By: Carl Zulauf, Seungki Lee, and David Marrison, Ohio State University, August 2025
2024 crop year payments for corn and soybeans are estimated for ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage – County version) using August 2025 estimates of 2024 crop year prices from USDA, FSA (US Department of Agriculture, Farm Service Agency) (https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/arc-plc/program-data) and estimates of county yields from USDA, RMA (Risk Management Agency) (https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/RIRS/SCOYieldsRevenuesPaymentIndicators.aspx). Legislation requires FSA to give primacy to RMA yields when determining ARC-CO payment, but FSA can also consider other factors when determining ARC-CO county yields.
Our next report will be the final FSA payment rates for 2024 crop year corn and soybeans. They are expected to be released in October 2025. They could differ notably from these estimates. Crop year prices and county yields are not final. Moreover, they currently in a range where small changes can cause large changes in ARC-CO payments. Use these estimated payments with caution.
August 2025 Estimates of 2024 Crop Year Payments:
- ARC-CO: Corn and soybean payments are expected for some Ohio counties. ARC-CO is a revenue program and thus includes yield and price (see two sections below). 2024 Ohio weather was highly variable. County yields were thus variable, making payments variable. Estimates of payment per base acre vary from $0 (42 counties) to $81 (Ross) for corn base and from $0 (18 counties) to $60 (Mercer) for soybean base (see appended maps). These estimates include the 85% payment factor (i.e. 15% payment reduction factor). Also appended are maps of county gross revenue (estimated price times estimated yield) plus estimated ARC-CO pay rate per base acre. They illustrate that ARC-CO payments are countercyclical to low market revenue. Higher revenue/yields are almost always preferred to an ARC-CO payment. Note, some counties have irrigated and non-irrigated base acres. Payment estimates are for non-irrigated base since dryland production is far more common in Ohio. ARC-CO payments for wheat are now final, although they will not be made until October. Only three counties will receive ACR-CO payments per base acre of wheat: Adams ($4.00), Lorain ($13.60), and Scioto ($29.50).
- PLC: No PLC payment is expected for corn and soybeans. Projected US crop year price exceeds the effective reference price: corn ($4.30 vs. $4.01); soybeans ($10.00 vs. $9.26). Announced wheat payment rate is zero: crop year price ($5.52) exceeds effective reference price ($5.50).
Commodity Program Policy Objective:
- ARC-CO provides assistance if a crop’s county market revenue (yield times price) is below 86% of a crop’s county benchmark market revenue for 5 recent crop years.
- PLC provides assistance if a crop’s US market year price is below 100% of the crop’s US effective reference price determined according to the farm bill.
- ARC-IC provides assistance if an ARC-IC farm’s average per acre revenue from all program crops is below 86% of the ARC-IC farm’s per acre benchmark revenue.
Payment Formulas (● = times):
ARC-CO payment rate per base acre = MAX [$0, or 86% times (county benchmark revenue – observed revenue)] ● 85% payment factor. County benchmark revenue = (5-year Olympic average (high and low value removed) of recent US crop year prices ● 5-year Olympic average of recent trend-adjusted county yields). Observed revenue = observed US crop year price ● observed county yield. ARC-CO payment rate is capped at 10% of county benchmark revenue.
PLC payment rate per base acre = MAX [$0, or (US effective reference price – US crop year price) ● FSA farm’s PLC base yield ● 85% payment factor.
