On this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast, Nathanael Thompson and James Mintert explore what’s been taking place in the Eastern Corn Belt on corn basis, the May/July CBT corn spread, as well as the July/September CBT corn spread, and discuss how you might pursue some marketing strategies for the remainder of the ’22 crop that you might have in storage.
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The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for April reveals a consistent picture of the old crop. Southern Latin American countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, continue to suffer from drought damage, whilst other South American countries, such as Brazil and Paraguay, have a strong harvest outlook, which will likely lead to an increase in overall crop supply from South America compared to last year.
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Source: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR, Tuscarawas County
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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the interagency report: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030. These long-term projections include several assumptions related to the Farm Bill, macroeconomic conditions, farm policy, and trade agreements. While long-term projections are based on assumptions and many unknowns, they do provide a glimpse of how U.S. farm commodity prices may perform over the next several years. Anyone interested in reading specific details is encouraged to see the report available here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/100526/oce-2021-1.pdf?v=3513.2.
This article briefly summarizes selected selections of the 102-page report, including U.S. crop prices, milk production, U.S. farm income, and government payments. Figures from the report are included to accompany the text.
U.S. Crop Prices
Rising global demand for diversified diets and protein will continue to stimulate import demand for grains. Increased demand for these crops is accompanied by rising competition for market share from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, the EU, and the Black Sea region. The United States also faces challenges related to ongoing tensions with trade partners and a relatively strong U.S. dollar. Although strong trade competition continues, U.S. commodities remain generally competitive in global agricultural markets, with U.S. corn and soybean exports projected at record highs by 2030/31. Nominal prices for wheat, cotton, and rice are expected to rise modestly between 2021/22 and 2030/31.
OSU Extension is pleased to be offering the third session of “Farm Office Live” session on Monday evening, April 27, 2020 from 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. Farmers, educators, and ag industry professionals are invited to log-on for the latest updates on the issues impact our farm economy.
The session will begin with the Farm Office Team answering questions asked over the past week. Topics to be highlighted include:
- Update on the CARES Paycheck Protection Program
- Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL)
- Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) Update
- Ethanol and biofuel update
- ARC and PLC Forecasts
- Other legal and economic issues
Plenty of time has been allotted for questions and answers from attendees. Each office session is limited to 500 people and if you miss the on-line office hours, the session recording can be accessed at farmoffice.osu.edu the following day. Participants can pre-register or join in on Monday evening at https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive
Source: farmdoc daily(9):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 15, 2019.
The Farm Service Agency (FSA) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released county acreages for crops and prevent plantings based on acreage reports filed by farmers. Even though prevent plant totaled 19 million acres in the United States, planted corn acres in 2019 are only slightly lower than 2018 values. With notable exceptions, corn acres decreased in counties that had large areas of prevent planting and increased in acres with little prevent planting. Soybean acres fell over the vast majority of counties in the United States.
FSA Acreage Data
FSA released their first set of 2019 county-level acreage data on August 1 (see Crop Acreage Data of FSA). This data indicated that there were 85.9 million acres of corn planted in the United States, down by 1% from the 2018 plantings of 86.4 million acres (see Table 1)
The 2019 planting number (85.9 million acres) is expected to increase as FSA continues to update values monthly until January 2020. From 2011 to 2018, corn acreage in the final January report averaged 1.8% higher than the initial August report. However, in recent years, the increase has been much lower. From 2016 to 2018, the January value was .7% higher than the initial August value. A 1.3% increase – the average from 2011 to 2018 – would increase 2019 planted corn acres to 87.4 million acres. A .7% increase – the average from 2016 to 2018 – would increase planted acres to 86.4 million acres, roughly the same as the planted acreage for 2018. Continue reading