Brownfield’s Weekly Commodity update featuring former OSU Extension Ag Economist Ben Brown.
This Week’s Topics:
- Market recap
- Soybean market continues to find support
- Potential acreage shifts
- Planting discussion
- Fed to meet, interest rates in balance
- Reports to watch
U.S. corn acreage could come in higher than expected
Market recap (Changes on week as of Monday’s close):
– May 2024 corn down $0.04 at $4.36
– December 2024 corn down $.02 at $4.70
– May 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.87
– November 2024 soybeans up $.07 at $11.80
– May soybean oil up 2.11 cents at 48.70 cents/lb
– May soybean meal down $6.20 at $331.90/short ton
– May 2024 wheat down $.04 at $5.42
– July 2024 wheat down $.02 at $5.57
– May WTI Crude Oil up $4.46 at $81.60/barrel
Weekly Highlights
- Initial jobless claims last week of 209,000 were down from expectations of 218,000 and 210,000 the week prior.
- The Producer Price Index jumped 0.6% in February- the largest monthly gain since last August. This was above expectations of 0.3% rise in PPI.
- Weekly CTFC data showed that open interest in Chicago Futures and Options was up across the board for the second consecutive week. Chicago Wheats (1.7%), corn (2.4%) and beans (2.6%).
- Managed money traders increased their net short of Chicago Wheats 7,992 contracts while also decreasing their large net short of Chicago Corn 40,867 contracts and Chicago soybeans 16,862 contracts. Net gains for corn and soybean oil were much larger than expected by daily trade estimate, with soybeans close, while Chicago wheat more negative than expected.
- US Crude oil stocks decreased for the first time in seven weeks- falling just slightly by 65 million gallons. Gasoline stocks fell much further- down 238 million gallons to extend the tightening to six consecutive weeks. Distillate fuel stocks were up just slightly by 37 million gallons. Gasoline demand was flat on the week after being up 6% week prior.
- Ethanol production pulled back to 301 million gallons produced on the week- down 10 million gallons. It was also the lowest volume in 2 ½ months. It is expected 101.4 million bushels of corn were used in the process. With flat gasoline consumption and slightly lower ethanol production- ethanol stocks pulled back just slightly.
- The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 186.2 million bushels of soybeans in February, a new monthly record for February and above the most bullish pre-report estimate. Soybean oil use in February of 2,027 million pounds was also a new record for the month.
- US export sales last week were all within expectations but showed weekly increases for corn and soybean meal with weekly decreases for soybeans, soybean oil, grain sorghum, and wheats. Corn was on the higher end of expectations with soybeans on the lower end.
- Weekly US grain and oilseed export inspections were mixed last week. Everything was within expectations but corn was on the high side of expectations while wheats were on the low side.
- USDA reported a two-point increase in Kansas winter wheat ratings this week, to 55% good/excellent, TX up 2% to 46% good to excellent; OK ratings feel four points to 61% good to excellent while CO rose 9% to 65% good to excellent.