by: Barry Ward. Leader Production Business Management- The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences, Ohio State University Extension
Farmland prices have strengthened in recent months and there are a number of key fundamentals that will likely continue to support land values in the near term. High crop prices and margins along with last year’s COVID-19 related government payments and continued low interest rates have all contributed to stronger land markets. Higher production costs and recent minor decreases in crop prices may decrease profit margins this next year and take some strength out of the market but farmland will likely continue to see increases in value through the end of this year and into the next year. Similar factors have impacted cash rental markets in Ohio and will likely continue to pressure rental rates higher in the near term.
Recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) August Land Values 2021 Summary shows Ohio Farm Real Estate increasing 3.9% from 2020 to an average of $6,600 per acre in 2021. Ohio Cropland (bare cropland) showed an increase of 5.3% from 2020 to 2021. Average Cropland value is $6,800 per acre in 2021 according to this survey. Pastureland value in Ohio increased 2.1% to $3,440 per acre in 2021. Average cash rents in Ohio increased 2.6% in 2021 to $160 per acre according to this survey. The National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) also summarizes average cash rental rates by county available through Ohio NASS: www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Ohio/Publications/County_Estimates/2021/OH_2021_cashrent_CE.pdf
Each year, Ohio State University Extension (The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences) conducts an Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey. The Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents study was conducted from January through April in 2021. The opinion-based study surveyed professionals with a knowledge of Ohio’s cropland values and rental rates. Professionals surveyed were rural appraisers, agricultural lenders, professional farm managers, ag business professionals, OSU Extension educators, farmers, landowners, and Farm Service Agency personnel.
Ohio cropland varies significantly in its production capabilities and, consequently, cropland values and cash rents vary widely throughout the state. Generally, western Ohio cropland values and cash rents differ from much of southern and eastern Ohio cropland values and cash rents. The primary factors affecting these values and rents are land productivity and potential crop return, and the variability of those crop returns. Soils, fertility, and drainage/irrigation capabilities are primary factors that most influence land productivity, crop return and variability of those crop returns.
Other factors impacting land values and cash rents may include field size and shape, field accessibility, market access, local market prices, field perimeter characteristics and potential for wildlife damage, buildings and grain storage, previous tillage system and crops, tolerant/resistant weed populations, USDA Program Yields, population density, and competition for cropland in a region. Factors specific to cash rental rates may include services provided by the operator and specific conditions of the lease.
According to the Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey, cropland values in western Ohio are expected to increase in 2021 by 3.8 to 5.3 percent from 2020 to 2021 depending on the region and land class. Cash rents are expected to increase from 3.6 to 3.9 percent depending on the region and land class. For the complete survey research summary go to: https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management-tools/farm-management-publications/cash-rents
This survey and the results are reflective of the thoughts of survey participants in early 2021. Recent farmland sales would lead us to believe that farmland value has likely increased more than the 3.8 to 5.3 percent that the summary indicates for 2021. Continued high crop prices along with relatively strong predicted yields throughout much of Ohio have lent more strength to farmland markets in Ohio.
Others survey results in the eastern Corn Belt may be useful in gauging the magnitude of Ohio farmland value change thus far in 2021. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (7th Fed District) surveys ag lenders in their districts each quarter. (The 7th Fed District includes parts of Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and all of Iowa.) Their survey in July showed the value of good farmland in their district had increased by 14 percent from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021. The mid-year survey conducted by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers of their members revealed an increase of 20% in farmland values from the beginning of 2021. While Ohio is not Illinois nor does Ohio sit in the 7th Fed District, these surveys may give some guidance on the level of change in farmland values in Ohio in 2021.