Perspectives on 2019 Corn and Soybean Acres: Impact of Prevent Plant

Source: farmdoc daily(9):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 15, 2019.

The Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released county acreages for crops and prevent plantings based on acreage reports filed by farmers.  Even though prevent plant totaled 19 million acres in the United States, planted corn acres in 2019 are only slightly lower than 2018 values.  With notable exceptions, corn acres decreased in counties that had large areas of prevent planting and increased in acres with little prevent planting.  Soybean acres fell over the vast majority of counties in the United States.

FSA Acreage Data

FSA released their first set of 2019 county-level acreage data on August 1 (see Crop Acreage Data of FSA).  This data indicated that there were 85.9 million acres of corn planted in the United States, down by 1% from the 2018 plantings of 86.4 million acres (see Table 1)

The 2019 planting number (85.9 million acres) is expected to increase as FSA continues to update values monthly until January 2020.  From 2011 to 2018, corn acreage in the final January report averaged 1.8% higher than the initial August report.  However, in recent years, the increase has been much lower.  From 2016 to 2018, the January value was .7% higher than the initial August value.  A 1.3% increase – the average from 2011 to 2018 – would increase 2019 planted corn acres to 87.4 million acres.  A .7% increase – the average from 2016 to 2018 – would increase planted acres to 86.4 million acres, roughly the same as the planted acreage for 2018. Continue reading

No Pigweed Left Behind – Late-Season Scouting for Palmer Amaranth and Waterhemp

Source: Dr. Mark Loux (edited)

Remain vigilant!  We have Palmer and Waterhemp in Knox County!! Now is an excellent time to scout for these weeds, especially in bean fields. If you would like help with identification call John at 740-397-0401.

If you don’t already have to deal with waterhemp or Palmer amaranth, you don’t want it.  Ask anyone who does.  Neither one of these weeds is easy to manage, and both can cause substantial increases in the cost of herbicide programs, which have to be constantly changed to account for the multiple resistance that will develop over time (not “can”, “will”).  The trend across the country is for Palmer and waterhemp to develop resistance to any new herbicide sites of action that are used in POST treatments within about three cycles of use.  Preventing new infestations of these weeds should be of high priority for Ohio growers.  When not adequately controlled, Palmer amaranth can take over a field faster than any other annual weed we deal with, and waterhemp is a close second.  Taking the time to find and remove any Palmer and waterhemp plants from fields in late-season before they produce seed will go a long way toward maintaining the profitability of Ohio farm operations.  There is information on Palmer amaranth and waterhemp identification on most university websites, including ours –  u.osu.edu/osuweeds/ (go to “weeds” and then “Palmer amaranth”).  An excellent brief video on identification can be found there, along with an ID fact sheet.  The dead giveaway for Palmer amaranth as we move into late summer is the long seedhead, and those on female seed-bearing plants are extremely rough to the touch.  We recommend the following as we progress from now through crop harvest: Continue reading

Are Crops Catching Up?

Source: Peter Thomison, Laura Lindsey, OSU Extnesion

Corn –  Crop development varies tremendously across Ohio because of planting dates that range from late April to early July. According to field agronomists in some areas of the state, it looks like late-planted crops are “ rushing through development” …Unlike soybean, corn development is directly related to temperature, i.e. heat unit accumulation. Above average July temperatures (especially nighttime temperatures) have promoted rapid corn growth and development. After corn reaches the V10 stage (and most of our June plantings are near or beyond this stage), leaf collar emergence occurs at approximately one leaf every 50 GDDs.  See Corn Growth & Development posts on this blog for more detailed information on various corn growth stages.

Late planted corn fields (especially those that have adequate soil moisture and good soil fertility and weed control) may appear to be “catching up” with neighboring fields planted earlier. The rapid growth of late planted corn is associated with greater vegetative growth and faster canopy closure, which will help optimize yields. However, it does not mean that the rate of development of later plantings is greater than earlier plantings.  Corn growth and development have distinct meanings (Abendroth et al., 2011). Growth refers to the increase in size of an individual plant (or plant component) whereas development refers to a plant’s progression from earlier to later stages of maturity based on specific criteria (e.g., numbers of leaf collars).  So, while late planted corn may appear to be “catching up in terms” in terms of vegetative growth, i.e. plant height (probably because of longer internodes), it’s not caught up from the standpoint of development (leaf collar stages).

Corn plants can “adjust” their development in response to a shortened growing season. As was noted in a recent C.O.R.N. newsletter article (https://agcrops.osu.edu/newsletter/corn-newsletter/2019-12/will-planting…), a hybrid planted after late May will mature at a faster thermal rate (i.e. require fewer heat units) than the same hybrid planted in late April or early May. One of the consequences of delayed planting is that thermal time (GDD accumulation) from the dent stage (R5) to “black layer” or physiological maturity (R6) is shortened, “though this may simply reflect a premature maturation of the grain caused by the cumulative effects of shorter daylengths and cooler days in early fall or by outright death of the plants by a killing fall freeze” (Nielsen, 2018). Moreover, instead of a grain moisture content of about 30% at black layer, typical for normal planting dates, grain moisture at black layer for late plantings may be as high as 40%, which may require longer field drying and harvest delays.

Soybeans – Continue reading

Horseweed (marestail) control options in fallow prevent plant fields

Source: Christy Sprague, Michigan State University

The challenging conditions this spring have left many fields unplanted. Glyphosate- and multiple-resistant horseweed (marestail) dominates a majority of these fields. Horseweed and other weeds in these unplanted fields need to be controlled prior to setting seed to prevent future weed problems. To help determine some of the more effective options for horseweed control, we sprayed several treatments two weeks ago on 2 feet tall horseweed. Common lambsquarters, common ragweed and prickly lettuce were also present in this field. Below is a compilation of pictures of these treatments and a summary of the results.

Horseweed control results

Roundup PowerMax (glyphosate) alone was ineffective at controlling a majority of the horseweed plants in this field (Figure 1A), indicating this population is highly resistant to glyphosate. Glyphosate-resistant horseweed is extremely common in many Michigan fields and glyphosate alone should not be used. The addition of 2,4-D ester at 1 pint per acre (pt/A) or 1 quart per acre (qt/A), Enlist One at 1 pt/A or Clarity (dicamba) at 1 pt/A to Roundup PowerMax improved horseweed control. However, controlling horseweed with these treatments only ranged from 60–70% 14 days after treatment (Figure 1B). These treatments will not likely result in complete control of horseweed.

The addition of 2,4-D or dicamba also improved common lambsquarters and common ragweed control over Roundup PowerMax alone. While these may be some of the more inexpensive treatments, they were not the most effective and caution should be taken if 2,4-D ester or any of the dicamba formulations are used. Off-target movement by drift or volatility, especially under high temperature conditions and when sensitive crops are in the area, can occur these herbicides.

Horseweed control 2
Figure 2. Glyphosate-resistant horseweed control with (A) Liberty (glufosinate) at 32 fl oz/A plus AMS and (B) Sharpen at 1 fl oz/A plus Roundup PowerMax at 32 fl oz/A plus MSO plus AMS, 14 days after treatment. Photo by Christy Sprague, MSU.

The most effective treatments to control glyphosate-resistant horseweed were Liberty (glufosinate) at 32 fluid ounces per acre (fl oz/A) plus AMS (Figure 2A), or Sharpen at 1 fl oz/A or 2 fl oz/A plus Roundup PowerMax at 32 fl oz/A plus MSO plus AMS (Figure 2B). These treatments resulted in greater than 95% control of horseweed, common lambsquarters, common ragweed and prickly lettuce. A higher rate of Liberty (glufosinate) at 43 fl oz/A can also be used.

Initial control of glyphosate-resistant horseweed with Gramoxone 3L (new formulation) at 2.67 pt/A plus surfactant was 80%. However, by 14 days after treatment, horseweed started to regrow (Figure 3). Controlling common lambsquarters, common ragweed and prickly lettuce ranged from 70–75%.

Horseweed control 3
Figure 3. Glyphosate-resistant horseweed control with Gramoxone plus surfactant, 14 days after treatment. Photo by Christy Sprague, MSU.

Two additional treatments we examined included disking and mowing. Mowing reduced overall weed biomass, however it also removed the primary growing point and as horseweed started to regrow, additional shoots were produced. If mowing, multiple passes throughout the season will likely be required. A onetime mowing would likely be more beneficial later in the season prior to flowering and seed set. Tillage or disking did provide good horseweed control, however it will likely take multiple passes to keep the fields clean throughout the season.

Additional considerations

All these treatments were applied under good growing conditions (plenty of moisture and heat) and resulted in good herbicide activity. As weeds continue to grow and begin to flower, the effectiveness of these treatments will likely be reduced. Additionally, depending on the weed species, there could possibly be new emergence later in the season.

Crop rotation restrictions also need to be considered when choosing one of these herbicide treatments for horseweed and other weed control. Sharpen, 2,4-D and dicamba all have residual activity and could cause injury to certain cover crops and winter wheat if rotation restrictions are not followed. Winter wheat should not be planted earlier than one month after applying dicamba or 2,4-D (Enlist One). Sharpen at 1 or 2 fl oz/A can be applied any time before planting winter wheat. There is a 70-day rotation restriction between Liberty applications and planting winter wheat. Consult individual herbicide labels.

Soybean Prevent Planting Decisions in Middle June, Cover Crops, and MFP Payments

Source: farmdoc daily (9):114

Click here to watch Dr. Schnitkey’s video

Farmers across the Midwest can now take prevent planting payments on soybeans, as final planting dates for crop insurance purposes have arrived. Our comparisons suggest that planting soybeans do not have higher returns than taking a prevent planting payment given a high coverage level on crop insurance. However, the risk for lower returns from planting as compared to taking the prevent planting payment is limited as crop insurance provides a floor on revenue.  These risks become greater the later soybeans are planted in the late planting period. The economic advisability of planting soybeans depends on receiving Market Facilitation Payments and no additional Federal aid for prevent planting acres.  Our current projections indicate that returns from either prevent planting or planting soybeans will not cover costs and working capital will be eroded. At the end of this article, links to YouTube videos provide the latest information on cover crops and the Market Facilitation Program as well as a general background on preventing planting.

Yield Declines and Soybean Prevent Plant Decisions in 2019

Final planting dates for soybeans have passed in all the Corn Belt (see farmdoc dailyMay 7, 2019). For Illinois, the final planting date is June 15 for northern Illinois counties and June 20 for central and southern Illinois counties. After reaching the final planting date, farmers can take soybean preventing plant payments on farmland that was intended to be planted to soybeans if they had purchased a COMBO crop insurance plan (Revenue Protection (RP), RP with harvest price exclusion, and Yield Protection). Farmers can continue to plant soybeans, however, the crop insurance guarantee goes down 1 percent per day for each day after the final planting date during the late period. In Midwest states, the late planting period lasts 25 days after the final planting date.  After the late planting period, soybeans can still be planted, but the guarantee is 60% of the original revenue guarantee.

A key to evaluating the plant versus prevent plant decision is assessing yield losses from late planting. A comparison of double-crop soybean yields to full-season soybean yields in southern Illinois provides some indications of yield declines with late planting. Yield data were obtained from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM). From 2012 to 2019, double-crop soybean yields averaged 38 bushels per acre, 75% of the average full-season yield of 51 bushels per acre (see Table 1).

Read More

Mid to Late June Prevented Planting Decisions

Source:Ben Brown, Sarah Noggle, Barry Ward, OSU Extension

Consistent rains across Ohio and the Corn Belt continue to delay planting progress as the June 17 USDA Planting Progress report showed that 68% of intended corn acres and 50% of intended soybean acres have been planted in Ohio. Nationwide, roughly 27 million acres of corn and soybeans will either be planted or filed under prevented planting insurance. Across Ohio, the Final Plant Date (FPD) for soybeans is June 20. Soybeans can be planted after the FPD, but a one percent reduction in the insurance guarantee occurs. This brief article outlines economic considerations for soybean prevented planting under three scenarios: planting soybeans on corn acres, planting soybeans late, and taking prevent plant soybeans. There are three sections to this article: a brief market update on corn and soybeans, a policy update on Market Facilitation Payments, and then finally the scenarios listed above. This article contains the best information available as of release, but conditions may change. Farmers should check with their crop insurance agents when making prevented planting decisions. OSU Extension is not an authorizing body of federal crop insurance policies.

Continue reading

How to store treated seed

Source: Anne Dorrance,  OSU Extension

Let me say upfront that much of the information in this piece is based on a study published (Crop Science 53:1086-1095 in 2013) by Dr. Susan Goggi’s lab and others at Iowa State University, Dept. of Agronomy & Seed Science Center. As a scientist, we store both untreated and treated seed over years, but it is healthy and it is in cool and always dry conditions.  But this year we have several issues.  The seed raised in 2018, due to the rains through our long drawn out harvest, left a lot to be desired.  Last week, we had one day to plant and now we are making decisions on what to do with the seed we purchased that is treated.  Treated seed cannot enter the market and must be disposed of through planting, incineration, or burial based on the label. All of these are costly.

In a study at Iowa State, they compared 24 different seed lots which were treated with a fungicide, fungicide plus insecticide and not treated under 3 conditions: 1) a warehouse; 2) a climate controlled cold storage (50 F, ~60% RH); or 3) warm storage (77 F, ~31 % RH). The seed itself was high germination (95 to 98% germination), dry (<8%), and there was a very low percentage of seedborne pathogens.

Continue reading

Governor DeWine Requests USDA Disaster Designation for Ohio Farmers Impacted by Heavy Rainfall

(COLUMBUS, Ohio)—Ohio Governor Mike DeWine today sent a letter to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Sonny Perdue requesting a USDA Secretarial disaster designation for Ohio amid heavy rainfall impacting Ohio farmers.

In his letter, Governor DeWine notes that record rainfall through the spring planting season has been devastating to Ohio farmers, with flooding and saturated fields preventing them from planting crops. Only 50 percent of Ohio’s corn crop and 32 percent of Ohio’s soybean crop have been planted as of June 10, 2019.

“The harsh reality for Ohio farmers is that many acres will remain unplanted,” Governor DeWine said. “Our dairy and livestock sectors also face serious forage and feed shortages. We recognize the tremendous challenges facing our agricultural community, and we are working to identify any and all sources of possible relief.”

The letter is a formal request to the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a USDA disaster declaration for Ohio so that assistance can be made available to Ohio farmers.

“I visited with several farmers this week and saw firsthand the impact of this devastating rainfall. Fields are visibly filled with water and weeds instead of crops,” said Ohio Department of Agriculture Director Dorothy Pelanda.

Excessive rainfall presented challenges as early as last fall. Because of poor field conditions, some 2018 crops are still in the field and yet to be harvested. Currently, producers are dealing with erosion of their cropland, delayed fieldwork and planting, manure application challenges, and concerns among livestock producers that forages will be in short supply.

Farmdoc Webinar on Prevent Plant/Late Planting Decisions

A webinar on prevent planting was conducted on June 12, 2019. Items include:

1. Todd Hubbs provided market outlook: Bullish corn, bearish soybean
2. Jonathan Coppess provided a policy outlook: Still uncertainty on Market Facilitation Program and Disaster Assistence Programs
3. Gary Schnitkey provided farmer decision making: Corn planting is coming to the end, Don’t plant soybeans on corn prevent plant acres, little downside and upside on planting on planting soybeans on intended soybean acres for the next week.

The webinar video is available on our YouTube Channel now (Click Here)

Two more webinars will be conducted on the next two Wednesdays (June 19, June 26) at 8:00 am (Central Time).  Click here to register.

 

Ohio Corn, Soybean and Wheat Enterprise Budgets – Projected Returns for 2019

Source: Barry Ward, Leader, Production Business Management & Director, OSU Income Tax School

Production costs for Ohio field crops are forecast to be largely unchanged from last year with slightly higher fertilizer and interest expenses that may increase total costs for some growers. Variable costs for corn in Ohio for 2019 are projected to range from $356 to $451 per acre depending on land productivity. Variable costs for 2019 Ohio soybeans are projected to range from $210 to $230 per acre. Wheat variable expenses for 2019 are projected to range from $178 to $219 per acre.

Returns will likely be low to negative for many producers depending on price movement throughout the rest of the year. Grain prices used as assumptions in the 2019 crop enterprise budgets are $3.60/bushel for corn, $8.20/bushel for soybeans and $4.25/bushel for wheat. Projected returns above variable costs (contribution margin) range from $150 to $308 per acre for corn and $144 to $300 per acre for soybeans. Projected returns above variable costs for wheat range from $102 to $202 per acre (assuming $4.25 per bushel summer cash price).

Return to Land is a measure calculated to assist in land rental and purchase decision making. The measure is calculated by starting with total receipts or revenue from the crop and subtracting all expenses except the land expense. Returns to Land for Ohio corn (Total receipts minus total costs except land cost) are projected to range from $23 to $182 per acre in 2018 depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for Ohio soybeans are expected to range from $84 to $254 per acre depending on land production capabilities. Returns to land for wheat (not including straw or double-crop returns) are projected to range from negative $2 per acre to a positive $143 per acre.

Total costs projected for trend line corn production in Ohio are estimated to be $753 per acre. This includes all variable costs as well as fixed costs (or overhead if you prefer) including machinery, labor, management and land costs. Fixed machinery costs of $66 per acre include depreciation, interest, insurance and housing. A land charge of $187 per acre is based on data from the Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey Summary. Labor and management costs combined are calculated at $69 per acre. Returns Above Total Costs for trend line corn production are negative at -$120 per acre.

Total costs projected for trend line soybean production in Ohio are estimated to be $518 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs – $52 per acre, land charge: $187 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $45 per acre.) Returns Above Total Costs for trend line soybean production are also projected to be negative at -$76 per acre.

Total costs projected for trend line wheat production in Ohio are estimated to be $488 per acre. (Fixed machinery costs: $52 per acre, land charge: $187 per acre, labor and management costs combined: $39 per acre.) Returns Above Total Costs for trend line wheat production are also negative at -$137 per acre.

These projections are based on OSU Extension Ohio Crop Enterprise Budgets. Newly updated Enterprise Budgets for 2019 have been completed and posted to the OSU Extension farmoffice website: https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management-tools/farm-budgets