The Chilean Constituent Process
Author picture: Felipe Caro-Lopez.
By Felipe Caro-Lopez Graduate Ambassador, John Glenn College of Public Affairs
In September, the third stage of a Chilean constituent process began, with very little enthusiasm among voters. In the words of public policy scholar, Peters, this Constitutional process seems to fall “in the period of the declined interest” of the Agenda Setting. The current process in opinion polls continues to have a strong rejection, both among those who rejected the first proposal and even more among those who approved it. However, there is still a group that has the last word and gives the option to bring this process to a successful conclusion.
If we analyze the latest electoral events of these two processes in figures, we can find a certain level of predictability. Therefore, projecting the vote next December would be on a known basis. The exit plebiscite that enabled this process in 2020 had the participation of 50.95% of the total electoral roll, with a significant victory of option “Yes” to a new constitution with 78.28% due to the social inequality protests that occurred in 2019.
This plebiscite was a voluntary vote, as was the election of the first 155 Conventional Constituents, a process that gave a large majority of more than 2/3 to all the forces of the left, center left, and many outsiders left groups. Nevertheless, after a process marred by polarization and inadequate performance, the proposal of the leftist forces was rejected by 62% of plebiscite voters on September 4, 2022. With a mandatory vote and a participation level greater than 85% of the electoral roll, the rejection was a tremendous blow to the Chilean political class.
After intense negotiations in Congress, a new process has begun with more stages, firewalls, and control locks. The draft of the commission of experts, which was selected based on the electoral strength of the parties in both chambers of Congress (Deputies and Senate), demonstrated an unusual tactical balance of 50-50 against left-wing and right-wing forces.
Consequently, the draft was presented as a proposal signed by all political parties but without leaving any of them happy. However, the council elections on May 7, 2023, radically changed the panorama; The Constituent Councilors were elected where the right-wing and center-right forces achieved absolute majorities well above the supra-majority locks agreed upon in this process. Of 50 Councilors, they achieved 33, enough to modify the text of the experts to their liking, considering that only the most disruptive Chilean Right Party, the Republican Party, managed to keep 22 seats. Adding the percentages obtained by Republicans and the traditional forces of the center-right (Chile Vamos), it achieved 64% support, fitting remarkably close to the percentage of rejection capitalizing on all the votes against the previous process.
Today, the leftist forces are decisively choosing, according to the polls, to reject a proposal and a process that is the opposite of what they pushed for years. However, Flavio Quezada, a left-wing Constitutional expert, warns on his social networks that this project could still be approved.
So far, most new voters for the change from voluntary to mandatory voting (58%) say in surveys that they will reject this proposal. But it is a vote of punishment towards the political class in general since the same readings would hand over the responsibility of a new failure to every actor in the system. But the window of opportunity lies in those same voters, who could be highly in tune with articles and topics that are highly sensitive to them.
The bet is risky, designing a text so that the leftist forces and the Government of Gabriel Boric itself must publicly reject it to begin to create or build those bridges, capitalizing on the terrible image of the government and its forces that are loyal to it. It is possible to repeat the 62%-38% scheme. It is a titanic task in such a brief time of work, but nothing should be taken for granted. There is a real possibility that this proposal will be rejected again; it is the first time in recent history that something like this has happened, which some government parties are already supporting. However, only some things have been said.
The political forces of approval must generate these channels in the remaining stages in September and October, trying to hold firm to its toughest electorate but enthusing and generating genuine expectations of closing the process on the part of the mass of voters who have been incorporated in the last two years. It is not easy, but the sale is still open.