NOAA

Another Unpredictable Winter Ahead???

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A big thanks to Les Ober, Extension Educator ANR, Geauga County OSU Extension, for this article.  This is a hot-off-the-press refresh (newer outlooks and forecasts!) from a piece that was just recently published in a couple other outlets.  

What do snowflakes and weather systems have in common?  Other than the obvious!  Snowflakes never duplicate themselves, and each has a unique pattern.  It is beginning to look like the same is true for winter weather in the eastern United States.  The weather for the next two months will play a major role in determining the outcome of the 2026 maple season.  Because of rapidly moving weather systems, there is no longer an average winter. According to OSU Climatologist Dr Aaron Wilson, we are in for a pattern that looks quite similar to last year.  The weather pattern over the Pacific is going to drive warm weather into the central part of the country.  That warm air will then push northward creating a bulge into Canadian provinces which then drives cold air south.  This chain reaction essentially creates a cold air outbreak into the Northern US.  Too complicate things even more, La Nina is weakening and there is a chance of El Nino taking its place. This results in a lot of variability and possibly even extreme weather.  This winter could be more of a roller coaster than last.

If you live in one of the Great Lake snow belt regions, this system is likely to result in snow.  Regions like Western New York and Eastern Lake Ontario can almost always expect large volumes of snow when this happens.  As for the Lake Erie snow belt, it depends on wind velocity, wind direction, and lake temperature.  This year, Lake Erie is warmer than normal for this time of year.  As a result, we have already seen significant Lake Effect rain and snow across Ohio.  Northeast Ohio had up to 6 inches of rain in the third week of October and 12 inches of snow in the snow belt at the end of November.

If you look at the NOAA 3-month outlook maps, it appears that we are headed for another mild winter.  Is it time to get out the tappers and head for the woods?  The Lake Effect snow we experienced in November is already reappearing here in early December.  The Great Lakes are still warm, but temperatures are falling with this pulse of polar cold that has invaded.  The monthly outlook for December clearly shows that there has been a shift in the weather forecast, and the first 4 days of December have matched the predictions.

As December fades and January looms, the thought of tapping trees and making some early syrup begins to creep in to mind.  I think you can rule out making December syrup from Northern Ohio up into New England.  That does not mean some individuals will not give it a go, there are always tappers who want to be first to carry new syrup out of the sugarhouse.  What to expect for January?  I am not ready to discuss what might happen as the forecasts are a mixed bag.  If I was betting man, and I am not, I would say we are in for a cold start for January.  This may keep the early tappers out of the woods a little longer, but this is where we hit a fork in the road.  After the New Year, producers in the southern tier: southern Ohio, West Virginia, southern Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana need to get ready to go on a minute’s notice.  The rest of us can sit back and watch the weather unfold.  After years of experience, you will know when the time is right.

I will continue to watch the forecast very closely as we move through the month of December.  The closer we get to the season, the more timely and thus accurate the forecasts will become.

A Little Science behind Maple Sugaring Weather

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Hands down, the number one question that comes up this time of year is “When should I tap?”

Due to the warmest December on record, I have heard a few Ohioans even asking “Should I have tapped in December?”.  When you look back over the years, the trend has been toward earlier tapping dates, but hoping that you can keep taps open for 3+ months is a bit of a stretch.  There is no way that will happen on a gravity system, and you will need more than a little luck even on high vacuum.

The scientific approach to planning involves studying climatological data and developing a plan based on that data. The maps below are long range weather predictions for the next three months. You can clearly see that all indications point to above normal temperatures for the next three months. For sugar makers what does this mean?

To quote a good friend and fellow maple researcher, “when you look at forecasts you need to look at it from the big producer / small producer perspective.”  Because most small producers tap everything at one time, they need to consider the value of a good short-term, 30-day forecast.  In most cases, especially if you are on a gravity system, you need to find the best 30-day window that will allow you to make the most syrup.  Once you tap, you are on the clock and that clock runs out shortly after 30 days.  On the other hand, if you are a large producer or even a medium producer on vacuum, you need to study yearly trends.  Trends will disclose what has happened over the last 3 to 5 years.  What we have seen is a trend to earlier tapping just about every year.  In most cases, early tapping has paid off in Ohio.  A major reason is that newer technology lends itself to pushing the envelope when it comes to tapping.  You have the advantage of running a semi-closed vacuum system utilizing 24/7 operation.  This lengthens your season considerably.

One of the most valuable pieces of data you can use are temperature history graphs for your location.  Weather Underground has some of the best.  They plot the maximum, minimum, and average temperatures.  Plotting the maximum and minimum will give you a good idea on the number of freeze-thaw days to anticipate for a month.  As we all know, freeze-thaw cycles are very important and drive daily sap runs.  You can look at these cycles over a five or even ten year period.  Over time you begin to see how various weather patterns play out.

Keeping in mind these are zip code specific but we are talking at the broad scale of an entire state, here are three February graphs. You can clearly see we started February leaving a warm end to January on two out of the three graphs.  In all the graphs, conditions continued to warm up as February wore on.  In two out of the three, the temps dropped going into March.  This may be a hint for what could happen this year.  2020 and 2022 were almost normal.  In both cases, our records show average to above average production.  2021 was the outlier and production was down for that year as temperatures stayed warm through most of March.  The other two years highlight the fact that starting out February warm does not mean you will march into March warm.

Too much science?  Here is a more common sense approach that prioritizes the size of your operation.  If you are tapping thousands of taps, you must start early to get the job done.  For a moment, think about a huge 50,000-tap operation.  Should they consider tapping right after the first of the year?  Definitely!  One of their strategies is to tap 5,000 taps super early.  This results in the Facebook posts you may have seen bragging about syrup being made over Christmas.  Several big producers in the East did this in December.  Does that mean they tapped everything?  Most likely not.  A large commercial producer hedges their season by tapping some early and the rest over the month of January with everything in the tree and ready by February 1.  Small producers who are setup to boil early can also do this, the only difference is they may start tapping their early running trees shortly after New Year’s but plan to finish out in February.  This keeps fresh taps in the system and prevents you from putting all your eggs in one basket.  The best way to accomplish this is to keep very good records.

That brings us back to our initial question.  When should I tap this year?  All indications are that we are going to have a warmer than normal winter.  If you are in Southern Ohio, you might be tapped already.  North of I-70, you should probably hold back until the end of January.  This is where analyzing the 30-day forecast is critical.  Studying several long-range forecasts a little closer, I noticed that we may have some of the coldest weather of the winter on the last week of January and the first week of February.  While the forecast is showing a warming trend coming off several weeks of genuine cold weather, depending on your situation you may even want to hold off until the first week of February.

Of course, the joker in the deck is the El Nino weather event we are experiencing.  El Nino’s are known for extremes and all it takes is a bend in the jet stream and you could be looking at 10 more days of below average weather.  Once this happens, you usually go right back to the warmer than normal pattern.  In this case, cold weather is your friend.  What we do not want is 10 days straight above normal!

As for my prediction!  I will tell you what kind of season we had in 2024 on the first week in April.  May your sugar season be long and sweet.