Summary: The objective of this work is to understand the risk-based decision making processes of the public and managers both in preparation for and in response to wildfire. Namely, what motivates the public to prepare their homes and properties to minimize wildfire risk? How do residents in the wildland-urban interface make evacuation decisions during an event? How do managers think about the relative risks and benefits of different strategies for minimizing catastrophic wildfire both prior to and in response to a wildfire event?
One funded project focuses on fire weather-based tools, such as the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), which are used nationwide to support the full range of strategic (pre-fire and prescribed fire planning) and tactical (initial and extended attack) wildland fire management decisions. However, little is known about which of these tools most heavily impact fire management decisions and even less is known about the sensitivity of those tools to input errors. To address this gap, we combine fire modeling with social science to explore the decisions that fire managers make, how fire weather-based tools are used in that process, which sources of error are the most influential for those tools and how various errors sources could impact decision making.
Funding provided by the Joint Fire Sciences Program.
Publications
Rapp, C.E., R.S. Wilson, Factors that contribute to trustworthiness across levels of authority in wildland fire incident management teams, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 73, 2022, 102877, ISSN 2212- 4209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102877.
Rapp, C., R.S. Wilson, E. Toman, and W.M. Jolly. 2021. “Assessing the role of short-term weather forecasts in fire manager tactical decision-making: a choice experiment”. Fire Ecology, 17(1): 1-17.
Rapp, C., R.S. Wilson, E. Toman and E. Rabung. 2020. “Wildfire decision support tools: An exploratory study of use in the United States”. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 29(7): 581-594.
Walpole, H., R.S. Wilson and S. McCaffrey. 2020. “If you love it, let it go: The role of home attachment in delaying evacuation decision making.” Environment, Systems and Decisions, 40(1): 29-40.
McCaffrey, S., R.S. Wilson and A. Konar. 2017. “Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions”. Risk Analysis, 38(7): 1390-1404.
Wilson R.S., Ascher T.J., Toman E. 2012. “The importance of framing for communicating risk and managing forest health.” Journal of Forestry 110, 337-341.
Ascher T.J., Wilson R.S., Toman E. 2012. “The importance of affect and perceived risk in understanding support for fuels management among wildland-urban interface residents.” International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22(3): 267-276.
Wilson, R.S., P.L. Winter, L.A. Maguire, T.J. Ascher. 2010. “Managing wildfire events: Risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers.” Risk Analysis. Vol. 5, no. 31: 805-818.
Wilson, R.S., D.M. Hix, P.C. Goebel, and R.G. Corace III. 2009. “Identifying land manager objectives and alternatives for mixed-pine forest ecosystem management and restoration in eastern Upper Michigan.” Ecological Restoration. Vol. 27, no. 4: 407-416.