Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • What’s ahead for corn futures
  • USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings review
  • Corn, soybean acreage
  • Drop in principal acreage
  • Corn usage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $0.01 at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.74
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.16 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $11.82
  • May soybean oil down 0.47 cents at 48.24 cents/lb.
  • May soybean meal down $6.00 at $333.40/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.06 at $5.57
  • July 2024 wheat up $.05 at $5.72
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.65 at $83.18/barrel
  • Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer sentiment climbed to a 2 ½ year high as American’s express increased confidence that inflation will continue to ease and reduce the financial strain on households.
  • Consumer spending in February rebounded after a sluggish start to the year as household spending rose 0.8% in February to market the biggest increase in 13 months. Economists had anticipated 0.5%.
  • US crude oil stocks, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, increased 133 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks increased 55 million gallons while distillate stocks fell 50 million gallons. US gasoline demand was down 1% on the week.
  • Ethanol production increased just slightly to 310 million gallons produced on the week- up from 308 million the week before and 295 million the same week last year. With the higher ethanol production and lower gasoline demand- ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week indicating a solid week of ethanol exports.
  • Grain crushed for ethanol through February now totals 2,714 million bushels- up 166 million bushels over the same period last year.
  • USDA’s planting intentions report indicated US producers will plant just over 90 million acres of corn in 2024- down 1.8 million acres from analyst expectations ahead of the report. Soybean acreage of 86.510 compared to 86.530 million in expectations. Principal crop acres were down 6.3 million acres. Grain stocks all increased year over year but were as expected.
  • Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions increased for Chicago corn (0.9%), soybeans (2.8%), Soybean oil (0.3%), and cotton (0.7%) while falling for wheats (-1.5%), soybean meal (-0.9%) and rough rice (-6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats (16,313 contracts) and Chicago corn (8,742 contracts) while shrinking their net short of soybeans (13,559 contracts). Producers and merchants were big sellers of soybeans while buying back corn and wheats.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were mixed: corn sales of 47.5 million bushels were on the high side of expectations and wheat sales of 12.5 million bushels were above all expectations. Soybean sales of 9.7 million bushels were half of the week prior and below all trade expectations.
  • Export inspections of US grains and oilseed to international markets were supportive on the most recent week. Corn exports of 56.4 million bushels came in above all pre-report expectations and a marketing year high while wheat exports were on the high side of expectations. With strong exports the corn deficit remained unchanged at 22 million bushels.
  • The First Crop Progress report of the year showed US corn planted at 2%- the same as last year. Cotton planted at 3% comparted to 4% last year.
  • The initial winter wheat conditions score of 348 compares to 279 last year and a 3-year average of 313. (500 is a perfect score).

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