Budgeting

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben break down USDA’s record ag trade deficit projection and incoming US ag export tariffs.

Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA expects record ag trade deficit
  • Tariffs hitting US ag exports
  • Ethanol stocks swell
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • May 2025 corn down $.36 at $4.69
  • December 2025 corn down $.15 at $4.55
  • May 2025 soybeans down $.32 at $10.25
  • November 2025 soybeans down $.30 at $10.29
  • May soybean oil down 3.22 cents at 44.12 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal down $3.70 at $300.20/short ton
  • May wheat down $.49 at $5.55
  • July 2025 wheat down $.48 at $5.69
  • May 2025 cotton down 2.09 cents at 65.25 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $1.27 at 67.88 cents/lb
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $0.88 at $69.34/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Personal incomes increased 0.9% in January- partially aided by social security updates and state level minimum wage increases, but consumer spending fell 0.2% month over month- the first decline in 22 months, vs expectations of a 0.1% gain.

US energy stocks were up across the board. Crude oil stocks increased 98 million gallons on the week, gasoline stocks increased 17 million gallons, and distillate fuel stocks were up 164 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back just slightly to 318 million gallons produced- vs 319 million gallons, but sharply lower ethanol exports caused ethanol stocks to jump to their largest volume since April 2020.

US ethanol producers used 457.4 million bushels of corn in January according to USDA. The volume was down from the volume in December and a pretty disappointing volume for the month of January.

US soybean crushers crushed 212.6 million bushels of soybeans in January. The value exceeded all pre-report expectations and was slightly bullish to the soybean market.

At the USDA Ag Outlook Forum- USDA estimated corn and soybean acreage at 94.0 and 84.0 million acres, respectively. Yields were estimated at 181.0 and 52.5 bushels per acre, respectively.

Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were bearish on the week. Corn sales of 31.3 million bushels came in below all pre-report estimates. Wheat sales of 9.9 million bushels were also below all pre-report estimates. Soybeans sales at 15.1 million bushels were within expectations but down week over week.

Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds were down 11.2% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 6.7% and managed money holders reduced their net long position 26.1% or 57,650 contracts. Money managers are net long the complex 162,917 contracts.

Weekly export inspections for US grains and oilseeds were all as expected. Corn and sorghum shipments of 53.2 and 0.6 million bushels, respectively were up week over week, while soybean inspections of 25.5 million bushels were down week over week and wheat shipments were flat at 14.3 million bushels.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown. This week Will and Ben dive into the upcoming opening crop balance sheet for the 2025 season.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • USDA balance sheet out on Friday
  • A record oilseed crush falls below expectations
  • The impact of dropping consumer sentiment
  • Cattle on feed’s impact to feed grains
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Friday’s close):

  • March 2025 corn up $.09 at $5.05
  • December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.70
  • March 2025 soybeans up $.21 at $10.57
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.07 at $10.59
  • March soybean oil up 0.74 cents at 46.81 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $1.10 at $294.80/short ton
  • March wheat up $.10 at $5.90
  • July 2025 wheat down $.08 at $6.17
  • March 2025 cotton down 1.03 cents at 66.08 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down $0.24 at 69.15 cents/lb
  • October WTI Crude Oil down $0.49 at $70.22/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Consumer Sentiment declined significantly in February to 64.7 vs 71.7 in January and below expectations of 68.0.

US crude oil stocks increased 195 million gallons on the week- the four straight week. US gasoline stocks were mostly flat on slightly lower weekly demand. Distillate stocks were down 86 million gallons.

US ethanol production increased just slightly to 319 million gallons- up from 218 million last week but matching the volume this time last year. Ethanol ending stocks were up 22 million gallons and are 3% higher than last year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 200.4 million bushels in January- a new record for January, but below expectations. The implied soybean oil demand number was bullish despite a bearish crush report.

Grain and oilseed export sales were neutral on the week with corn sales of 57.2 million bushels, soybean sales of 17.6 million bushels, grain sorghum at 870,00 bushels, and all wheat sales at 19.6 million bushels. Soybean oil sales came in above all expectations after being negative the week prior.

Cattle on Feed in as of February 1 was reported at 11.716 million head- 99.3% of last year. The report was seen as neutral to slightly bullish with both placements and marketings coming in higher than last year.

Open interest in futures and options contracts of grains and oilseeds was up 1.5% week over week with producer and merchants increasing their net short position 3.4% and money managers increasing their net long position a combined 39,366 contracts- all of which were nearly exact opposites of the week prior.

US grain and oilseed export inspections were all as expected today although down week over week for corn and up week over week for soybeans and total wheats.

Developing your 2025 corn budget

An enterprise budget is a listing of all income and expenses associated with a specific enterprise. What you produce determines the profitability of your business. Enterprises are the basic building blocks for a farm plan. By analyzing revenues and expenses associated with individual enterprises you can determine which enterprises might be expanded and those that should be cut back or eliminated.

This post will focus on developing your 2025 Corn Budget.  The following are key components for this budget.

1. Revenue Assumptions

  • Corn yield (bushels per acre): Estimated based on your field’s productivity or average local yields.
  • Price per bushel: You can base this on current market trends or contract pricing.
  • Revenue calculation: Yield per acre x Price per bushel.

2. Variable Costs

These are costs that vary depending on the acreage and input levels.

  • Seed costs: The cost of corn seed per acre, including any seed treatment.
  • Fertilizer: Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium (NPK) and other micronutrient fertilizers required for soil health.
  • Herbicides and pesticides: Costs for controlling weeds, insects, and diseases.
  • Fuel: Fuel for planting, cultivating, irrigating, spraying, and harvesting.
  • Labor: Wages for employees working in the field, including seasonal workers.
  • Crop insurance: Premiums for insurance covering potential yield losses or damage from weather events.
  • Other inputs: Other specific inputs required to produce your crop.

3. Fixed Costs

These are costs that do not fluctuate with the level of production.

  • Equipment depreciation: The annual depreciation of tractors, planters, sprayers, harvesters, etc.
  • Land rent/lease: If you do not own the land, this would be a fixed cost.
  • Interest on land and equipment loans: If applicable, include the interest you pay on any loans.
  • Building and storage maintenance: Costs for maintaining barns, grain bins, or other structures.
  • Property taxes: Taxes associated with your land and equipment.

4. Overhead Costs

These include administrative and management costs that can be allocated to each acre.

  • Management and administration: Salaries or wages for management or administrative roles not included in variable costs.
  • Insurance (property, liability): Farm insurance policies.
  • Utilities: Electricity, water, gas, propane, and other utilities for farm operation.

5. Other Costs

  • Transporting: Cost of hauling harvested corn to your bins or elevators.
  • Storage costs: If you’re storing the corn for later sale, include costs for drying and storage.

6. Profit Margin

After calculating your revenue and all associated costs, determine the profit margin per acre. This is the difference between your total revenue and total costs.

The following link will take you to the 2025 OSU Corn Enterprise Budget developed by OSU Extension’s Barry Ward.  This can serve as a guide to help you consider all costs in your operation.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben look at Brazil’s progress in the sustainable aviation fuel sector.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Cotton market in peril
  • Trade tariffs with Canada and China
  • Avoiding tariffs with Mexico
  • Fed holds interest rates steady
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (changes on week as of Sunday’s close):

  • March 2025 corn down $.04 at $4.82
  • December 2025 corn down $.01 at $4.60
  • March 2025 soybeans down $.13 at $10.42
  • November 2025 soybeans up $.03 at $10.51
  • March soybean oil about up .89 cents at 46.11 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $4.80 at $301.10/short ton
  • March wheat up $.15 at $5.59
  • July 2025 wheat up $.14 at $5.84
  • March 2025 cotton down 1.73 cents at 65.88 cents/lb
  • December 2025 cotton down 0.79 cents at 68.71 cents/lb
  • October WTI Crude Oil down $2.13 at $72.53/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer retail sales rose 0.7% in March and outlays in February were also stronger than previously reported, indicating the economy got a boost from consumer spending in the first quarter.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up another 115 million gallons from the week prior. Crude oil stocks have increased 628 gallons over the past month.  Conversely, US gasoline and distillate stocks were down 48 and 116 million gallons respectively. On the lower gasoline stocks- the average regular gasoline price was up 4 cents week over week.
  • Ethanol production pulled back sharply to 289 million gallons- down 21 million from the week prior as several plants took scheduled maintenance. Ethanol stocks levels decreased 5 million gallons but remain at relatively large levels.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-1.9%), corn (-1.7%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (-19.6%) and rice (-77%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+5.8%) and soybean oil (+3.8%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (16,016 contracts) soybeans (28,565 contracts) and Chicago wheat (14,455 contracts). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.821 head or 101.5% of last year but below the 102.1% trade estimate. March cattle placements at 87.7% of last year were well below the 93.0% trade estimate with marketings of 86.3% year over year- down from a 88.1% expectation.
  • Export sales for the most recent week were neutral to bearish with corn sales of 19.7 million bushels only slightly better than the marketing year low set the week prior of 12.8 million. Soybean sales made a counter seasonal move of 17.8 million bushels. There were net cancelations of 0.1 and 3.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and wheat respectively.
  • Export inspections were supportive to corn and grain sorghum while neutral to soybeans and wheat. Reported corn inspections of 63.9 million bushels were the largest of the marketing year and highest weekly volume in nearly 2 years.
  • National corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete- ahead of 10% on average. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8%- double the five-year average. Of states reporting plantings- most states are ahead of average.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating dropped a surprising 10 points to 336 (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 270 this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crop market continues general fall
  • Added trade support?
  • USDA Ag Outlook Forum bearish
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben track falling crop prices and where they might be headed.
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.12 at $4.20
  • December 2024 corn down $.08 $4.62
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.08 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $11.59
  • March soybean oil down 1.45 cents at 45.99 cents/lb.
  • March soybean meal up $3.50 at $350.00/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.27 at $5.66
  • July 2024 wheat down $.29 at $5.66
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $.86 at $77.97/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Two separate measures of inflation came in hotter than anticipated. The Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1% year over year vs expectations of 2.9%. Similarly, the Producer Price Index came in at 0.9% month over month vs expectations of 0.1% increase and -0.1% in January.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down 2.3% for Chicago Wheats, up 2.1% for corn and up 1.4% for soybeans.
  • Managed money traders continue to sell Chicago corn and soybean contracts. The net short for corn increased 16,597 contracts which took them over the philosophical threshold of 300,000 contracts. The record was set in April 2019 at just over 322,000 contracts. Managed money was also a seller of Chicago soybeans by 4,200 contracts to 134,500 contracts. The record for soybeans was May 2019 at just under 190,000 contracts.
  • Crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 505 million gallons for the week leaving them 7% below last year. Gasoline stocks declined 153 million gallons but 2% higher than this same week last year. Distillate stocks were down 80 million gallons and are 5% higher than last year. West Texas Intermediate Oil prices are creeping back up to $80 per barrel after reaching the low $70 range in early February.
  • Ethanol production increased again this week to 318 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 97 million bushels. Ethanol stocks increased 43 million gallons.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported soybean crush numbers that disappointed the market. Soybean crush for January came in at 185.8 million bushels- four million less than the trade had anticipated, although still a January monthly record. Even though soybean crush was lower, soybean oil stocks also grew and were above all expectations implying January soybean oil use was rather bearish.
  • At USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the agency released their first balance sheets for 2024/25 marketing year. The numbers were bearish to new crop supplies but not as bearish as many in the industry were anticipating.
  • US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed last week. For corn- export sales of 51.4 million bushels were a 9-week high while soybean sales of 13.0 million bushels and wheat sales of 12.8 million bushels were both on the low end of expectations. There were net cancelations of grain sorghum sales amounting to 100,000 bushels for the current year and cancelations of all 2.4 million bushels of 2024/25 sales. There are no grain sorghum commitments for next year at this point after reaching 7.5 million bushels a few weeks ago.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Penciling out profit
  • South American production
  • South American second crop planting
  • Managing production cost
  • Corn acreage to fall
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben look at falling crop prices across the board and what it’ll take to stabilize.

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.05 at $4.40
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 $4.74
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $11.94
  •  November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.80
  • March soybean oil down 2.61 cents at 45.55 cents/lb
    – March soybean meal down $1.50 at $354.30/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.06 at $5.93
  • July 2024 wheat down $.03 at $6.09
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $76.78/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US Gross Domestic Product grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023- down from the 4.9% in the third quarter but well above the 2% growth expected. Taking out the sharp recovery after the pandemic in 2020. The 3rd and 4th quarters are the strongest two quarters back-to-back since 2014.
  • Core Inflation at 0.2 month over month was right inline with expectations and core inflation year over year of 2.6% was as expected.
  • The housing market continues to run hot- with New home sales at 664,000 up from last month and expectations and pending home sales up to a huge number of 8.3% in December- the largest number since June 2020.
  • It was another fairly risky week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased across the board for Chicago wheat (2.7%), Corn (5.7%), soybeans (6.5%), soybean oil (3.7%), soybean meal (3.4%), cotton (10.7%), and rough rice (0.4%).
  • Producers and Merchants increased their net positions of corn adding to the small net long while also adding net positions of soybeans shrinking their small net short. Producers and Merchants sold off net wheat contracts adding to the net short in Chicago wheat.
  • Managed money traders sold off another 4,743 contracts of Chicago corn while selling 15,045 contracts of soybeans to increase the net short there as well. Managed accounts added 26,518 contracts of cotton futures to take the small net short into a net long.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down another 388 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 206 million gallons on a 5% week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • As expected, US ethanol production pulled back to 240 million gallons- down from 310 million gallons the week prior due to the cold snap in the US. Even with the drastic drop in ethanol production-ethanol stocks increased due to the drop in gasoline demand and blending.
  • Exports sales were lower this week nearly across the board and bearish for soybeans. Only SRW wheat posted week over week gains.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections for the week were neutral for corn and soybeans, while bearish for wheats and grain sorghum. Corn, HRW and HRS wheats were the only commodities up week over week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Consumer sentiment at two-year high
  • Oilseed outlook
  • Managed money profit taking
  • Managing when to sell
  • Record December soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben discuss marketing crops around profit taking

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  •  March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.45
  • December 2024 corn down $.06 $4.75
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.23
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.97
  • March soybean oil down 2.19 cents at 48.16 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $7.50 at $355.80/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat flat at $5.96
  • July 2024 wheat down $.07 at $6.12
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.02 at $74.67/barrel

Weekly Highlights 

  • The December National Oilseed Processors Report showed their members crushed a record 195.3 million bushels of soybeans in December- up from 189 in November and 177.5 million last December. Cumulative soybean crush is running 40 million bushels of last years pace with USDA expected an 88-million-bushel year over year increase.
  • The US economy continues to show resistance. The Home Builder Confidence Index reported a reading of 44 increased from 39 in December and analysist expectations of 39. This signal that while contracting its not contracting as fast. Lower mortgage rates boosted confidence.
  • Consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level since July 2021 reflecting optimism regarding slowing inflation and rising incomes.
  • The US labor market remains tight as jobless claims fall under 200,000 and lowest level in 16 months. Employers may be adding fewer workers but they are holding on to the ones they have and paying higher wages.
  • It was a fairly risk on week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased for Chicago wheat (5.7%), Corn (8.1%), soybeans (4.9%), soybean oil (5.6%), soybean meal (6.2%), and cotton (2.7%) while rough rice fell (2.1%).
  • Producers and merchants increased their futures and options positions of Chicago corn more than 25,000 contracts with managed money increasing their net short position 29,819 contracts. The managed money net short for corn is quickly reaching a resistance level close to the largest net short in 15 years.
  • Managed money for soybeans also increased the net short 45.5 thousand contracts.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 105 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 125 million gallons on a slight week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • US ethanol production pulled back to 310 million gallons but well above the 296 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks have built to a 10 year high. The cold weather will likely slow US ethanol production over the next several weeks. Higher natural gas prices and lower ethanol prices are cutting into ethanol plant margins.
  • Export sales were bullish for corn and wheat last week while neutral for beans and grain sorghum. Sales were higher week over week across the board.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral. Corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum were all down week over week, while total wheats were slightly higher.
  • Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed as of January 1 report showed all cattle on feed at 102.1% of last year.