre-report estimates. Wheat sales of 9.9 million bushels were also below all pre-report estimates. Soybeans sales at 15.1 million bushels were within expectations but down week over week.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds were down 11.2% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 6.7% and managed money holders reduced their net long position 26.1% or 57,650 contracts. Money managers are net long the complex 162,917 contracts.

Weekly export inspections for US grains and oilseeds were all as expected. Corn and sorghum shipments of 53.2 and 0.6 million bushels, respectively were up week over week, while soybean inspections of 25.5 million bushels were down week over week and wheat shipments were flat at 14.3 million bushels.

How Many Farms Pay Estate Taxes?

By: Robert Moore, OSU Extension

Estate taxes have been a hot topic lately, especially with the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The TCJA significantly increased the federal estate tax exemption, which stands at $13.99 million per person for 2025. However, if Congress does not intervene, that exemption will drop to approximately $7.2 million in 2026, reverting to pre-TCJA levels.

Estate Taxes and Farms: The Current Reality

Despite the frequent debate about estate taxes, very few farm estates actually owe them. According to the USDA, only about 0.3% of farm estates are subject to federal estate tax under the current exemption. In fact, in 2022, the USDA estimates only 87 farm estates nationwide had to pay any federal estate tax at all.

If the exemption decreases in 2026, more farms will be affected, but the overall percentage will still be relatively small. Here’s what the numbers look like:

  • The percentage of all farms owing estate taxes would rise from 0.3% to 1.0%.
  • Large farms (those with $1 million to $5 million in gross income) would see the biggest jump, with taxable estates increasing from 2.8% to 7.3%.

See the chart below for a full breakdown.

Why Estate Taxes Matter for Farm Families

Even though only a small percentage of farms will be affected, for those that are, estate taxes can pose a significant challenge to passing the farm on to the next generation. Many farms are asset-rich but cash-poor, meaning they have substantial land and equipment value but limited liquid assets. This can create difficulties in paying estate taxes without selling off land or assets critical to farm operations.

How to Prepare for a Potentially Lower Exemption

With the possibility of a lower estate tax exemption in 2026, farm families should take proactive steps now to review and update their estate plans. Strategies to consider include:

  • Gifting Strategies: Transferring assets now while the exemption is higher can help reduce the taxable value of an estate later.
  • Trust Planning: Certain trusts, such as irrevocable life insurance trusts (ILITs) or grantor retained annuity trusts (GRATs), can help manage estate tax liabilities.
  • Business Entity Structuring: Using a business entity, such as an LLC, can provide tax advantages and aid in succession planning.
  • Appraisal and Valuation Planning: Keeping accurate and updated valuations of farmland and business assets helps clarify estate planning needs and may offer tax-efficient structuring opportunities.

The Bottom Line

Farm families need to evaluate their potential estate tax risk now—both under current exemption levels and the possible lower exemption in 2026. If you have concerns, consult with your attorney and other key team members to determine whether updates to your estate plan are needed. Taking action now can help ensure that your farm remains in the family for generations to come.

2024 Ohio Crop Values Summary

The preliminary farm value of Ohio field crops produced in 2024 was $5.55 billion, down 22 percent from 2023. The fall in total value in Ohio was due to lower prices received for all major field crops, except for hay, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office.

Some Ohio highlights from the report follow:

  • Corn for grain value was down 19 percent to $2.41 billion in 2024. The average price was $4.25 per bushel.
  • Soybean value of $2.57 billion decreased 25 percent from 2023. The average price was $10.20 per bushel.
  • All wheat value was down 33 percent to $217 million. The average price was $5.50 per bushel.

Nationally:

  • U.S. corn for grain value decreased 8 percent to $64.7 billion in 2024.
  • Soybean value in the U.S. was down 14 percent to $44.1 billion.
  • U.S. all wheat value was down 11 percent to $10.9 billion.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben dive into the upcoming opening crop balance sheet for the 2025 season.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA balance sheet out on Friday
  • A record oilseed crush falls below expectations
  • The impact of dropping consumer sentiment
  • Cattle on feed’s impact to feed grains
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • March 2025 corn up $.09 at $5.05
  • December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.70
  • March 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.57
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.07 at $10.59
  • March soybean oil up 0.74 cents at 46.81 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $1.10 at $294.80/short ton
  • March wheat up $.10 at $5.90
  • July 2025 wheat down $.08 at $6.17
  • March 2025 cotton down 1.03 cents at 66.08 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $0.24 at 69.15 cents/lb
  • October WTI Crude Oil down $0.49 at $70.22/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer Sentiment declined significantly in February to 64.7 vs 71.7 in January and below expectations of 68.0.

US crude oil stocks increased 195 million gallons on the week- the four straight week. US gasoline stocks were mostly flat on slightly lower weekly demand. Distillate stocks were down 86 million gallons.

US ethanol production increased just slightly to 319 million gallons- up from 218 million last week but matching the volume this time last year. Ethanol ending stocks were up 22 million gallons and are 3% higher than last year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 200.4 million bushels in January- a new record for January, but below expectations. The implied soybean oil demand number was bullish despite a bearish crush report.

Grain and oilseed export sales were neutral on the week with corn sales of 57.2 million bushels, soybean sales of 17.6 million bushels, grain sorghum at 870,00 bushels, and all wheat sales at 19.6 million bushels. Soybean oil sales came in above all expectations after being negative the week prior.

Cattle on Feed in as of February 1 was reported at 11.716 million head- 99.3% of last year. The report was seen as neutral to slightly bullish with both placements and marketings coming in higher than last year.

Open interest in futures and options contracts of grains and oilseeds was up 1.5% week over week with producer and merchants increasing their net short position 3.4% and money managers increasing their net long position a combined 39,366 contracts- all of which were nearly exact opposites of the week prior.

US grain and oilseed export inspections were all as expected today although down week over week for corn and up week over week for soybeans and total wheats.

Analysis of the U.S. agricultural commodity market for the 2024/25 marketing year

By:  Daniel Cohen, undergraduate student, Seungki Lee, assistant professor, and Ani L. Katchova, professor and Farm Income Enhancement Chair in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics at The Ohio State University.

Click here to see full report

 

One of the best indicators of the commodity markets in the U.S. comes from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly reports. Highlights from the January 2025 WASDE report include:

  • An unusually large drop in the U.S. corn yield in the January WASDE surprised the market.
  • Market fundamentals have improved for both corn and soybeans in the past three months.
  • So far, U.S. grain has made promising export progress. The rest of the marketing year will heavily depend on South American crop production and global trade circumstances.
  • We see cautious optimism across the board—solid domestic grain use, relatively good export progress, and lower-than-expected January stock levels. As a result, most grain prices have rebounded over the past few weeks.