Economics

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben look at Brazil’s progress in the sustainable aviation fuel sector.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Wheat rally
  • Weekend Russian attacks
  • U.S. weather impacts
  • Planting progress
  • Brazil’s delivery of SAFs to U.S.
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn up $.08 at $4.39
  • December 2024 corn up $.03 at $4.72
  • May 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $11.61
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.04 at $11.71
  • May soybean oil up 0.19 cents at 45.66 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $5.80 at $344.30/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.19 at $5.70
  • July 2024 wheat up $.20 at $5.87
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $2.87 at $82.01/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer retail sales rose 0.7% in March and outlays in February were also stronger than previously reported, indicating the economy got a boost from consumer spending in the first quarter.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up another 115 million gallons from the week prior. Crude oil stocks have increased 628 gallons over the past month.  Conversely, US gasoline and distillate stocks were down 48 and 116 million gallons respectively. On the lower gasoline stocks- the average regular gasoline price was up 4 cents week over week.
  • Ethanol production pulled back sharply to 289 million gallons- down 21 million from the week prior as several plants took scheduled maintenance. Ethanol stocks levels decreased 5 million gallons but remain at relatively large levels.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-1.9%), corn (-1.7%), soybean meal (-0.4%), cotton (-19.6%) and rice (-77%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+5.8%) and soybean oil (+3.8%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (16,016 contracts) soybeans (28,565 contracts) and Chicago wheat (14,455 contracts). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again.
  • USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all cattle on feed as of April 1 at 11.821 head or 101.5% of last year but below the 102.1% trade estimate. March cattle placements at 87.7% of last year were well below the 93.0% trade estimate with marketings of 86.3% year over year- down from a 88.1% expectation.
  • Export sales for the most recent week were neutral to bearish with corn sales of 19.7 million bushels only slightly better than the marketing year low set the week prior of 12.8 million. Soybean sales made a counter seasonal move of 17.8 million bushels. There were net cancelations of 0.1 and 3.4 million bushels of grain sorghum and wheat respectively.
  • Export inspections were supportive to corn and grain sorghum while neutral to soybeans and wheat. Reported corn inspections of 63.9 million bushels were the largest of the marketing year and highest weekly volume in nearly 2 years.
  • National corn planting progress doubled again this week to 12% complete- ahead of 10% on average. Soybean planting rose from 3% to 8%- double the five-year average. Of states reporting plantings- most states are ahead of average.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating dropped a surprising 10 points to 336 (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 270 this time last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways to lower commodity trading
  • Corn stocks estimates drop
  • Soybean stocks estimates rise
  • Soybean crush sets all-time record
  • Brazilian production shifts
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.31
  • December 2024 corn down $.04 at $4.69
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.23 at $11.58
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.67
  • May soybean oil down 2.43 cents at 45.47 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.50 at $338.50/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat down $.14 at $5.51
  • July 2024 wheat down $.13 at $5.67
  • May WTI Crude Oil down $.73 at $84.88/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose to 3.5% in March, higher than expectation and the third consecutive month of increasing inflation. Shelter and energy costs drove the increase. Following the report, traders pushed the first expected Federal Funds rate cut out to September compared to June moments before the report.
  • The Producer Price Index, another measure of inflation, rose 2.1% from March 2023, which was the largest monthly year over year gain in nearly a year. This was slightly down from an expectation of 2.2%. Month over month prices were up 0.2% compared to up 0.6% in February and pre-report expectations of up 0.3%.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were up 245 million gallons from the week prior. Similarly, US gasoline and distillate stocks were up on lower demand and higher imports. Crude oil prices have eased from their highs experienced last week on easing geopolitical tensions but the risk is still present.
  • Ethanol production pulled back 310 million gallons- down 5 million from the week prior. Ethanol margins decreased to end March but have started to move higher again despite near record ethanol stock levels. Margins remain positive for ethanol producers.
  • USDA lowered US corn ending stocks to 2.122 down 50 million bushels on the month but not as much as the 70-million-bushel drop expected. Demand was increased 25 million bushels for both corn exports and ethanol use.
  • USDA increased soybean ending stocks 25 million bushels on the month and 23 million more than what was expected after cuts to exports, seed and residual more than overcorrect for lower imports.
  • Brazil’s CONAB reduced both total corn production and soybean production for the country 1.8 and 0.5 million metric tons respectively. Both are noticeably lower than USDA’s April numbers.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was down for wheats (-4.1%), corn (-2.8%), soybean oil (-1.8%), soybean meal (-2.0%), cotton (-11.1%) and rice (-5.9%) while being up slightly for soybeans (+1.0%).
  • Managed money traders continued to expand their short positions of corn (3,998) and soybeans (1,054). Corn and soybean managed money contracts pulled back from their record short positions but are rebuilding them again. Traders decreased their net short of Chicago Wheats 1,239 contracts.
  • Last week Bloomberg reported Chinese importers canceled “four or five cargos” of Ukrainian corn booked for delivery in an effort to support local prices ahead of planting.
  • Export sales for week ending March 4th were bearish and pulled the market lower. Corn sales of 12.8 million bushels were the lowest of the marketing year and fell well below expectations. Soybean and wheat sales were also on the low end of expectations.
  • Export inspections with the exception of wheats were flat to lower and uninspiring. The reported soybean volume was the lowest since Mid-September as volumes continue to move seasonally lower. Wheat exports exceeded all pre-report expectations.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed a record high 196.4 million bushels in March. This was 1.2 million bushels below the average trade estimate ahead of the report. The soybean oil stocks volume was on the top end of expectations and the fifth consecutive month of volumes exceeding the average trade estimate.
  • As expected, planting picked up in the western corn belt last week. Six percent of the US corn crop is planted compared to 3% last week and an average pace of 5%. The first soybean planting progress came in at 3% up from an average of 1%. Cotton and rice were 8% and 44% respectively.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating slipped just slightly to 346 down from 348 last week (a perfect score is 500). However, this remains well ahead of 273 last year.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Sideways commodity trading
  • U.S. Jobs & job openings report updates
  • Crude oil stocks building
  • April WASDE pre-report expectations
  • Planting progress
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn flat at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 at $4.73
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.81
  • November 2024 soybeans up $.02 at $11.84
  • May soybean oil down 0.34 cents at 47.90 cents/lb
  • May soybean meal up $2.60 at $336.00/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.65
  • July 2024 wheat up $.08 at $5.80
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $2.43 at $85.61/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • The February JOLTS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) report showed job opening in February totaled 8.8 million matching expectations, while the number of people quitting jobs rose slightly to 3.5 million.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 135 million gallons last week after being up 133 million gallons the week prior. Conversely gasoline stocks declined 179 million gallons and distillate stocks decreased 43 million gallons. Crude Oil prices broke above $90/ barrel last week on middle east tensions but broke lower to start the week on reports of de-escalation.
  • Ethanol production increased to 315 million gallons on the week- up from 310 the week prior and 295 the same week in 2023. Ethanol production continues to run at historically high levels. Gasoline demand was up 6%. Ethanol stocks rose 14 million gallons.
  • Open interest of Chicago grains and oilseeds was up for wheats (+3.6%), Corn (+1.9%), soybeans (+3.1%), Soybean Oil (+2.5%), soybean meal (+2.6%), and Cotton (+0.8%), while being down for rough rice (-0.7%).
  • Managed money traders reduced their net shorts in Chicago wheats 2,322 contracts while increasing their net shorts of corn- 7,826 contracts and soybeans 3,476 contracts. Money managers do not seem concerned about being historically short in corn and soybeans.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were rather weak for the week ending March 28th. Corn, soybean, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats were all down week over week. Soybean sales of 7.1 million bushels were below all pre-report estimates.
  • Export inspections were mixed. Corn export inspections of 55.9 million bushels exceed all expectations, wheat inspections of 18.3 million bushels were on the top end of expectations while soybean inspections of 17.8 million bushels were the lowest since early September.
  • Planting progress was slow with several broad storms moving through the Midwest. Corn planting increased 1% to 3%, which is slightly ahead of the 3-year average of 2%. Rice planting was up 9% to 23% while cotton planting was reported at 4% up from 3%.
  • The winter wheat conditions rating was unchanged at 348 (a perfect score is 500). Up from 276 last year. Kansas at 338 was up from 220 last year. Oklahoma at 365 was up from 260 last year and Test at 324 was up from 250 last year.
  • The March Job Reports showed nonfarm payroll in the US at 303,000 up from 270,000 in February and analyst expectations of 200,000.
  • The US unemployment rate also fell to 3.8% down from 3.9% and stayed below 26th month in a row, the longest stretch since the 1960s.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.  This week Will and Ben discuss USDA’s updated acreage expectations.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • What’s ahead for corn futures
  • USDA grain stocks & prospective plantings review
  • Corn, soybean acreage
  • Drop in principal acreage
  • Corn usage
  • Reports to watch

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • May 2024 corn down $0.01 at $4.35
  • December 2024 corn up $.01 at $4.74
  • May 2024 soybeans down $.16 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.10 at $11.82
  • May soybean oil down 0.47 cents at 48.24 cents/lb.
  • May soybean meal down $6.00 at $333.40/short ton
  • May 2024 wheat up $.06 at $5.57
  • July 2024 wheat up $.05 at $5.72
  • May WTI Crude Oil up $1.65 at $83.18/barrel

  • Weekly Highlights

  • Consumer sentiment climbed to a 2 ½ year high as American’s express increased confidence that inflation will continue to ease and reduce the financial strain on households.
  • Consumer spending in February rebounded after a sluggish start to the year as household spending rose 0.8% in February to market the biggest increase in 13 months. Economists had anticipated 0.5%.
  • US crude oil stocks, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve, increased 133 million gallons on the week. Gasoline stocks increased 55 million gallons while distillate stocks fell 50 million gallons. US gasoline demand was down 1% on the week.
  • Ethanol production increased just slightly to 310 million gallons produced on the week- up from 308 million the week before and 295 million the same week last year. With the higher ethanol production and lower gasoline demand- ethanol stocks increased just slightly on the week indicating a solid week of ethanol exports.
  • Grain crushed for ethanol through February now totals 2,714 million bushels- up 166 million bushels over the same period last year.
  • USDA’s planting intentions report indicated US producers will plant just over 90 million acres of corn in 2024- down 1.8 million acres from analyst expectations ahead of the report. Soybean acreage of 86.510 compared to 86.530 million in expectations. Principal crop acres were down 6.3 million acres. Grain stocks all increased year over year but were as expected.
  • Open interest of Chicago futures and options positions increased for Chicago corn (0.9%), soybeans (2.8%), Soybean oil (0.3%), and cotton (0.7%) while falling for wheats (-1.5%), soybean meal (-0.9%) and rough rice (-6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net shorts of Chicago wheats (16,313 contracts) and Chicago corn (8,742 contracts) while shrinking their net short of soybeans (13,559 contracts). Producers and merchants were big sellers of soybeans while buying back corn and wheats.
  • Export sales of US grains and oilseeds were mixed: corn sales of 47.5 million bushels were on the high side of expectations and wheat sales of 12.5 million bushels were above all expectations. Soybean sales of 9.7 million bushels were half of the week prior and below all trade expectations.
  • Export inspections of US grains and oilseed to international markets were supportive on the most recent week. Corn exports of 56.4 million bushels came in above all pre-report expectations and a marketing year high while wheat exports were on the high side of expectations. With strong exports the corn deficit remained unchanged at 22 million bushels.
  • The First Crop Progress report of the year showed US corn planted at 2%- the same as last year. Cotton planted at 3% comparted to 4% last year.
  • The initial winter wheat conditions score of 348 compares to 279 last year and a 3-year average of 313. (500 is a perfect score).

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Soybean market continues to find support
  • Potential acreage shifts
  • Planting discussion
  • Fed to meet, interest rates in balance
  • Reports to watch

U.S. corn acreage could come in higher than expected

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– May 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.36
– December 2024 corn down $.02 at $4.70
– May 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.87
– November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.80
– May soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 48.70 cents/lb
– May soybean meal down $6.20 at $331.90/short ton
– May 2024 wheat down $.04 at $5.42
– July 2024 wheat down $.02 at $5.57
– May WTI Crude Oil up $4.46 at $81.60/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Initial jobless claims last week of 209,000 were down from expectations of 218,000 and 210,000 the week prior.
  • The Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in February- the largest monthly gain since last August. This was above expectations of 0.3% rise in PPI.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up across the board for the second consecutive week. Chicago Wheats (1.7%), corn (2.4%) and beans (2.6%).
  • Managed money traders increased their net short of Chicago Wheats 7,992 contracts while also decreasing their large net short of Chicago Corn 40,867 contracts and Chicago soybeans 16,862 contracts. Net gains for corn and soybean oil were much larger than expected by daily trade estimate, with soybeans close, while Chicago wheat more negative than expected.
  • US Crude oil stocks decreased for the first time in seven weeks- falling just slightly by 65 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell much further- down 238 million gallons to extend the tightening to six consecutive weeks. Distillate fuel stocks were up just slightly by 37 million gallons. Gasoline demand was flat on the week after being up 6% week prior.
  • Ethanol production pulled back to 301 million gallons produced on the week- down 10 million gallons. It was also the lowest volume in 2 ½ months. It is expected 101.4 million bushels of corn were used in the process. With flat gasoline consumption and slightly lower ethanol production- ethanol stocks pulled back just slightly.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 186.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, a new monthly record for February and above the most bullish pre-report estimate. Soybean oil use in February of 2,027 million pounds was also a new record for the month.
  • US export sales last week were all within expectations but showed weekly increases for corn and soybean meal with weekly decreases for soybeans, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats. Corn was on the higher end of expectations with soybeans on the lower end.
  • Weekly US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed last week. Everything was within expectations but corn was on the high side of expectations while wheats were on the low side.
  • USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, to 55% good/excellent, TX up 2% to 46% good to excellent; OK ratings feel four points to 61% good to excellent while CO rose 9% to 65% good to excellent.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Crop market continues general fall
  • Added trade support?
  • USDA Ag Outlook Forum bearish
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben track falling crop prices and where they might be headed.
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.12 at $4.20
  • December 2024 corn down $.08 $4.62
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.08 at $11.85
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.09 at $11.59
  • March soybean oil down 1.45 cents at 45.99 cents/lb.
  • March soybean meal up $3.50 at $350.00/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.27 at $5.66
  • July 2024 wheat down $.29 at $5.66
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $.86 at $77.97/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • Two separate measures of inflation came in hotter than anticipated. The Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1% year over year vs expectations of 2.9%. Similarly, the Producer Price Index came in at 0.9% month over month vs expectations of 0.1% increase and -0.1% in January.
  • Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was down 2.3% for Chicago Wheats, up 2.1% for corn and up 1.4% for soybeans.
  • Managed money traders continue to sell Chicago corn and soybean contracts. The net short for corn increased 16,597 contracts which took them over the philosophical threshold of 300,000 contracts. The record was set in April 2019 at just over 322,000 contracts. Managed money was also a seller of Chicago soybeans by 4,200 contracts to 134,500 contracts. The record for soybeans was May 2019 at just under 190,000 contracts.
  • Crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve increased 505 million gallons for the week leaving them 7% below last year. Gasoline stocks declined 153 million gallons but 2% higher than this same week last year. Distillate stocks were down 80 million gallons and are 5% higher than last year. West Texas Intermediate Oil prices are creeping back up to $80 per barrel after reaching the low $70 range in early February.
  • Ethanol production increased again this week to 318 million gallons. Corn used for ethanol production exceed the same period last year by 97 million bushels. Ethanol stocks increased 43 million gallons.
  • The National Oilseed Processors Association reported soybean crush numbers that disappointed the market. Soybean crush for January came in at 185.8 million bushels- four million less than the trade had anticipated, although still a January monthly record. Even though soybean crush was lower, soybean oil stocks also grew and were above all expectations implying January soybean oil use was rather bearish.
  • At USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the agency released their first balance sheets for 2024/25 marketing year. The numbers were bearish to new crop supplies but not as bearish as many in the industry were anticipating.
  • US grain and oilseed export sales were mixed last week. For corn- export sales of 51.4 million bushels were a 9-week high while soybean sales of 13.0 million bushels and wheat sales of 12.8 million bushels were both on the low end of expectations. There were net cancelations of grain sorghum sales amounting to 100,000 bushels for the current year and cancelations of all 2.4 million bushels of 2024/25 sales. There are no grain sorghum commitments for next year at this point after reaching 7.5 million bushels a few weeks ago.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Penciling out profit
  • South American production
  • South American second crop planting
  • Managing production cost
  • Corn acreage to fall
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben look at falling crop prices across the board and what it’ll take to stabilize.

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  • March 2024 corn down $0.05 at $4.40
  • December 2024 corn down $.01 $4.74
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.29 at $11.94
  •  November 2024 soybeans down $.17 at $11.80
  • March soybean oil down 2.61 cents at 45.55 cents/lb
    – March soybean meal down $1.50 at $354.30/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat down $.06 at $5.93
  • July 2024 wheat down $.03 at $6.09
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.13 at $76.78/barrel

Weekly Highlights

  • US Gross Domestic Product grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023- down from the 4.9% in the third quarter but well above the 2% growth expected. Taking out the sharp recovery after the pandemic in 2020. The 3rd and 4th quarters are the strongest two quarters back-to-back since 2014.
  • Core Inflation at 0.2 month over month was right inline with expectations and core inflation year over year of 2.6% was as expected.
  • The housing market continues to run hot- with New home sales at 664,000 up from last month and expectations and pending home sales up to a huge number of 8.3% in December- the largest number since June 2020.
  • It was another fairly risky week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased across the board for Chicago wheat (2.7%), Corn (5.7%), soybeans (6.5%), soybean oil (3.7%), soybean meal (3.4%), cotton (10.7%), and rough rice (0.4%).
  • Producers and Merchants increased their net positions of corn adding to the small net long while also adding net positions of soybeans shrinking their small net short. Producers and Merchants sold off net wheat contracts adding to the net short in Chicago wheat.
  • Managed money traders sold off another 4,743 contracts of Chicago corn while selling 15,045 contracts of soybeans to increase the net short there as well. Managed accounts added 26,518 contracts of cotton futures to take the small net short into a net long.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down another 388 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 206 million gallons on a 5% week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • As expected, US ethanol production pulled back to 240 million gallons- down from 310 million gallons the week prior due to the cold snap in the US. Even with the drastic drop in ethanol production-ethanol stocks increased due to the drop in gasoline demand and blending.
  • Exports sales were lower this week nearly across the board and bearish for soybeans. Only SRW wheat posted week over week gains.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections for the week were neutral for corn and soybeans, while bearish for wheats and grain sorghum. Corn, HRW and HRS wheats were the only commodities up week over week.

Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.

This Week’s Topics:

  • Market recap
  • Consumer sentiment at two-year high
  • Oilseed outlook
  • Managed money profit taking
  • Managing when to sell
  • Record December soybean crush
  • Reports to watch

This week Will and Ben discuss marketing crops around profit taking

Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):

  •  March 2024 corn down $0.02 at $4.45
  • December 2024 corn down $.06 $4.75
  • March 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $12.23
  • November 2024 soybeans down $.04 at $11.97
  • March soybean oil down 2.19 cents at 48.16 cents/lb
  • March soybean meal down $7.50 at $355.80/short ton
  • March 2024 wheat flat at $5.96
  • July 2024 wheat down $.07 at $6.12
  • March WTI Crude Oil up $2.02 at $74.67/barrel

Weekly Highlights 

  • The December National Oilseed Processors Report showed their members crushed a record 195.3 million bushels of soybeans in December- up from 189 in November and 177.5 million last December. Cumulative soybean crush is running 40 million bushels of last years pace with USDA expected an 88-million-bushel year over year increase.
  • The US economy continues to show resistance. The Home Builder Confidence Index reported a reading of 44 increased from 39 in December and analysist expectations of 39. This signal that while contracting its not contracting as fast. Lower mortgage rates boosted confidence.
  • Consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level since July 2021 reflecting optimism regarding slowing inflation and rising incomes.
  • The US labor market remains tight as jobless claims fall under 200,000 and lowest level in 16 months. Employers may be adding fewer workers but they are holding on to the ones they have and paying higher wages.
  • It was a fairly risk on week for US commodities. Open interest positions increased for Chicago wheat (5.7%), Corn (8.1%), soybeans (4.9%), soybean oil (5.6%), soybean meal (6.2%), and cotton (2.7%) while rough rice fell (2.1%).
  • Producers and merchants increased their futures and options positions of Chicago corn more than 25,000 contracts with managed money increasing their net short position 29,819 contracts. The managed money net short for corn is quickly reaching a resistance level close to the largest net short in 15 years.
  • Managed money for soybeans also increased the net short 45.5 thousand contracts.
  • US crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve were down 105 million gallons while gasoline stocks increased 125 million gallons on a slight week over week reduction in gasoline demand.
  • US ethanol production pulled back to 310 million gallons but well above the 296 million gallons last year. Ethanol stocks have built to a 10 year high. The cold weather will likely slow US ethanol production over the next several weeks. Higher natural gas prices and lower ethanol prices are cutting into ethanol plant margins.
  • Export sales were bullish for corn and wheat last week while neutral for beans and grain sorghum. Sales were higher week over week across the board.
  • Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were rather neutral. Corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum were all down week over week, while total wheats were slightly higher.
  • Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed as of January 1 report showed all cattle on feed at 102.1% of last year.