Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.
This Week’s Topics:
- Market recap
- U.S. harvest overview
- U.S. wheat planting
- Ukraine production estimate up
- The Fed holds interest rates steady… but
- Reports to watch
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
- December 2023 corn up $.10 at $4.81
- November soybeans down $.19 at $12.97
- October soybean oil down 3.64 cents at 58.75 cents/lb
- October soybean meal up $1.60 at $392.00/short ton
- December 2023 wheat down $.02 at $5.89
- July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.43
- September WTI Crude Oil up $0.36 at $89.62/barrelWeekly Highlights
- US energy stocks dropped across the board this week: crude oil (-90 million gallons), gasoline (35 million gallons), and distillate supplies (-120 million gallons).
- Ethanol production dropped 17 million gallons to 288 million gallons on the week- the lowest volume in nearly 5 months.
- The Federal Reserve kept short term rates at a range between 5.25-5.5 during their September meeting.
- It was a disappointing week for US ag export sales. Corn and wheats were on the low end of trade expectations while soybean sales were below the most bearish estimate. The deficit for export sales is growing fast.
- Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up again this week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheats saw increases. Rough rice and soybean oil were down.
- Similar to last week, producers and merchants were active buyers of Chicago corn on the week decreasing their net short position of futures and options by nearly 42% after 42% the week before. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by nearly 10,000 positions. For soybeans, producers and merchants sold off 17.6% of their net long position with money managers also shedding 28,000 positions.
- Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all US cattle on feed as of September 1 at 11.094 million head, or 97.8% of last year. The estimate was just above the average trade estimate of 97.7%. August placements were higher while marketings were lower.
- US agricultural export inspections were up week over week for soybeans and wheat, but down for corn and grain sorghum. All were within trade expectations.
- US corn harvest is now 15% complete with corn crop conditions showing some slight improvement as combines roll along. While it is unlikely that precipitation is having an impact on crop conditions at this point in the season- yield monitors (or reports from monitors) might. Illinois and Iowa both saw noticeable increases.
- US soybean harvest is now 12% complete up 7% week over week. Conditions declining only slightly.
- 26% of the Winter wheat crop has been planted so far- slightly behind last years pace and the average pace. Plantings are being the most in the eastern corn belt due to slow fall harvest. This is where most of the soft red winter wheat is planted.