By: Eric Richer, Aaron Wilson, Mike Estadt, Garth Ruff
It is no secret that hay producers and pasture managers in Ohio have experienced lower production in the past two years than the previous several years due to significant drought in parts of the state. Similar to row crop production, weather risk can present significant challenges for our livestock producers who produce their own forages and/or graze livestock. Those producers may consider Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) Insurance as part of their risk management strategy. Enrollment in this insurance product closes December 1st each year.
The Basics
PRF is a single-peril (rainfall only) and area-based insurance product. Area-based means that indemnity payments will not be based upon individual producer’s experience, rather, payments will be based upon a grid’s deviation from historically normal rainfall. It covers less than average rainfall levels in a particular grid up to the level of coverage that a farmer selects. Rainfall is measured through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC). A producer will have to make several choices including the coverage level of forage production they wish to insure, the rainfall index months to cover, the productivity level of the field or fields they wish to enroll and the number of acres they wish to insure.
In order to be eligible for coverage, a producer must first have documentation indicating shares and acres that are grazed or used in forage production. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) 578, Report of Acreage, is helpful in determining shares and acres but needs to be used in conjunction with a lease, grazing permit, or ownership records. Farm serial numbers from FSA can be helpful in identifying the grid where your forage or pasture is located. A grid in PRF insurance is approximately 16-17 square miles (depending on location). Here is RMA’s grid locator tool.
Unlike many other crop insurance policies, you only need enroll a portion of your documented acres. For example, if you only want to enroll 10 acres out of 100 total alfalfa acres, you can. Total documented PRF acres will limit your maximum enrollment.
The product then requires you to select at least two but no more than five, 2-month periods in which you want covered. No one month can be selected in more than one period (ex. you must select June-July or July-August; July cannot be selected twice). Finally, these 2-month periods do not need to coincide with normal forage or pasture production months.
After selecting the insurance periods, a producer will need to customize their policy by crop in each grid with a productivity index (PI) ranging from 60% to 150% of the county-based value of production. For example, a pasture may get a lower PI than a highly productive forage alfalfa crop. Lower PI’s translate into lower premiums and protection, and higher PI’s to higher premiums and protection, relatively speaking. Selecting a PI of 100% would assume that you want to insure “normal” production. The county base value per acre is specified in the county actuarial documents for each crop type. That value is established by RMA and is the same for all producers in that county for a given crop type and regardless of individual production history.
Finally, a producer will need to select a coverage level from 70%-90% in 5% increments, like other crop insurance products. Coverage levels can vary by crop (ex. Alfalfa for forage can have different coverage than red clover for forage). The dollar amount of protection is then calculated by multiplying the county base value per acre by the coverage level selected.
An Example
Let’s look at an example of how a beef producer in the hard hit drought area of Eastern Ohio might have benefited from PRF insurance in 2024. This is an example, and your farm may vary. Meeting with a crop insurance provider will give you the most accurate estimate of premium costs and potential indemnity.
First, Selection of your grid. This is the Eastern Ohio Research Station near Belle Valley, Ohio. (Image 1). 
Second, take some time to study the historical indexes of rainfall for this grid. This data can be compared monthly going back to 1948. You have the option to download this to a CSV file if you enjoy using spreadsheets to make the most informed decision. You are looking for the months that are below 100% of normal. For this example, indexes on 5,10-, and 25-years periods were analyzed. The three driest 2-month blocks were July-August (94.63), Jun-Jul (96.72) and Jan-Feb (99.98).
Third, you will now make your coverage levels, months covered, productivity index, and how much of your acreage within the grid you want to insure. (Image 2) For this example, we will select the months of Jan-Feb and Jul-Aug. Allocating 60% of value to the driest months (Jul-Aug) and the remaining 40% to Jan-Feb. Based in this specific location, the maximum percentage of value in any single interval cannot exceed 60%.
Now click the calculate button to see the amount of premium that is owed and what the indemnity for this insurance product would have paid.
In the case of this example. The producer insured his 100-acre pasture at the 90 % coverage level at a productivity factor of 100%. The higher the productivity index and the coverage level, the higher the premium paid by the producer. In this example the premium paid by the producer was $614 for the 100 acres.
If a rainfall index falls below 100 for the two-month index interval block, an indemnity will be triggered. In this example, there was no indemnity for the Jan-Feb window as rainfall index for this unit was 126.8. On the other hand, the Jul-Aug index interval was measured at 42, trigging an indemnity of $1642.
Overall, the PRF insurance product allows for significant customization by crop, grid, productivity index, and coverage level. It is important to remember that it only protects against low rainfall periods, not periods of excess precipitation. PRF adoption (all coverage levels) has grown in Ohio from 71 policies in the first year offered (2016) to 214 policies in 2020 to 622 policies in 2025.
RMA does provide a decision support tool to evaluate historic weather data by grid and month and potential premiums and indemnities. Decision Support Tool. We encourage you to meet with your crop insurance agent to learn more about this product and if it fits your operation. Reminder that enrollment for 2026 forage and grazing acres closes on December 1st, 2025.
A 2026 Weather Outlook from a 10,000-foot view.
NOTE: The following is intended to highlight national climate outlook products. The information in this article is NOT A FORECAST and should not be considered as such when deciding on an individual’s participation in the PRF insurance product.
Predicting the weather more than a few days out comes with a high degree of risk, and using historical observations under certain conditions in the past does not guarantee the same outcomes under similar conditions in the future. However, meteorologists analyze long-term weather patterns to get a sense of what might be expected when similar conditions are present.
As we move into the winter season 2025-26, tropical sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America are cooler than normal. We refer to these conditions as La Niña. This climate pattern, when strongly coupled with the atmosphere typically brings an active storm track across the Ohio Valley during the December-March period. Whether this leads to rain or snow is dependent on whether cold air is in place as systems move through the region. Predicting this impact has a much shorter lead time, on the order of 10-14 days, as a weak or strong jet stream in the Arctic region (referred to as Artic Oscillation) controls the magnitude and extent of cold air spilling into the eastern United States. At the time of this writing, we are predicting our first negative Arctic Oscillation set-up around November 10, 2025, and the Ohio Valley’s first Arctic front with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s and snowflakes in the air. When combined with La Niña, we typically see highly variable winter weather with large swings in temperatures week to week and above normal precipitation. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its 2025-2026 U.S. Winter Outlook and for more information on La Niña, please visit NOAA: National Ocean Service.
Current predictions show a trend toward neutral tropical Pacific conditions by late winter/early spring which offers little guidance on the impact to the overall weather conditions in Ohio beyond winter. However, considering back-to-back extreme to exceptional drought conditions in Ohio (2024 and 2025), first in southeast and then in northwest Ohio, deeper soil moisture is severely lacking across the state. A wetter-than-normal winter would help replenish soil moisture, but if this does not occur this coming winter or spring, then our risk for drought conditions increases once again in the summer of 2026. Overall trends show that even with ample spring rainfall (8th wettest April-July for Ohio in 2025), drought conditions can still follow (driest August on record in 2025), as Ohio experiences more rapid oscillations between extreme wet and dry patterns. Current Climate Prediction Center outlooks for spring, summer, and fall 2026 show the following probabilities:
- Spring 2026: Temperatures and precipitation leaning above normal
- Summer 2026: Temperatures and precipitation leaning above normal
- Fall 2026: Temperatures leaning above normal but no strong signal either direction for precipitation
Finally, it is important to note that these are climate average probabilities (three-month averages) and do not reflect the magnitude for which temperatures or precipitation may be above or below normal. It also does not assume that weather conditions for the three-month period will not vary considerably. For monthly and quarter climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.
References:
Richer, Eric; Estadt, Mike; Wilson, Aaron. “Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (PRF) Insurance Enrollment Closes December 1.” Ohio Ag Manager. Department of Extension, College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences, Ohio State University. November 21, 2023. https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/?s=pasture+range+forage+insurance
“Pasture, Rangeland, Forage Frequently Asked Questions.” United States Department of Agriculture-Risk Management Agency. November 4, 2025. https://www.rma.usda.gov/en/News-Room/Frequently-Asked-Questions/Pasture-Rangeland-Forage
“Summary of Business.” United States Department of Agriculture-Risk Management Agency. https://www.rma.usda.gov/tools-reports/summary-of-business
“NOAA Releases 2025-2026 Winter Outlook” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/