Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.
This Weeks Topics:
- Market recap
- USDA WASDE review
- Tightness in soybean market
- Soybean crush down
- Harvest picks up
- Reports to watch
Market recap (changes on week as of Monday’s close):
• December 2023 corn down $.14 at $4.71
• November soybeans down $.53 at $13.16
• October soybean oil up 1.05 cents at 62.39 cents/lb
• October soybean meal down $15.60 at $390.40/short ton
• December 2023 wheat up $.07 at $5.91
• July 2024 wheat up $.03 at $6.40
• September WTI Crude Oil up $3.41 at $89.28/barrel
Weekly highlights:
• US energy stocks were up for crude oil (166 mil. gal.), gasoline (190 mil. gal.) and distillate fuel (165 mil. gal) after weekly gasoline demand fell hard, down 11% week over week.
• Ethanol production picked up 7 million gallons week over week to settle back over 300 million gallons of weekly production at 305 million gallons. Ethanol stocks decreased signaling rather strong ethanol exports.
• The September USDA Supply and Demand report was rather neutral for domestic balance accounts. 2023/24 corn stocks increased on higher acreage stocks more than offsetting a 1.3 bu/acre reduction in yield and smaller beginning stocks increasing ending stocks 19 million bushels. Soybean stocks for 2023/24 continue to tighten down another 25 million bushels this month.
• The first week of the 2023/24 marketing year showed solid weekly sales volumes, but early sales were such that most commodities are starting with an annual deficit. Corn (-6%), Bean (-3%), and all wheats (-3%).
• The National Oilseed Processors Association announced their members crushed 161.5 million bushels of soybeans in August- down from 173.3 in July and 165.5 last August.
• Open interest positions of Chicago commodities were mostly up on the week. Corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil and wheats saw increases.
• Producers and merchants were active buyers on the week with their net short position of futures and options shrinking by nearly 42%. Conversely, managed money traders were net sellers increasing their net short by almost 44%.
• US Ag Export inspections were mixed with corn and soybeans up week over week with grain sorghum and wheat down. For corn, this was the largest weekly volume since early July.
• US corn harvest is now 9% complete with corn crop conditions deteriorating further.
• US soybean harvest is now 5% complete with conditions declining only slight.