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Corn-to-Soybean Yield Ratios Across Midwestern States

Source: farmdoc daily (15):84, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Summary

While corn and soybean yields have increased over time, corn-to-soybean yield ratios generally have not trended up or down at the national or state levels in the 21st Century. However, there does exist variation in relative yields across states. States in the central Corn Belt region (Illinois, Iowa, Indiana) tend to have higher corn and soybean yields than states in the western Corn Belt and Great Plains (Kansas, North Dakota). In relative terms, as measured by the corn-soybean yield ratio, corn is relatively more productive (higher yield ratios) in the states with lower average corn and soybean yields.

 

Both corn and soybean yields have trended up over time at the national and state levels. Relative yields, as measured by the corn-to-soybean yield ratios, have not trended up or down at the national or state levels over the last 25 years. Differences in yield levels and relative yields exist across states. States with higher corn yields also tend to have higher soybean yields.  States with lower yields tend to have higher corn-to-soybean yield ratios.

U.S. Corn-to-Soybean Yield Ratios

Relative yields of corn and soybeans are often evaluated using a corn-to-soybean yield ratio. We used yields reported by the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) for harvested acres. In 2024, the U.S. yield for corn was 179.3 bushels per acre, while the U.S. yield for soybeans was 50.7 bushels per acre. The 2024 corn-to-soybean yield ratio was 3.54, which equals the 179.3 corn yield divided by the 50.7 soybean yield. This ratio means that one acre yields 3.54 times more bushels of corn than of soybeans.

Since 2000, the U.S. corn-to-soybean ratio has averaged 3.49, with much variation around that average. The highest U.S. ratio of 4.19 occurred in 2003 when soybeans were particularly hard hit by aphids and other pest infestations. The lowest ratio of 3.08 occurred in the 2012 drought year. The extremely dry weather in 2012 had larger adverse impacts on corn, with rain occurring in August helping soybean yields. Statistical tests suggest that the corn-to-soybean ratio has not been trending up or down since 2000. Continue reading Corn-to-Soybean Yield Ratios Across Midwestern States →

Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 29, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  In this final episode of Weekly Commodity Market Update, Will and Ben talk about the EPA approving E-15 summer sales, and planting continuing slowly.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • EPA approves E15 for summer season
  • Planting continues slowly
  • Consumer sentiment drops in April
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.78
  • December 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.49
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.04 at $10.35
  • May soybean oil up 1.42 cents at 49.28 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.80 at $290.00/short ton
  • May wheat down $.18 at $5.30
  • July 2025 wheat down $.16 at $5.45
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.53 cents at 66.85 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton up 1.53 cents at 69.97 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.55 at $12.935/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.07 at $13.475/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $0.85 at $62.53/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged 8% in April. The 52.5 reading is the fourth lowest monthly reading since records began in 1952.

For the third consecutive week crude oil stocks were higher (+10.3 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 188 and 98.8 million gallons respectively. Implied gasoline consumption increased sharply on the week and to a calendar year high.

U.S. ethanol production increased to 304 million gallons after matching a calendar year low the week prior. Ethanol stocks decreased 56 million gallons and fell below the same level this time last year.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were as expected but down week over week. Sales in million bushels reported for corn (45.4) and soybeans (10.2) were neutral. There were net cancelations of 5.3 million bushels of wheat across classes. Rice sales of 1.1 million hundredweight were a four-week high.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 0.5% week over week. Producers and merchants were net buyers, shrinking their short positions 44,084 contracts. Money managers were net buyers of 1,743 contracts- decreasing their short position.

Grain and oilseed export inspections were bullish for wheat at 23.8 million bushels while neutral for corn (65.1), soybeans (16.1) and grain sorghum (0.855).

U.S. corn planting was 24% this week- a little behind the 28% average for this time of year and a little slower than trade expectations of 25%. U.S. soybean planting is at 18% ahead the 12% on average and the 17% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 49% good to excellent- up 4 points from the week prior and up 2 percentage points from pre-report trade exceptions.

Weekly Commodity Market Update for April 22, 2025

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss how tightening corn ending stocks sets the futures market up for gains if adverse weather lowers yield potential this summer.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Corn carryout tightens
  • Wet planting conditions
  • March NOPA report
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.08 at $4.82
  • December 2025 corn up $.03 at $4.66
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.35
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.06 at $10.31
  • May soybean oil up 0.51 cents at 47.86 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.80 at $295.80/short ton
  • May wheat down $.07 at $5.48
  • July 2025 wheat down $.09 at $5.61
  • May 2025 cotton up 0.43 cents at 66.32 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 0.07 cents at 68.44 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice down $0.02 at $13.485/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice down $0.12 at $13.545/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $3.07 at $64.57/barrel

Weekly highlights:

U.S. retail sales in March surged to a 26-month high. Consumer product chains warn that it was a lot of panic buying ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs on imports.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 194.6 million bushels in March- down 3 million from expectations, but up 16.7 million bushels from the disappointing February value.

Again, this week crude oil stocks were higher (+21.6 million gallons) while U.S gasoline and distillate fuels were down 82.2 and 77.7 million gallons respectively. U.S. gasoline demand was flat week over week.

U.S. ethanol production fell to 298 million gallons matching a calendar year low. Ethanol stocks decreased 9.24 million gallons, but remain seasonally high.

Weekly export sales of grains and oilseeds were mixed. Corn sales of 61.5 million bushels are 2.5 months high, soybean sales of 20.4 million bushels are a six-week high. Grain sorghum and cotton export sales were average. Wheat and rice sales were somewhat disappointing.

U.S. cattle on feed as of April 1, 2025 was down 1.6% year over year- nearly matching expectations. Placements and marketings in March at +5.1% and +1.1%, respectively were both slightly higher than expected.

Open interest in futures and options positions of grains and oilseeds fell 4% week over week. Producers and merchants were net sellers expanding their short position while money mangers were net buyers of 208,757 contracts- decreasing their short position.

U.S. export inspections were bullish for grains and neutral to bullish for oilseeds for the second straight week. Corn and wheat inspections came in above all expectations at 67.0 and 18.7 million bushels, respectively. Soybean inspections were as expected at 20.2 million bushels.

U.S. corn planting was 4% this week- a little behind the 5% average for this time of year and behind the 6% trade expectation. U.S. soybean planting is at 2% matching the 2% on average but also behind the 3% expected in pre-report expectations.

U.S. winter wheat conditions were 47% good to excellent- down 1 point from the week prior but matching trade expectations. The value compares to 55% good to excellent this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben review the latest USDA acreage and stocks numbers and take a look at what Trump’s reciprocal tariffs mean for agriculture.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA acreage numbers
  • USDA stocks report
  • Trump administration tariff actions
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  •  May 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.53
  • December 2025 corn down $.09 at $4.42
  • May 2025 soybeans up $.14 at $10.23
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.22 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil up 3.15 cents at 45.16 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $6.80 at $293.50/short ton
  • May wheat down $.30 at $5.28
  • July 2025 wheat down $.32 at $5.42
  • May 2025 cotton up 1.63 cents at 66.90 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton up 1.43 cents at 70.09 cents/lb
  • May 2025 rough rice up $0.095 at $13.515/cwt
  • September 2025 rough rice up $0.10 at $13.755/cwt
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $0.91 at $69.28/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer confidence dropped in March to 92.9, down 7.2 points from 100.1 in February. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Personal incomes were higher than expected in February while spending was slightly less. The PCE index at 0.3% matched expectations and the prior months increase signaling prices remain stubborn.

Energy stocks were largely down week over week. Crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve was down 140.3 million gallons, gasoline down 60.7 million gallons, and distillate fuel down 17.7 million gallons.

US ethanol production decreased to 310 million gallons- down from 325 million gallons the week prior and matching the same volume last year. US ethanol stocks increased 32.6 million gallons.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were largely as expected, but mostly down week over week and recent volumes. Corn sales- 49.9 million bushels, soybean sales-12.4 million bushels, wheat- 3.7 million bushels, rice- 2.2 million hundredweight, and cotton- 89,000 bales.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 0.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 109,703 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 108,996 contracts.

USDA released grain stocks as of March 1- grain stocks were nearly as estimated across the board. Corn and rough rice stocks were down year over year, while soybean and sorghum stocks were up year over year.

USDA reported farmers intend to plant 95.3 million corn acres, 83.5 million soybean acres, 6.09 million soft red winter wheat acres, 9.87 million cotton acres, and 2.9 million rice acres.

Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were relatively strong this week. Corn exports of 63.6 million bushels were bullish coming in above all pre-report expectations. Soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat exports at 29.1, 0.9, and 16.0 million bushels were at the top end of expectations.

That’s “a lotta” Corn

Source: USDA

Nationally, corn planted area for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, up 5 percent or 4.73 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimating States.

Ohio farmers intend to plant less corn and more soybean acreage in 2025 than they did last year, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office.
Ohio corn producers intend to plant 3.25 million acres of corn this spring, down 4 percent from last year. Ohio soybean acreage is forecast at 5.10 million acres for 2025, up 1 percent from last year. Hay harvested area for 2025 is estimated at 830 thousand acres, up 5 percent from 2024. This includes alfalfa, grain, and all other types of hay intended to be harvested for dry hay.

Winter wheat acreage for 2025 harvest is estimated at 570,000 acres, up 10 percent from the previous year.

U.S. soybean planted area for 2025 is estimated at 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating States.

Nationally, all wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 million acres, down 2 percent from 2024. If realized, this represents the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down 2 percent from the previous estimate and down less than 1 percent from last year. Of this total, about 23.6 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.09 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.66 million acres are White Winter. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2025 is estimated at 10.0 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024 estimate. Of this total, about 9.40 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2025 is expected to total 2.02 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben look at the growing competition in South American soybean production and emerging export opportunities.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Black Sea wheat outlook
  • Chinese soybean demand
  • South American soybean production
  • Corn export opportunity in Japan
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn up $.06 at $4.64
  • December 2025 corn flat at $4.51
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.09
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.11 at $10.07
  • May soybean oil up 0.42 cents at 42.01 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $5.60 at $300.30/short ton
  • May wheat up $.01 at $5.58
  • July 2025 wheat up $.01 at $5.74
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.1 cents at 65.27 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 1.32 cents at 68.66 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.41 at $68.37/barrel

Weekly highlights:

US housing starts at 1.50 million exceeded expectations of 1.38 million and the 1.35 million in January.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged this week at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased economic uncertainty and lowering its growth forecast for the year.

US crude oil stocks were up 73.3 million gallons, while gasoline and distillate stocks were down 22.1 and 118.1 million gallons. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week over week, but still up 1% from the prior four-week average.

US ethanol production increased to an impressive 325 million gallons- up from 312 million gallons last week and 308 million gallons this time last year. Ethanol stocks were down 33.6 million gallons week over week but still 7% higher than the five-year average.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were mixed- corn sales were again strong at 58.9 million bushels. However, soybean export sales of 13.0 million bushels fell below all expectations Wheat sales were especially disappointing at net cancelations of -9.1 million bushels- 20 million bushels below the most bearish estimate.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 1.3% week over week. Producer and merchants decreased their net short 8,793 futures and options contracts. Money managers increased their net short 43,637 contracts to -205,435 contracts.

Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to bullish on the week. Corn and soybean shipments of 57.6 and 30.2 million bushels, respectively were toward the top end of expectations, while wheat shipments of 17.8 million bushels topped all pre-report expectations. There were no grain sorghum inspections.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben break down USDA’s record ag trade deficit projection and incoming US ag export tariffs.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA expects record ag trade deficit
  • Tariffs hitting US ag exports
  • Ethanol stocks swell
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.36 at $4.69
  • December 2025 corn down $.15 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.32 at $10.25
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.30 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil down 3.22 cents at 44.12 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.70 at $300.20/short ton
  • May wheat down $.49 at $5.55
  • July 2025 wheat down $.48 at $5.69
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.09 cents at 65.25 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $1.27 at 67.88 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $0.88 at $69.34/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Personal incomes increased 0.9% in January- partially aided by social security updates and state level minimum wage increases, but consumer spending fell 0.2% month over month- the first decline in 22 months, vs expectations of a 0.1% gain.

US energy stocks were up across the board. Crude oil stocks increased 98 million gallons on the week, gasoline stocks increased 17 million gallons, and distillate fuel stocks were up 164 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back just slightly to 318 million gallons produced- vs 319 million gallons, but sharply lower ethanol exports caused ethanol stocks to jump to their largest volume since April 2020.

US ethanol producers used 457.4 million bushels of corn in January according to USDA. The volume was down from the volume in December and a pretty disappointing volume for the month of January.

US soybean crushers crushed 212.6 million bushels of soybeans in January. The value exceeded all pre-report expectations and was slightly bullish to the soybean market.

At the USDA Ag Outlook Forum- USDA estimated corn and soybean acreage at 94.0 and 84.0 million acres, respectively. Yields were estimated at 181.0 and 52.5 bushels per acre, respectively.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were bearish on the week. Corn sales of 31.3 million bushels came in below all pre-report estimates. Wheat sales of 9.9 million bushels were also below all pre-report estimates. Soybeans sales at 15.1 million bushels were within expectations but down week over week.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds were down 11.2% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 6.7% and managed money holders reduced their net long position 26.1% or 57,650 contracts. Money managers are net long the complex 162,917 contracts.

Weekly export inspections for US grains and oilseeds were all as expected. Corn and sorghum shipments of 53.2 and 0.6 million bushels, respectively were up week over week, while soybean inspections of 25.5 million bushels were down week over week and wheat shipments were flat at 14.3 million bushels.

2024 Ohio Crop Values Summary

The preliminary farm value of Ohio field crops produced in 2024 was $5.55 billion, down 22 percent from 2023. The fall in total value in Ohio was due to lower prices received for all major field crops, except for hay, according to Ben Torrance, State Statistician, USDA NASS, Ohio Field Office.

Some Ohio highlights from the report follow:

  • Corn for grain value was down 19 percent to $2.41 billion in 2024. The average price was $4.25 per bushel.
  • Soybean value of $2.57 billion decreased 25 percent from 2023. The average price was $10.20 per bushel.
  • All wheat value was down 33 percent to $217 million. The average price was $5.50 per bushel.

Nationally:

  • U.S. corn for grain value decreased 8 percent to $64.7 billion in 2024.
  • Soybean value in the U.S. was down 14 percent to $44.1 billion.
  • U.S. all wheat value was down 11 percent to $10.9 billion.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben dive into the upcoming opening crop balance sheet for the 2025 season.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA balance sheet out on Friday
  • A record oilseed crush falls below expectations
  • The impact of dropping consumer sentiment
  • Cattle on feed’s impact to feed grains
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • March 2025 corn up $.09 at $5.05
  • December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.70
  • March 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.57
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.07 at $10.59
  • March soybean oil up 0.74 cents at 46.81 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $1.10 at $294.80/short ton
  • March wheat up $.10 at $5.90
  • July 2025 wheat down $.08 at $6.17
  • March 2025 cotton down 1.03 cents at 66.08 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $0.24 at 69.15 cents/lb
  • October WTI Crude Oil down $0.49 at $70.22/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer Sentiment declined significantly in February to 64.7 vs 71.7 in January and below expectations of 68.0.

US crude oil stocks increased 195 million gallons on the week- the four straight week. US gasoline stocks were mostly flat on slightly lower weekly demand. Distillate stocks were down 86 million gallons.

US ethanol production increased just slightly to 319 million gallons- up from 218 million last week but matching the volume this time last year. Ethanol ending stocks were up 22 million gallons and are 3% higher than last year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 200.4 million bushels in January- a new record for January, but below expectations. The implied soybean oil demand number was bullish despite a bearish crush report.

Grain and oilseed export sales were neutral on the week with corn sales of 57.2 million bushels, soybean sales of 17.6 million bushels, grain sorghum at 870,00 bushels, and all wheat sales at 19.6 million bushels. Soybean oil sales came in above all expectations after being negative the week prior.

Cattle on Feed in as of February 1 was reported at 11.716 million head- 99.3% of last year. The report was seen as neutral to slightly bullish with both placements and marketings coming in higher than last year.

Open interest in futures and options contracts of grains and oilseeds was up 1.5% week over week with producer and merchants increasing their net short position 3.4% and money managers increasing their net long position a combined 39,366 contracts- all of which were nearly exact opposites of the week prior.

US grain and oilseed export inspections were all as expected today although down week over week for corn and up week over week for soybeans and total wheats.