Over the last two weeks, a more active pattern has brought numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Buckeye State. Many areas, from west central to southeast Ohio have received 2 inches of rain or more, with pockets of 4-6 inches across western Franklin, Fairfield, and Perry Counties. This has resulted in a decline in drought areas from 78% to 33% as of Thursday, June 22, 2023 (US Drought Monitor), leading to some improvement in crop conditions. However, large portions of southwest, northwest, and northeast Ohio have received less than normal precipitation over this period (Figure 1), intensifying drought conditions across these areas. Our CFAES Rapid Response Team continues to manage the early drought response resource site and encourages readers to continue to submit observations and impacts for your location by visiting https://go.osu.edu/drought_cmor.
Forecast
An upper-level low-pressure system is sliding east across the lower Great Lakes with showers and isolated storms on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain cool on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 60s. Tranquil weather will return for Wednesday with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s across the state. A warming trend will continue for Thursday through Sunday, with highs generally in the 80s, pushing 90°F across the south. With warmer temperatures and increased humidity, isolated showers and storms are also possible throughout this period. The current forecast shows 0.25-0.5” is expected this week across northern counties, with totals over 1” near the Ohio River.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 Day Outlook and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center indicate that probabilities for temperatures and precipitation are leaning above average for the period July 3 – 9, 2023 (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 83-86°F, a low-temperature range of 62-66°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.85-1.15 inches.
