Summary: Non-point source nutrient and sediment runoff from upstream agricultural production is impairing coastal ecosystem services across the globe, including the Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, northern Gulf of Mexico and other regions of economic, recreational, and cultural importance. This degradation is projected to worsen with continued climate change, as more intense rains transport more nutrients and sediments downstream with impacts that include reduced water clarity, increased harmful algal blooms, and a loss of high-valued fish stocks. To address these problems many agricultural management practices have been identified that can reduce sediment and nutrient runoff. However, effective design of policies to encourage adoption of best agricultural management practices is limited by a critical knowledge gap concerning human behavioral responses to ecosystem conditions. Using the Maumee River watershed and western Lake Erie as a model ecosystem, this research will quantify the co-evolution between upstream human behavior and downstream ecosystem services through two objectives: (1) model how public attitudes co-evolve with downstream ecosystem conditions and shape support for policies that impact agricultural management practices, and in turn, how farmers respond to these policies and public attitudes to impact downstream ecosystem conditions; and (2) integrate biophysical models of our study region with behavioral models of public policy and farmer decision-making to predict this co-evolution between public policies, farmer behavior and downstream ecosystems under alternative future scenarios, including climate change scenarios.
Additional information about the project can be found in the following farmer survey reports: Farmers, phosphorus and water quality and Farmers, phosphorus and water quality: Part II
Funded by NSF CNH Award No. 1114934
Publications
Kast, J., M. Kalcic, R.S. Wilson, D. Jackson-Smith, N. Breyfogle, and J. Martin. 2021. “Evaluating the Efficacy of Targeting Options for Conservation Practice Adoption on Watershed-Scale Phosphorus Reductions”. Water Research, 201: 117375.
Schwab, E., M. Kalcic, and R.S. Wilson. 2021. “Assessing the accuracy of farmers’ nutrient loss risk perceptions”. Environmental Management, 68(4): 539-552.
Schwab, E., R.S. Wilson and M. Kalcic. 2021. “Exploring the mechanisms behind farmers’ perceptions of nutrient loss risk”. Agriculture and Human Values, 38(3): 839-850.
Zhang, W. R.S. Wilson, E. Burnett, E. Irwin, and J. Martin. 2016. “What Motivates Farmers to Apply Phosphorus at the “Right” Time? Survey evidence from the Western Lake Erie Basin.” Journal of Great Lakes Research, 42(6): 1343-1356.
Wilson, R.S., G. Howard, and E. Burnett. 2014. “Improving nutrient management practices in agriculture: The role of risk-based beliefs in understanding farmers’ attitudes toward taking additional action.” Water Resources Research, 50(8): 6735-6746.