by: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR – Tuscarawas County
The United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) released its Feed Outlook on November 12, 2021. The full report is available here: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/102543/fds-21k.pdf?v=9667.4. This USDA-ERS report examines production, use, and prices of corn, wheat, oats, barley, and sorghum. Much of the analysis is based on the November 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1121.pdf). This article will highlight the domestic production, utilization, and pricing of corn.
Yield
For the 2020/2021 marketing year, corn production has increased to a projected record yield of 177 bushels per acre. The current record, 176.6 bushels per acre, was set in the 2017/2018 marketing year. The chart below represents U.S. corn production from 1998 to the 2021 forecast.
This record corn production forecast comes despite expected lower yields in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. These reduced yields are offset by higher expected production in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. The figure below represents corn production from 1998 to present for 12 States.
Utilization
Corn uses are classified into four areas: ethanol, exports, feed, and other. The November Feed Outlook forecasts growth in each of these areas, as displayed in the figure below.
Anticipated increases in corn use have reduced the corn ending stocks. The season average corn price is $5.45 per bushel for the 2021/2022 marketing year. Compared to the 2020/2021 marketing year average price of $4.52 per bushel, this represents a significant increase.
Summary
Corn yields, prices, and utilization are expected to be strong. With increasing input costs, farmers are encouraged to consult their Extension Educator and these OSU Extension resources when developing a cropping plan for the 2022 growing season:
- Ohio Agronomy Guide (Contact your local Extension office)
- Tri-State Fertilizer Bulletin (https://go.osu.edu/tristatefertilizerrecommendationpublication)
- Production Budgets (https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management/enterprise-budgets#2022)
- Crop Enterprise Analysis and Benchmark Report (https://farmprofitability.osu.edu/sites/fprofit/files/imce/2020%20Crop%20Summary%20FINAL.pdf)
Reference
USDA ERS Feed Outlook, November 2021, https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/102543/fds-21k.pdf?v=9667.4