Livestock Monitor- A Newsletter for Extension Staff
Livestock Marketing Information Center – State Extension Services in Cooperation with the USDA
(Previously published online: April 8, 2022)
(Image Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center)
The Easter holiday season is approaching, and this year the holiday falls a little later, on April 17th. This year has seen a slower pace to lamb slaughter leading up to the holiday compared to past years. Through the first quarter this year, weekly lamb slaughter has averaged about 30,000 head per week which is down 24% from the prior year. Typically, in the weeks leading up to Easter, lamb slaughter will climb. In 2022, a similar increase has started with the last week of March increasing more than 4,800 head (15%) from the prior week to over 36,100 head indicating producers are marketing lambs for Easter. Estimated (sheep and lamb) slaughter for the first two weeks of April was reported at 36,000 head, below the last week of March.
Consumers will be facing much higher lamb prices for Easter this year. The lamb cutout value has averaged over $600 per cwt during the first quarter of 2022, up 50% ($200) from last year and a record level. Compared to the five-year average (2016-20), the lamb cutout value for the first quarter of 2022 has risen even higher, up85% or $277 per cwt.
As the lamb cutout has soared and remained at elevated levels since the start of the year, a similar trend has occurred in most lamb cuts. The shoulder has averaged $477 per cwt through the first quarter of the year, up 31% from last year. The leg has averaged $592 per cwt through the first three months of the year, up 31% over 2021. From last year, the loin has increased 36% with a year-to-date average of $937 per cwt. Of the lamb cuts, the rack has seen the largest increase from a year ago, up 58% with a year-to-date average of $1,512 per cwt. Although prices are elevated, retail supermarkets typically start to feature lamb prior to Easter.
USDA AMS reports weekly retail feature rate activity for lamb and veal at major retail supermarket outlets. The feature rate activity is defined as “the amount of sampled stores advertising any reported lamb/veal item during the current week, expressed as a percentage of the total sample.” Trends in the feature rate depend on the timing of the Easter holiday. Typically, during the first three months of the year, the feature rate will average about 10%. In the two weeks leading up to Easter, the rate will typically jump to about 15%-20% and in prior years has jumped over 40%. This year, the feature rate has followed the typical level averaging about 9% during the first quarter. Two weeks ago, the feature rate was 10.6%, possibly an indication that retailers were starting to feature lamb for Easter. Last week the feature rate jumped to 17.9% which is in line with typical trends for the two weeks before Easter. With one more week before Easter, the feature rate will likely be higher, but consumers will be looking at a significant increase in lamb prices from a year ago.