Weekly Commodity Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week, Will and Ben discuss ethanol production and continued interest rate pressure.

Topics:
– Market recap
– Corn demand, ethanol production up
– Export sales remain unimpressive
– Federal Reserve action moving forward
– U.S. crop conditions
– Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– September corn down $.49 at $5.04
– December 2023 corn down $.43 at $5.13
– September soybeans down $.83 at $13.70
– November soybeans down $.75 at $13.31
– September soybean oil down 5.10 cents at 63.11 cents/lb
– September soybean meal down $6.60 at $423.80/short ton
– September 2023 wheat 80 $.80 at $6.65
– July 2024 wheat down $.73 at $6.91
– June WTI Crude Oil up $3.51 at $81.88/barrel

Weekly Highlights
• Finally, one part of US corn demand is showing some life. US weekly ethanol production rose to a 28-month high last week at 322 million gallons.
• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, citing still elevated inflation as a rationale for what is now the highest US central bank policy rate in 16 years.
• Weekly US agricultural export sales were neutral last week with corn, soybeans and collective wheats up week over week. Sorghum was down week over week. Everything was within expectations.
• Open interest positions were down for corn (-2.8%), soybeans (-0.5%), soybean oil (-6.6%), and soybean meal (-0.1%) while being up for cotton (+11.5%), and rough rice (+15.3%).
• In the wake of renewed Russian attacks in Ukraine money managers bought back 73,529 positions of Chicago corn giving the commodity a net long while producers and merchants were sellers of 47,896 contracts. Managed money traders added 24,925 positions to their already long position while producers and merchants sold another 33,410 positions.
• US agricultural export inspections were on the higher end of all expectations and relatively strong compared to recent weeks. Wheat exports exceeded all pre-report expectations.
• US crop conditions largely fell more than market traders had expected this week. Corn and soybeans were down 2% while spring wheat was down 7% all compared to an expected 1% week over week decline, cotton fell 5%.
• 80% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 81% at this time last year and a three-year average of 83%.

What Factors are Driving the Current Grain Market Volatility?

By: Seungki Lee, Assistant Professor, Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University

Click here to access PDF version of the articles

During the last few weeks, grain futures markets have showed significant swings in response to several events: the expanding drought, USDA’s June Acreage Report, and the looming Black Sea Grain deal. The heightened uncertainty in the commodity market is causing concern among US growers about market prospects. Given the current influence of multiple variables on prices, relying solely on price indices may lead to a misinterpretation of the market outlook. Therefore, in this article, we will look into three primary factors individually that have the potential to impact the market in the upcoming months.

  1. Expanding Drought Conditions and USDA’s July WASDE Report

The first and very perceivable force that raises uncertainty is the domestic growing condition – the expanding drought in the Midwest. A striking example is that 98% of Minnesota’s crop land are currently experiencing drought (Brown, 2023). USDA’s July WASDE report adjusted down corn yield to 177.5 bushels per acre, 4 bushels down from last month, whereas soybean yield forecast was not changed. However, a substantial change in the acreage projection (corn up and soybean down) in the June USDA’s Acreage Report mainly determined the overall production estimates. This indicates that the market has not fully accounted for the potential yield reduction caused by the drought. Despite the undeniable impact of the drought, the exact extent of harvest reduction remains uncertain, further contributing to market unpredictability. Even though commodity prices hold steady, growers can be largely worse off (Probert et al., 2023). Table 1 provides a quick summary of July WASDE updates for new crop corn, soybean, and wheat.

Table 1. Summary of July WASDE Estimates

  Corn Soybean Wheat
Marketing Year 23/24F ∆Jun ∆22/23 23/24F ∆Jun ∆22/23 23/24F ∆Jun ∆22/23
Yield (bu/acre) 177.5 -4.0 +4.1 52.0 ** +2.5 46.1 +1.2 -0.4
Production 15,320 +55 +1,590 4,300 -210 +24 1,739 +74 89
Total Supply 16,747 +5 +1,615 4,575 -185 0 2,449 +51 -21
Feed & Residual 5,650 +225            
Ethanol 5,300 +75            
Crush       2,300 -10 +80      
Domestic Use 12,385 +305 2,426 -10 +85 1,132 +20 +1
Exports 2,100 +450 1,850 -125 -130 725 -34
Total Use 14,485 +755 4,276 -135 -45 1,857 +20 -33
Ending Stocks 2,262 +5 +860 300 -50 +44 592 +31 +12
Price ($/bu) 4.80 -1.80 12.40 +0.30 -1.80 7.50 -0.20 +1.33

Note: The default unit is a million bushels if not specified.

Continue reading What Factors are Driving the Current Grain Market Volatility?

Coffee & Grain Webinar Recap – Tight Supply Drives High Commodity Prices

On Monday morning’s Coffee and Grain Zoom, Dr. Seungki Lee (Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics) discussed  the grain market outlook and the new crop prospects based on the USDA February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. In all three major crops – corn, soybean, and wheat, strong prices are projected in the 2022/2023 market mainly due to the tight supply. Additionally, Brazil was singled out as its production can swing both the 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 commodity markets.

Click here to read Dr. Lee’s Summary Report

 

Evaluating the Prevent Plant Option

By: Eric Richer & Chris Bruynis, OSU Extension Educators

Planting progress goes differently every year and in each part of the state. This year is no different in Ohio. Some places got in early and are finished. Others had their ‘normal’ planting progress with ‘normal’ Mother Nature breaks, perhaps with some re-plant needed. And still others have not had ideal conditions all spring to plant.  As such, we have received some recent calls regarding the mechanics and economics of utilizing the Prevent Plant through crop insurance this year in certain parts of the state. First and foremost, we are not crop insurance agents, so speaking with your agent is of utmost importance. In this article, we will walk through an example on the economics of electing Prevent Plant.

In Ohio, once you arrive at the final plant date of June 5 for corn (already passed) and June 20 for soybeans, you basically have 3 options in a corn scenario: Continue reading Evaluating the Prevent Plant Option

The 2022 PLC and ARC Decision

By: Gary SchnitkeyNick Paulson, and Krista Swanson, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois and Carl Zulauf, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics Ohio State University.

Farmers will again have until March 15 to make commodity title program selections. Given the current high prices, commodity title payments are not expected from any program option for the 2022 marketing year. If a change in conditions resulted in payments, those would be received in October 2023, after the close of the 2022 marketing year. Farmers wishing to purchase the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) crop insurance policy must select Price Loss Coverage (PLC) as the commodity title choice. Based on current price projections, Agriculture Risk Coverage at the county level (ARC-CO) will maximize the chance of payment for soybeans, although that chance will be small. The probability of payments is roughly the same for corn and soybeans.

Decision Overview

Continue reading The 2022 PLC and ARC Decision

Save the Dates – Central Ohio Agronomy School

Due to COVID uncertainties the 2022 Central Ohio Agronomy School has been pushed to March. 

Monday March 7 – 6:30 – 9:00p.m.

Monday March 14 – 6:30 – 9:00p.m.

Monday March 21 – 6:30 – 9:00p.m.

Monday March 28 – 6:30 – 9:00p.m.

The School will be at the new Ramser 4-H Activity Center (on the fairgrounds)

700 Perimeter Dr.  Mount Vernon, OH  43050

More details to come

Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage for the 2021 Crop Year

by: Mary Griffith, Chris Zoller, Hallie Williams, OSU Extension Educators

Enrollment for the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs for the 2021 crop year opened in October, with the deadline to enroll and make amendments to program elections on March 15, 2021. This signup is for potential payments for the 2021 crop.

If changes are not made by the March 15th deadline, the election defaults to the programs selected for the 2020 crop year with no penalty. While it is optional to make changes to program elections, producers are required to enroll (sign a contract) each year to be eligible to receive payments. So, even if you do not change your program elections, you will still need to make an appointment at the Farm Service Agency to sign off on enrollment for the 2021 crop year by that March 15th deadline.

Producers have the option to enroll covered commodities in either ARC-County, ARC-Individual, or PLC. Program elections are made on a crop-by-crop basis unless selecting ARC-Individual where all crops under that FSA Farm Number fall under that program. These are the same program options that were available to producers during the 2019 and 2020 crop years. In some cases producers may want to amend program election to better manage the potential risks facing their farms during the 2021 crop year.

As you consider amending your program choices, here are some important reminders:

Continue reading Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage for the 2021 Crop Year