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Authors: Vinayak S. Shedekar, The Ohio State University and Rajveer Dhillon, Central State University

[Article was written for the Ohio Country Journal – Mid-November Issue. Click here to find the published article on OCJ website]

As we wrap up the 2025 harvest season, the two years of drought in a row, keeps me wondering about this question – Which one is worse – the drought or wet weather? In other words, how do crop yields respond to a wet growing season versus a dry or excessively dry growing season? The standard answer from the scientist in me is “it depends”! This curiosity led us to dig a little deeper into some of Ohio’s recent history of wet versus dry weather, and their connection with crop yields.

If you compare the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, they represent wet, dry, and normal weather (precipitation) conditions across Ohio. For example, 2011 brought record spring rains and planting delays, 2012 was marked by one of the worst summer droughts in decades, and 2013 offered relatively normal conditions. The state-level average for corn yields was 153, 120, and 174 bushels per acre, respectively during these years (Figure 1). Compared to a normal year, a drought year had a greater yield penalty (-54 bu/acre) than that during a wet year (-21 bu/acre).

Figure 1. The graph shows monthly progress of wet and dry conditions across Ohio in 2011 (wet year), 2012 (drought year) and 2013 (close to normal year). The severity of dry (D) or wet (W) conditions goes up in the numeric order. The state-level average yield shows a greater sensitivity to dry year than to the wet year. (Data from USDA-NASS and www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/).  

To get a broader picture, we analyzed county-level corn yield and precipitation data from 1991 to 2022 using USDA-NASS and NOAA records. We grouped each year as “normal,” “wet,” or “dry” depending on whether annual rainfall was within, above, or below 30% of the long-term average. On average, corn yields across Ohio were 147 bushels per acre in normal years, 151 in wet years, and 117 in dry years (Figure 2).

Figure 2. A map showing county-level average corn yields across Ohio during 1991-2022, with periods marked by normal, wet, and dry years (Data Sources: USDA-NASS, PRISM).

Third and final stop was to explore the historic crop insurance data through the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA). The Environmental Working Group provides a tool to summarize the data from federal crop insurance programs since 1990s (farm.ewg.org/cropinsurance.php). Between 1990 and 2024, about 70% of all indemnified losses nationwide were due to drought, high temperatures, or excess moisture. Drought and heat alone accounted for 43% of losses (around $90 billion), while excess moisture caused about 25% ($52 billion). These proportions are very similar if we filter out data for the state of Ohio, or neighboring midwestern states.  

In short, both extremes of water — too much or too little — pose major risks to Ohio agriculture. But drought tends to hit corn yields harder than excess rainfall. Thanks to extensive tile drainage, most of Ohio’s cropland is better equipped to handle wet years than dry ones. Management practices such as residue management, no-till, and controlled drainage can help conserve more moisture in soils, and help manage some of the drought-induced risks in your farming operations. For more detailed discussion on this topic, visit www.go.osu.edu/agwater.

This column is provided by the OSU Department of Food, Agricultural and Biological Engineering, OSU Extension, International Program for Water Management in Agriculture, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, and the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences.

Dr. Vinayak Shedekar is the Assistant Professor of Agricultural Water Management and director of the Overholt Drainage Research and Education Program in the OSU Department of Food, Agricultural and Biological Engineering and can be reached at shedekar.1@osu.edu

Dr. Rajveer Dhillon is Research Associate Professor at the Central State University. He can be reached at rdhillon@centralstate.edu