Map of Pacific Ocean
Article from CORN 9-1-2020, Jim Noel, National Weather Service
The cooler than normal blob of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator tends to push the first autumn freeze later than normal in our region. Therefore, there is no indication of an early freeze in September this year. It appears the first freeze for Ohio will not come until October either on schedule or a bit later than normal.
September looks to have the first half start cooler than normal followed by a return to normal temperatures for the second half of the month. Precipitation will be normal or slightly above normal for September. Normal rainfall is currently 1-1.5 inches per two weeks dropping to about an inch per two weeks for the second half of September. Even though we expect rainfall at or slightly above normal in September, there is a great deal of uncertainty due to the tropics and where those systems will travel. So you will want to pay attention to later outlooks at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Rainfall for the first half of September will average 0.50-2.00 inches. The heaviest rains will likely surround the state of Ohio in most directions.
16 day precipitation outlook
October into part of November looks to resume the above-normal temperatures which should create an extended autumn this year. Rainfall remains highly uncertain but it appears near normal is the most likely outcome for October and November as we have some climate models showing above normal and some below normal rainfall.
The early outlook for winter calls for above-normal temperatures the first half and below normal temperatures second half. Precipitation is likely to become above normal with potential influences from the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The overall drier pattern in many but not all places in Ohio this summer appears like it will relax closer to normal in August. The greatest uncertainty with the outlook will center around how the tropical moisture impacts the eastern United States.
The August outlook for temperatures indicates 1-2F above normal but a lot closer to normal than what we have seen this summer with the heat. The last time we have seen this much hot weather was 2015 and 2012. The good news is the worst of the heat for 2020 appears over. What this means is we should see a lot more maximum temperatures in the 80s with some 90s thrown in. Expected minimum temperatures mostly in the 60s to lower 70s. Continue reading
By Aaron Wilson, Climate Specialist, CFAES
COLUMBUS, Ohio—Weather extremes like those during 2018, much more rain, and heavier downpours are likely to become the norm rather than the exception in Ohio, according to a climate expert with The Ohio State University.
As a result, the state’s farmers will have to deal with more and more water pouring onto and running off of their fields, and that could threaten the quality of water downstream, said Aaron Wilson, climate specialist with the College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES). Continue reading