Month: March 2021

Expect Farm Liquidity to Decline in 2021

 

by: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR, Tuscarawas County

Liquidity is the ability of a farm business to quickly convert current assets to cash to pay short-term (less than 12 months) cash obligations, debt, family living, and taxes. It is one of several measures used to gauge farm financial performance over time. The United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) is forecasting a decline in farm sector liquidity in 2021.  This article will discuss working capital, current ratio, and times interest earned ratio financial measures.

Working Capital

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Wheat Growth Stages and Associated Management- Feekes 6.0 through 9.0

Source: Laura Lindsey, Pierce Paul, Ed Lentz, OSU Extension

It is important to correctly identify winter wheat growth stages to enhance management decisions, avoiding damage to the crop and unwarranted or ineffective applications. Remember, exact growth stage cannot be determined by just looking at the height of the crop or based on calendar dates. Remember to stage several plants from several areas within your field.

Here, we will focus on staging wheat Feekes 6.0 through 9.0.

Feekes 6.0: At Feekes 6.0 growth stage, nodes are all formed, but sandwiched together so that they are not readily distinguishable. The first node is swollen and appears above the soil surface. This stage is commonly referred to as “jointing”. Above the node is the head or spike, which is being pushed upwards eventually from the boot. The spike at this stage is fully differentiated, containing future spikelets and florets.

Growers should remove and carefully examine plants for the first node. It can usually be seen and felt by removing the lower leaves and leaf sheaths from the large wheat stems. A sharp knife or razor blade is useful to split stems to determine the location of the developing head. A video showing how to identify the Feekes 6.0 growth stage can be found in the video below.

Feekes 7.0: At Feekes 7.0 growth stage, the second node becomes visible. This stage is characterized by the rapid expansion of the head and a second detectable node. Look for the presence of two nodes- one should be between 1.5 and 3 inches from the base of them stem and the other should be about 4 to 6 inches above the base of the stem. These nodes are usually seen as clearly swollen areas of a distinctively different (darker) shade of green than the rest of the stem. The upper node may be hidden by the leaf sheath; you may have to run your fingers up the stem to feel for it. If only one node is present, the wheat is still at Feekes 6.0 growth stage. Wheat will still respond to nitrogen applied at Feekes 7.0 if weather prevented an earlier application; however, mechanical damage may occur from applicator equipment. A video showing how to identify the Feekes 7.0 and 8.0 growth stages can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ7Lvsux1y8

Feekes 8.0: At Feekes 8.0 growth stage, the flag leaf is visible, but still rolled up. This growth stage begins when the last leaf (flag leaf) begins to emerge from the whorl. This stage is particularly significant because the flag leaf makes up approximately 75% of the effective leaf area that contributes to grain fill. It is therefore important to protect and maintain the health of this leaf (free of disease and insect damage) before and during grain development. When the flag leaf emerges, three nodes are visible above the soil surface. To confirm that the leaf emerging is the flag leaf, split the leaf sheath above the highest node. If the head and no additional leaves are found inside, Feekes 8.0 is confirmed and the grower should decide whether or not to use foliar fungicides to manage early-season and overwintering fungal diseases. Nitrogen fertilizer applications at or after Feekes 8.0 growth stage may enhance grain protein levels, but are questionable with respect to added yield. Moreover, additional N may increase the severity of some foliar diseases, particularly the rusts.

Feekes 9.0: Feekes 9.0 growth stage begins when the flag leaf is fully emerged from the whorl with the ligule and collar visible. From this point on, leaves are referred to in relation to the flag leaf (e.g., the first leaf below the flag leaf is the F-1, the second leaf below is F-2, and so forth). A video showing how to identify Feekes 9.0 and 10.0 growth stages can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHGhq0qSM1o&t=22s

Typical March Weather Continues

Source: Aaron Wilson, OSU Extension

Figure 1). Multi-sensor precipitation estimates for the past 30-days ending March 14, 2021. Courtesy of the Midwest Regional Climate Center.

After a warm December and January but chilly February, Ohio’s winter will go down as one of near-average temperatures for the season. This past winter also ranks as the 23rd driest on record (1895-2021). This was a bit unusual given the cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a pattern referred to as La Niña, and one that often brings wet weather to the Ohio Valley during winter and early spring.

A more active pattern has certainly set in over the last several weeks, especially across southern Ohio. Precipitation for the last 30 days shows quite a contrast between northern and southern Ohio, with less than 1 inch falling across northwestern counties, while areas near the Ohio River have experienced more than 4 inches (Fig. 1). With long-term lingering dry conditions relative to average across northern Ohio, the current U.S. Drought Monitor depicts more than 50% of the state in abnormally dry conditions, with Fulton, Lucas, and northern Wood counties currently in moderate drought conditions. Whether this long-term dryness will have an impact on the summer growing season could largely be determined by the weather pattern over the next several weeks.

Figure 2: Forecast precipitation for the next 7 days. Valid from 7 pm Monday March 15, 2021 through 7 pm Monday March 23, 2021. Figure from the Weather Prediction Center.

After a warm December and January but chilly February, Ohio’s winter will go down as one of near-average temperatures for the season. This past winter also ranks as the 23rd driest on record (1895-2021). This was a bit unusual given the cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a pattern referred to as La Niña, and one that often brings wet weather to the Ohio Valley during winter and early spring.

A more active pattern has certainly set in over the last several weeks, especially across southern Ohio. Precipitation for the last 30 days shows quite a contrast between northern and southern Ohio, with less than 1 inch falling across northwestern counties, while areas near the Ohio River have experienced more than 4 inches (Fig. 1). With long-term lingering dry conditions relative to average across northern Ohio, the current U.S. Drought Monitor depicts more than 50% of the state in abnormally dry conditions, with Fulton, Lucas, and northern Wood counties currently in moderate drought conditions. Whether this long-term dryness will have an impact on the summer growing season could largely be determined by the weather pattern over the next several weeks.

A system that brought rain (freezing rain and sleet to some areas) across the state on Monday will be moving out of the region on Tuesday. After a brief break on Wednesday, a potent system will move through on Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Under the influence of high pressure, conditions will dry out over the weekend with fair weather expected. Highs in the 50s and 60s midweek will trend cooler for Thursday and Friday, then slightly warmer temperatures will resume for the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.75-1.50” of rain across Ohio over the next 7 days (Fig. 2).

The latest NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 8-14 day period (March 23 -29) and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show a strong probability of above average temperatures and elevated probability of above average precipitation (Fig. 3). Normal highs (north-to-south) during the period are in the upper-40s to mid-50s, lows in the upper-20s to mid-30s, with 0.5-1.00” of precipitation per week.

Figure 3: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for March 23 – 29, 2020 for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

Considerations of a Flexible Lease Arrangement

Source: Chris Zoller, Barry Ward, &  Mike Estadt, OSU Extension

Thousands of Ohio crop acres are rented from landowners by farmers.  While the most common is likely a cash agreement, the flexible lease may be worthy of consideration for some farmers.  This article will provide a broad overview of the flexible lease option, including advantages, disadvantages, and structure.

The information provided here is only a summary from the Fixed and Flexible Cash Rental Arrangements for Your Farm published by the North Central Extension Farm Management Committee.  Anyone interested in learning more about flexible leasing arrangements is encouraged to read more about this topic at this site: https://aglease101.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/NCFMEC-01.pdf.

What is a Flexible Lease?

Because of uncertainties with prices, yields, and input costs, some farmers and landowners are apprehensive about entering into a fixed long-term cash rental arrangement.  From the perspective of the farmer, the concerns include poor yields, commodity price declines, or sharp increases to input prices might impact cash flow if there is a long-term fixed arrangement.  In times like we are experiencing now, landowners want to capitalize on high commodity prices or high yields.

Therefore, the operator and landowner may turn to the use of a flexible cash rent of one kind or another. The idea of a flexible cash rent usually pertains only to the rent charged for cropland.

Advantage of Flexible Leases

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USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030

Source: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR, Tuscarawas County

Click here for PDF version–easier to view Figures

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the interagency report: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030.  These long-term projections include several assumptions related to the Farm Bill, macroeconomic conditions, farm policy, and trade agreements.  While long-term projections are based on assumptions and many unknowns, they do provide a glimpse of how U.S. farm commodity prices may perform over the next several years.  Anyone interested in reading specific details is encouraged to see the report available here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/100526/oce-2021-1.pdf?v=3513.2.

This article briefly summarizes selected selections of the 102-page report, including U.S. crop prices, milk production, U.S. farm income, and government payments.  Figures from the report are included to accompany the text.

U.S. Crop Prices

Rising global demand for diversified diets and protein will continue to stimulate import demand for grains. Increased demand for these crops is accompanied by rising competition for market share from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and the Black Sea region. The United States also faces challenges related to ongoing tensions with trade partners and a relatively strong U.S. dollar. Although strong trade competition continues, U.S. commodities remain generally competitive in global agricultural markets, with U.S. corn and soybean exports projected at record highs by 2030/31. Nominal prices for wheat, cotton, and rice are expected to rise modestly between 2021/22 and 2030/31.

  Continue reading USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030 →

OSU Extension Virtual Programming: Week of March 8

The following virtual programs are available next week.

 

MONDAY, MARCH 8

Farm Bill Webinar: 2021 Corn and Soybean Crop Insurance Considerations

10:00 am to 12:00 pm

2021 Virtual Ohio AgritourismReady Conference

6:30 pm to 8:30 pm

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 9

Virtual Conservation Tillage Conference

8:00 am to 3:00 pm

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 10

Virtual Conservation Tillage Conference

8:00 am to 3:00 pm

Southern Ohio Farm Show (Virtual)

10:00 am to 11:00 am

Beef Sire Selection for the Dairy Herd (Virtual)

12:00 pm to 1:00 pm

Farm Office Live

7:00 pm to 8:30 pm

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 11

Virtual Conservation Tillage Conference

8:00 am to 3:00 pm

The Dirt on Soil Health: Investing Below the Surface (Virtual)

8:00 am to 8:30 am

 

Wood Destroying Insect Inspection Training Webinar

8:30 am to 3:30 pm

Midwest Women in Ag Community Education Series

9:00 am to 11:00 am

County Outlook Meeting (Virtual)

10:00 am to 11:30 am

East Ohio Women In Agriculture Program Series

12:00 pm to 1:00 pm

Butler Innovative Farm Forum (Virtual)

7:00 pm to 8:30 pm

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 12

Virtual Conservation Tillage Conference

8:00 am to 3:00 pm

A DAY in the WOODS (Virtual)

10:00 am to 11:30 am

Escape to the Forest Webinar

10:00 am to 12:00 pm

Farm Office Live

 

Using Zoom Well

By: Kristina Sullivan -Knox County Master Gardener

New ways to learn are in the air, for all of us.  You may have watched your kids or grandchildren go to school on their computers, but you are also invited to use new tools for educational credits in the Master Gardener program.  And your friends and relatives may be inviting you to be part of distanced “meetings.”  One of the most popular agents for these meetings is the Zoom software.  Information follows on what Zoom can do, and how to take advantage of it and communicate effectively.

Using Zoom from Home

Zoom is a software program now very popular, allowing users to communicate using computers, electronic tablets, or cell phones.  Zoom users can record sound and pictures or video, and share computer screens.  The company has invented some specialized terms that are likely to become part of our common language, such as “Zoom Meeting,” a conference using smart phones or computer cameras.  Another term we see in business settings is the “Zoom Room,” a room all wired, connected, and organized for Zoom Meetings, usually only possible for big companies.

Most of us are using Zoom from home.  Plan for good communication, for sound and sight.  Block your Zoom space from household noise as much as possible; it can interfere with your own effort to contribute to a meeting.  Close the room door, or ask housemates to keep it quiet until after you are finished.  Plan a light on your face, from the side if possible, so that others can recognize you.  Check your own background for your picture to be sure there is nothing showing that you would rather keep private.  Make a space for paper and pencil in case you want to keep notes or write down a name, title, phone number or Web address (URL).  If you are making a report or presentation, remember the visual lessons you learned from video taping:  have neat hair, dark clothing (bright white makes a glare on camera), and sit up straight.

If the meeting is expected to be a long one, more than 45 minutes, set up a glass of water or other beverage in a handy spot.  Keep tissues handy for sneezes. When you speak, speak up!  The microphones cannot fix whispers or mumbling.

Make a listening space in your mind, clearing out other thoughts and concerns.  Most of the OSU lecturers available to us have spent many years studying and developing their knowledge of a range of topics, and we will benefit most from them by listening well.

 

The person organizing the meeting or lecture sends you an invitation in the form of a URL in an email.  By clicking on the URL, you send a signal that you are ready to join the meeting, and you will be admitted.  Log on early and look at the screen.  You can participate by sound only by muting the microphone icon (click on it); it is actually a good idea to mute the microphone except when you are talking.  This blocks your dog barking noise, and helps others to hear better.  You can also block your picture.  You can record or tape the meeting.  There are several features Zoom can do, some of which are only for the organizer and some available to everyone on the call, such as screen sharing.

You can ask questions in real time, or type questions or comments on the “Chat” box on your screen.

At the end of the meeting or lecture, the organizer will log off, and you can click the “log off” box and end your participation.

More About Zoom

As a relatively new software product, Zoom is continuing to work on important issues like security.  One of the early problems with this software was “Zoom bombers,” uninvited participants who joined meetings and sent all participants graphic videos or pornography.  Meetings can be protected by “locking” the session after it begins, so no one can join late, and certainly not uninvited.  This is of great importance for companies concerned about trade secrets.  Organizers can now remove participants from meetings, mute them, and disable “private chats,” in which participants snarl the meeting by talking only to each other.  Objectionable participants can be reported to the Zoom company.

The company has several tiers of service involving different fee structures and intended for different sizes of audiences, participants, and time spans.  It is defined generically as “a cloud based video conferencing service for virtual meetings.”  Zoom can also be connected to a TV set.  Free of charge, Zoom will work on any device; it will automatically log out the user who logs into a second device at the same time.  A Zoom client, such as OSU, has paid the fees to make it possible for employees to connect Zoom to the email system and also to the computerized calendar system.

Additional services can be offered through special applications, or apps, designed to be used with Zoom, on desktop or Apple computers, and on phones using Ios or Android operating systems.  These are called Zapps.  Some are free, some cost fees.

The Google company has developed meeting software that competes with Zoom, but it appears at this writing that Zoom is the preferred software.

On Zoom

Zoom also supports a public platform for performances and the marketplace, involving payment (“marketization”).  For classes, concerts, dramatic performances, music lessons, or any other event online, this software brings access close to home.  They accept PayPal or major credit cards.

Farm Office Live Continues!

Source: Barry Ward, David Marrison, Peggy Hall, Dianne Shoemaker – Ohio State University Extension

“Farm Office Live” continues this winter as an opportunity for you to get the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis and other related issues from faculty and educators with the College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences at The Ohio State University.

Each Farm Office Live begins with presentations on select ag law and farm management topics from our specialists followed by open discussions and a Q&A session. Viewers can attend “Farm Office Live” online each month on Wednesday evening or Friday morning, or can catch a recording of each program.

The full slate of offerings remaining for this winter are:

  • March 10th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
  • March 12th 10:00 – 11:30 am
  • April 7th 7:00 – 8:30 pm
  • April 9th 10:00 – 11:30 am

Topics to be addressed in March include:

  • Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP)
  • Proposed Stimulus Legislation
  • General Legislative Update
  • Ohio Farm Business Analysis – A Look at Crops
  • Crop Budget & Rental Rates

To register or view past recordings, visit https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive

For more information or to submit a topic for discussion, email Julie Strawser at strawser.35@osu.edu or call the farm office at 614-292-2433. We look forward to you joining us!