Special to the Fruit, Vegetable, & Specialty Crop News by Guilherme Signorini | The Ohio State University, connect with Guil here. 

Early this year, the United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) released the 2024 annual production estimates for noncitrus fruits. The document series reports acreage, production, and value for 21 fruit crops of national importance. In its May 2025 edition, the document highlights a 2 percent increase in bearing acreage over all analyzed crops but a 2.8 percent production reduction in fresh equivalent amounts compared to a year ago. From a broader time horizon perspective, the USDA/NASS report feeds a long-lasting challenge and yet potentially transformative scenario for the U.S. fruit sector.

Putting in context, shrinking acreage, reducing production, and decreasing value persist as trends for numerous fruit crops grown in traditional regions at the same time that the U.S. deepens its reliance on fresh fruit and produce imports. While these facts combined imply competitivity loss over time, they also signal opportunities that could open doors for innovation, particularly among small-scale and regional producers who are often overlooked in national surveys. Production challenges in traditional regions aligned with trade tariffs recently imposed on fruit-exporting countries create space for local value chains to thrive amid evolving consumer preferences.

Figure 1 summarizes the aggregate bearing acreage and production in fresh equivalent tons in the last ten years, 2015-2024. Acreage dedicated to the 21 most expressive fruit crops in the country declined 9 percent between 2015 and 2024, from 2.1 million to 1.9 million acres. Utilized production followed a similar trend, falling 13 percent in the 10-year horizon and settling at 15.9 million fresh equivalent tons in 2024. Strawberries and blueberries are two of the very few surveyed crops that deviate from the negative trend due to improved production practices and cultivar selection. The U.S. production of strawberries was estimated at 1.6 million tons in 2024, cultivated in approximately 61,000 acres. The latter quantity and bearing acreage represent 5 percent increases versus 2015, estimated at 1.5 million tons and 58,000 acres, respectively. Blueberries acreage was estimated at 124,000 acres in 2024 — a 9 percent increase against 2015 — producing 440,000 tons, roughly 33 percent above the 2015 tonnage.

Figure 1. Annual bearing acreage and utilized production of 21 fruit crops in the U.S.

Source: Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts, USDA/NASS. Multiple editions.

The USDA/NASS also reports on the value of utilized fresh fruit production. The 10-year horizon analysis suggests an increase in nominal value between 2015 and 2024, but a decline after adjusting for inflation. The latest edition of the report estimates the 21-crop aggregate production in 2024 at $18.9 billion, 4.7 percent above the value recorded in 2023. However, when the annual amounts are adjusted for inflation, the utilized production of fresh fruit loses about 14 percent of value. In other words, the loss of monetary value imposed by inflation between 2015 and 2024 overcomes the aggregate gains in production value, worsening the loss of farmland to development and acreage substitution to grain crops, as observed in midwestern states recently.

The U.S. apple industry is the most affected sub-sector with a real value loss of 35 percent in the 10-year period. Grapes come second with real utilized production value 21 percent lower in 2024 compared to 2015, closing the series at $6.1 billion. Strawberries and blueberries, once again, had real production value growth of 35% and 4% between 2015 and 2024. Figure 2 summarizes the deflated value of utilized production over time.

Figure 2: Utilized production value, adjusted for inflation (base year 2024).

Source: From the authors. Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts, USDA/NASS. Multiple editions.

USDA/NASS analysts recognize that the statistical methodology to arrive at annual estimates is not free of data collection challenges. The method departs from grower disposition surveys, which are subject to sampling variability and non-sampling errors. Furthermore, the USDA methodology changed considerably in 2016 following cost-restructuring projects. Since then, states of secondary importance for certain fruit crops were excluded from the analysis. Emphasis has been given to California, Florida, Washington, Oregon, and Georgia, but the number of fruit growers and states surveyed varies depending on the crop. This focus inherently sidelines small-scale producers, whose operations — often regional and diversified — fall outside the scope of these national aggregates. Yet, this exclusion highlights a silver lining: these producers are less tethered to the vulnerabilities of large-scale, export-oriented chains and potentially more agile in responding to market and policy shifts.

Drawing parallels to recent disruptions in agricultural R&D funding, where funding freezes may trigger opportunities for recalibration of innovation and investment priorities, the U.S. fruit sector experiences a similar transformative context. On one hand, the declining global competitiveness of representative fruit crops, rising labor costs, and shrinking margins upend conventional business models. On the other, new consumer trends toward principles-based attributes, locavorism, and recently imposed trade tariffs over imported fruit generate opportunities and invite producers to pivot toward resilient and local chains. And this is all happening now, simultaneously and unprecedentedly.

Disruptions in international and traditional fruit value chains, driven by shifts in global trade, labor, and immigration policies, present unprecedented opportunities for regional fruit chains. Small-scale producers, consistently excluded from USDA/NASS estimates, can seize this transformative moment to forge value-adding partnerships, collaborate on direct-to-consumer models, and cater to communities craving locally produced, sustainable options. By embracing these changes, small-scale fruit producers in secondary states may position themselves as vital alternatives to fresh produce sources, fostering a more inclusive and dynamic U.S. fruit production landscape. This strategic shift could ultimately enhance food security, community ties, and economic vitality at the grassroots level without depending on substantial amounts of government support.