Its December 15th and as we ease on into the famed xmas week of insanity and xmas shopping, hanging with family and thinking about the end of 2014 and the new year of 2015 approaching, I always scribble down my predictions for the year ahead. They’re predictions, based on notions, trends, gut thinking, essence in the air of what I’ve seen, what has come to pass and what I foresee as next. Loosely based on science, a bit based on patterns, much of it based on the sheer gut.
Last week I jolted down 10 predictions.
- 5 for Ohio State and the state of technology transfer scene in 2015
- 5 for the Central Ohio startup scene in 2015
Let’s go!
Five, 2015 Predictions for the Ohio State Technology Commercialization Scene
- We Believe.
There is a aura of belief unfolding on campus today. Its safe to say that commercialization has taken root in the university. More people believe in the potential of what they’re working on. We’ll seen even more positive energy toward “we can do it” in terms of ideas to market hustle. Its across the board from the highest pillars of senior leadership to the deans, chairs and faculty and staff. And of course the students, always the first to believe I think, they will continue to impress. - Medical / IT led innovation will continue to dominate.
Startup health is just getting up to speed. 2014 was a big year for mindfulness, wearables, software, data analytics, and more when it comes to health care. 2015 will continue to be very loud on the innovation around health. Between the new Neuromodulation Center to the new James cancer center spinning up, a sea of innovation, opened doors and possibility will follow. Plus digital health is beginning to cross the threshold in adoption in both practice and common placement with medical centers and in administrative and doc acceptance. Add the applicability in terms of next generation compliance/adherence and you find a sea of opportunities. Note many solutions will be more “risk mitigation” orientated. - In the Groove on Process.
2014 was an epic year for commercialization and startup process. The team jelled under new leadership and really pressed into often difficult territory and laid down many processes and norms and procedures on how to do things, how to make things GO. 2015 will see these efforts streamline and get in the groove. Process is a big part of success when it comes to starting, when it comes to doing, when it comes to alignment and more. I see us all in the groove for next, let’s do this! The new Acceleration Award will help many fill in the gap from clinical trials to prototyping, this will compliment general areas of hustle across campus to make, validate, realize and net traction. - Collaboration Frontier.
Bigger and better collaborations are afoot. Thats not always a good thing as they tend to be well, involved… but I see more incubators, more collaborative partners, more groups unifying for what could be, more and more thinking, more people coming to the table, especially as more believe in the effort, and the end game. - New IP Frontiers.
I believe Athletics, Sports Medicine and Arts & Sciences will be new pools of IP frontier. Not to say its where the big deals will be but these areas will not be “unknown” any more in terms of IP. Data Analytics will continue to be in the crosshairs as well but it needs time to nurture. While the demand for Internet of Things is apparently everywhere, I think that area will unfold slowly as well. Some of the best IP opportunities I see are based around areas the university has extensive “frequency”, by flow, opportunity, context, expertise. Also what the market thinks is hot NOW tends to be “oh yeah that, we did that like 5 years ago…” meaning the academics and research folks are further in future than you realize. Like NEXT on campus is likely more Quantum Computing than say IOT, or VR, etc. Not to say its not there, but the fringe of next isn’t mainstream- IOT is going mainstream, in labs, dude we’re working on warp drive (ok maybe not but some amazing stuff, definitely!).
Five, 2015 Predictions for the Central Ohio Startup Scene
- Traction and Exits.
Central Ohio startups formed 3-5 years ago will be more notable, recognizable and piling on the traction front. Some will be exiting. Of course we rarely hear about the startups that tried and died. But I see more talk of traction, more tale of how, the people of Columbus will rally to support and exits, mergers and acquisitions will be afoot. Some of these starts are down right tactical meaning their time for epic glory is coming, provided their ramen will last. - City of Design.
Columbus is booming with agencies. Columbus has always been a “design” town but it will be more known and notable in 2015 as the many more agencies spin up, mid sized ones expand into larger agencies, and the pool of talent coming out of the schools kicks of more doers, believers, thinkers and so on. Columbus is becoming a magnet for hip, interesting, arts, maker, doable, hustle. The frame of “design” is changing as well as it bleeds into any and all biz related the space- software, PR, creative, maker, experience, research, you name it! How this factors into the startup scene? Well more shops crafting and coding meaning more code made here for here. Plus the talent pools and spill overs forming new groups will be continual. - Power Struggle in the Tower of Influence.
As more people believe there are more to be told the message. Of course the message varies and we’ll see that unfold in 2015 as the game of influence. There are new players in town. Even more to come. The battle of influence from everything to how to start to why to start is underway, its been brewing for awhile but the game is getting thicker. We’ll see more events, more conferences, more blogs, more chatter, more well, everything. Its not just for VC tho, from casual players to private equity, just about everyone is eyeing on what they see as next in Columbus Ohio. The long game is definitely apparent. The prize is what’s ahead in 10 years. 2015 will be a good year for opinion and voices on the subject, as the hustler audience doubles so does the demand for worthy content and commentary. So influence will be unfolding on multiple tiers, incubator, state level, life style, funding, making, retail, you name it, there is room for curation, authority and influence. - CASH continues to be tight.
The golden goose of every would be startup is CASH, who can provide it? Well in 2015, cash will be present but it will still be tight. Just because Forbes writes an article on Columbus every other month doesn’t mean the midwest just gave us all a blank amex card. New currency will be passed around from mentorship to space to networking power but CASH will still serve the golden key of survival for many. Which will make our scene hard to grow within, meaning we’ll be talking out our related states and valley partners to help bridge the valley of death every new business must cross- onward to traction! The ideas built on transactions today will SKYROCKET in Columbus and serve as early leaders of the space. The State of Ohio will continue to fuel and encourage the scene as well, and I suspect it will double down in some ways providing more CASH for solid people with ideas that can prove the rainbow of cash on the other side. More people will turn to crowd funding, angels and more cash enabling ideas to get their start as well. The big question is whether or not Columbus finds a way to help the big disrupters cross the gap without big cash- which could happen.. if we reduce the impact of where cash goes. For example the pending tax free zone coming for startups, combined with affordable talent and great ideas and long term players betting on 2025, maybe we can grow that base for the big disrupters. - Foundational Testing.
With CASH continuing to be challenged and or tight, there will be more foundation testing happening- what the heck is that? Its basically a means to piece together the fate of a tech/startup without vesting in it. We’ll see alot of this happening with new incubators spinning up. It follows along with more people believing as well. While CASH is tight, hope is boundless and there will be more support (with the hope of influence) to direct the herd of “potentials” into rivers of foundational testing. This will lead to mixed results. Testing is good, but so is leaping off the cliff and doing. Columbus will split between a sea of doers, often insanely crazy or delusional, and later reflected upon as brilliant, to safety net of validation, which can yield good safe results but at what costs? There is middle ground and we’ll see that play out but get ready for the ride!
Usually I have a few more as well.. like..
- stocks
- tech trends
- startups to watch
but yeah.. we’ll get to that later. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!