This article was written by Dr. Aaron Wilson, OSU Extension, Ag Weather and Climate Field Specialist
Fig. 1. U.S. Drought Monitor depiction for Ohio as of October 22, 2024.
Dry conditions have plagued Ohioans throughout the growing season this year, with another below average week of precipitation this past week. Since the remnants of Hurricane Helene moved through in late September, ample precipitation has been hard to come by. Several cities are experiencing one of their driest Octobers on record, including Cincinnati and Mansfield (2nd driest), Dayton (3rd driest), and Athens and Columbus (4th driest). Many of these locations have picked up less than three-tenths of an inch. Warmer than average temperatures this week have also notched the drought stress back up, with numerous reports of field fires in west central and northwest Ohio. Certainly, where drought conditions have persisted the longest in southeast Ohio, crop yields are generally below average, pastures have been slow to recover, and producers are still hauling water. As of October 22, 2024, the US Drought Monitor still shows about 8% of the state in D4 – exceptional drought with about 65% of the state still experiencing drought conditions (D1-D4).
If you are continuing to experience drought impacts or to document improvements, you can view and/or submit local reports at the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports page. For a more detailed look at conditions and resources, visit our Drought Response Page or for the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Fig. 2. Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8pm Monday October 28 – 7pm Monday November 5, 2024.
Weather Forecast – Again we are expecting a big warming trend early this week, followed by an increasing chance of Halloween rain and a weekend cool down. High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday, with strong southerly wind gusts and high temperatures running in the mid 70s to low 80s. With gusty winds and low humidity, fire risk will be elevated. A few daily record highs are at stake as well. A cold front will push through the region on Thursday. Although much heavier rain is expected across the central states, a solid line of showers and storms will drop 0.25-0.50 inches of rain. After brief drying conditions on Saturday, another system could bring rainn showers back into Ohio for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be much colder over the weekend, with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.25-0.75” of rain this week (Figure 2).
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show that temperatures are likely to jump back above average with a robust signal toward wetter than average conditions as well (Figure 3). This is not a pattern we have seen in a while but hopefully represents a step toward long-term drought and soil moisture recovery for the area. Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 56-60°F, a low-temperature range of 38-41°F, and weekly total precipitation of 0.55-0.80”.
Fig. 3. Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for November 5 – 11, 2024, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.