The questions have become a tradition for real Christmas tree growers: How are sales? How are supplies? What about this crazy weather? Are prices going up? Will you run out of trees? The answers rarely change: Looking good … Varies by region, but strong overall … Crazy for sure, but isolated and the industry is stronger than any one event … The answers don’t change much because the real Christmas tree industry is decentralized, with major wholesale growers spanning various regions of the country and because the seven to 12-year growth span required to bring a tree to market means supply can be adjusted by leaving trees in the ground a little longer or harvesting them a littler earlier — whatever a particular season dictates.
But rather than leave the outlook to tradition, guess work, or those without a front-row seat, the Real Christmas Tree Board surveyed 55 wholesale growers of real Christmas trees across the U.S. last month. Combined, the respondents supply an estimated two-thirds of the country’s real Christmas tree market. When paired with the Board’s annual consumer survey, it provides the most accurate forecast of the season possible.
Bottom line: 2022 will look a lot like 2021
“The real Christmas tree industry met demand last year and it will meet demand this year,” said Marsha Gray, Executive Director of the Real Christmas Tree Board. “This is essentially a year without surprises.” “Our annual consumer survey showed that 86% of real Christmas tree buyers said they had no problems finding a place nearby to buy their tree last year,” said Gray. “And 87% told us they found the tree they wanted at the first place they looked.”
“We expect this year to be no different,” she said. “The grower survey tells us demand is healthy. Retailers see steady consumer interest in real Christmas trees and right now supply is pretty well matched to that interest. The majority – 67% of the wholesalers we talked to – said they expect to sell all the trees they plan to harvest this year. In terms of volume, more than half – 55% – said they expect to sell about the same amount of real Christmas trees as they did last year. The balance was divided: Some expect to sell more, some less.” 2
Many of the Christmas Tree Growers agrees input costs are up for everyone. All respondents estimate their input costs have increased compared to last year. The most frequently cited range of increase was 11% to 15% (36% of respondents), but more than a quarter (27%) put it even higher, at 16% to 20% compared to last year’s input costs. Another quarter (25%) said such costs have gone up as much as 10% year-over-year. And 10% of respondents put it higher still, with their year-over-year estimated increase coming in at more than 21%. The majority of growers (71%) cited a likely wholesale price increase of 5% to 15% compared to last year.
There are no plot twists in the real Christmas tree story this year, Just the steady hand of professional growers bringing joy to consumers. While our grower survey tells us wholesale prices are likely to be a bit higher for real Christmas trees this year, our consumer survey tells us people expected as much. The good news is fans of real Christmas trees say they believe the trees are worth the price and they are willing to pay more this year if necessary to get one – and that’s not a surprise either.
Source: RealChristmasTreeBoard.com