Weather Update: Cool, Dry Weather Continues

This article was originally posted in the CORN newsletter, 2022-34, written by Aaron Wilson.

After making landfall as a destructive Category 4 storm with winds to 155 mph along the southwest coast of Florida last week and another landfall in the Carolinas, the remnants of Hurricane Ian skirted across our far southeastern counties over the weekend with generally light rain and gusty winds (Figure 1). Elsewhere, lake-effect rain showers earlier in the week impacted counties in the northeast, but much of the state was dry. Temperatures have been running 3-10°F below normal for the past 7 days as well. Cool temperatures are limiting impacts from an overall drying trend across much of western and southern Ohio, but this is a good environment to continue drying crops ahead of harvest. The situation should be monitored in the coming weeks though for the potetnial for field and combine fires as the forecast indicates continued dry condtions. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Figure 1). Total precipitation over the period September 27- October 3, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu).

Figure 1). Total precipitation over the period September 27- October 3, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (https://mrcc.purdue.edu).

Forecast
High pressure will keep fair skies and calm winds locked over the state for Tuesday through Thursday. After a chilly start in the 30s on Tuesday morning with scattered frost, temperatures will moderate throughout the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s (north) to mid to upper 70s (south). A series of cold fronts will sweep through late in the week with spotty showers possible on Friday. Cooler air will filter into the state with highs on Friday and Saturday only likely to reach the upper 40s to mid 50s, with overnight lows well down into the low to mid 30s. This raises the possability of some areas of Ohio (e.g., NW and NE) reaching their first fall freeze conditions (temperatures < 32°F); though at this time, upper 20s are not likely. For more informaton on historical fall freeze conditions, check out October Usually Brings Our First Fall Freeze also in this week’s C.O.R.N. Newsletter.

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting less than 0.10 of an inch of precipitation in Ohio this week (Figure 2).

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8pm Monday October 3 – 8pm Monday October 10, 2022.

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 8pm Monday October 3 – 8pm Monday October 10, 2022.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10-day outlook for the period of October 9 – 13, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Centershow temperatures and precipitation are leaning toward below normal levels (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 68-72°F, a low-temperature range of 46-50°F, and average weekly total precipitation of about 0.70 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for October 9 – 13, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook valid for October 9 – 13, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.