Thinking of Grain Market from Field: Updated 2024 Planting Estimates and Market Outlook

Article taken from https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/2024/07/04/thinking-of-grain-market-from-field-updated-2024-planting-estimates-and-market-outlook/ by Dr. Seungki Lee, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics,  The Ohio State University

Click here to access a PDF of this report

 

Highlights 

  • Despite relatively hot and dry conditions, new crop growth is plain sailing.
  • Corn acreage is estimated to be larger than expected.
  • US grain stocks for both corn and soybeans are the highest post-Covid.
  • Ohio on-farm soybean stock is 64% higher than in 2023.

Introduction

Summer is a busy season for grain producers, leaving little time to analyze the market and strategize sales plans. Nevertheless, the first week of July is a good time to take a “10,000-foot view” of the market, as the USDA releases several important reports by the end of June. In this article, we will discuss grain market outlook by reviewing the USDA new crop planting estimates, WASDE report, and grain stocks report.

Continue reading Thinking of Grain Market from Field: Updated 2024 Planting Estimates and Market Outlook

AEDE Economic Outlook and Policy Webinar Series 2024

The Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) is hosting our annual Spring Monthly Webinar Series.

What are the key international issues with grain marketing in 2024? Do renewable energy needs ask too much of rural Americans? Uncertainty and rising prices have become fixtures in our financial and economic decision-making of late. This uncertainty and unrest have far-reaching impacts on not just our wallets but also on the very environment we live in. Join our expert economists for a new webinar series as we explore what’s going on in key commodity and labor markets. This series features a different AEDE economist breaking down an interesting topic every month throughout spring.

The Spring 2024 series schedule is below. Please register for each event you would like to attend separately by clicking the appropriate link on the AEDE website. Once registered, participants will receive a confirmation email with a link to view the selected webinar(s) live at the scheduled time(s). Participants will receive an automated reminder email for all upcoming sessions they registered to attend. Those unable to join live should still register to receive a recording of the webinar. All webinars will also be posted on the AEDE YouTube channel’s playlist for the series shortly after they are given live.  Click here to register.

  • January 24 – Dr. Jared Grant: “An Influencer’s Impact: How Trust May Shape Food Demand”
  • February 21 – Dr. Seungki Lee and Dr. Ian Sheldon: “Grain Marketing in 2024: What are the Key International Issues?”
  • March 20 — Dr. Yao Wang: “Place-Based Economic Development: The Case of Intel”
  • April 17 — Dr. Mark Partridge: “Do Renewable Energy Needs Ask Too Much of Rural Americans? A View from Ohio.”
  • May 15 — Dr. Ale Hollingsworth: “Excess Emissions: Environmental Impacts, Health Effects, and Policy Debate.”
  • June 5 — Dr. Margaret Jodlowski: “Agricultural Labor Supply and Citizenship Status”

Upcoming Organic Grains Conference Registration Opens

Registration is open for the 2nd annual Ohio State Organic Grains Conference, January 4-5, 2024 at the Maumee Bay Lodge and Conference Center near Toledo, Ohio. The 2024 conference offers programming for experienced organic growers, growers transitioning to or considering organic, and consultants or educators who support these growers. Continue reading Upcoming Organic Grains Conference Registration Opens

Farm Science Review is just around the corner!

LONDON, Ohio – More than 50 companies will join the ranks as exhibitors for the 61st Farm Science Review Sept. 19-21 at the Molly Caren Agricultural Center. The new exhibitors represent various sectors in the agriculture industry including livestock handling, equipment advancements, agronomic technology, agricultural policy, and more.

Paulding County Extension Office has tickets for sale at a discounted price total of $10 per ticket. Tickets will be for sale until Monday, September 18 at noon. Continue reading Farm Science Review is just around the corner!

Coffee & Grain Webinar Recap- Tight Supply Drives High Commodity Prices

On Monday morning’s Coffee and Grain Zoom, Dr. Seungki Lee (Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics) discussed the grain market outlook and the new crop prospects based on the USDA February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. In all three major crops – corn, soybean, and wheat, strong prices are projected in the 2022/2023 market mainly due to the tight supply. Additionally, Brazil was singled out as its production can swing both the 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 commodity markets.

See the attachment for Dr. Lee’s 3-page summary of this webinar

If you would like to watch to recording, it can be accessed at:

https://osu.zoom.us/rec/share/vd7HMk8CeQ17DKsgBLeFRTvVs_oLbVrCNVVSsVSIbdHXvwscwtBf_VcnVS94KCGY.Bj3ROPKQlmkgPtC1?startTime=1676291418000

2023 Small Farm Conference Registration Open!

Ohio State Extension announced plans to host a Small Farm Conference in Mansfield Ohio on March 11, 2023.  The theme for this year’s Mid-Ohio Small Farm Conference is “Sowing Seeds for Success.”

Conference session topics are geared toward beginning and small farm owners as well as farms looking to diversify their operations.  There will be five different conference tracks including Farm Office, Horticulture and Produce Production, Livestock, Agritourism/ Marketing, and Natural Resources.

Some conference topic highlights include: How to purchase our family farm, food animal processing, beekeeping, sweet corn, blueberry and pumpkin production, small ruminant nutrition, agritourism laws, fruit tree pruning, and cut flower diseases.

Anyone interested in developing, growing, or diversifying their small farm is invited to attend including market gardeners, farmers market vendors, and anyone interested in small farm living.

Attendees will have the opportunity to browse a trade show featuring the newest and most innovative ideas and services for their farming operations. The conference provides an opportunity to talk with the vendors and network with others.

The Conference will take place from 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. at the Mansfield OSU Campus in Ovalwood Hall, just minutes from I-71 and US Rt 30.

For conference and registration call OSU Extension Morrow County at 419-947-1070 or OSU Extension Knox County at 740-397-0401. Please follow this link to register for the conference: https://go.osu.edu/2023osusmallfarmconf

2023 Session Descriptions

Small Farm Conference Brochure 2023

Enterprise Budgets from OSU Extension

I have had some calls about the location of the OSU Extension enterprise budgets for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat. I thought I would share the information with the entire email list. Budgets are located at https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management/enterprise-budgets#2022. You will need to scroll down on the page and choose the budget you are looking for under 2023.

Have a great week!

September Farm Office Live – September 22 @ 10:00 AM

Sept 2022 Farm Office LiveThis season’s Farm Office Live schedule is set! We return on September 22 at 10 am, live from Farm Science Review! Make sure to register for this season’s Farm Office Live by following this link: https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_3V84ep3zT6SsKDJ_k_2FQg

Registration does not carry over from year to year. So, if you want to stay up to date with all the latest farm management and ag law issues, make sure to sign up!

2022 to 23 Farm Office Live Flyer

September Farm Office Live Slide

March Edition of Farm Office Live

This month’s Farm Office Live will be held on March 16th, from 7 – 8:30 pm, and again on March 18th from 10 – 11:30 am. The Farm Office Team provides the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis, and other issues dealt with in your farm office.  Targeted to farmers and agribusiness stakeholders, our specialists digest the latest news and information and present it in an easy-to-understand format. To sign up for the webinar (and if you can’t attend the recording link) go to go.osu.edu/farmofficelive.

March topics will include

  • Updates on FSA programs
  • Federal Tax Law Update/Medicaid Planning Review
  • Financial Efficiency Review for Grain Farms
  • Fertilizer Update/Crop Budgets
  • Grain Marketing Outlook

Farm Office Live – Did You Miss the January Topics? Recording Available.

Farm Office Live provides the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis, and other issues dealt with in your farm office. Targeted to farmers and agri-business stakeholders, our specialists digest the latest news and information and present it in an easy-to-understand format.

Photo of Farm Office Team Presenters

To register, visit the Farm Office Live registration site at https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_8abbbMu0RdC-oPB5DFuB3w.

Register once and you’ll receive reminders for future sessions.

DOWNLOAD JANUARY SLIDES 

Future dates: 

February 16 7:00 – 8:30 pm
February 18 10:00 – 11:30 am
March 16 7:00 – 8:30 pm
March 18 10:00 – 11:30 am
April 20 7:00 – 8:30 pm
May 18 7:00 – 8:30 pm

Did you miss a Farm Office Live?  Access our past Farm Office Live recordings and materials https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farmofficelive

The Status and Changing Face of Ohio Agriculture

by: Ani Katchova, Associate Professor and Farm Income Enhancement Chair, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University

Farmers deal with many stressors, most of which are out of their control: extreme weather, market changes, COVID-19, trade wars, fluctuating market prices, and environmental challenges. In 2019 particularly, a harsh winter followed by high spring and early summer rainfall led to damaged hay fields, delays in the planting of corn and soybean crops, and an inability to harvest early season crops in a timely manner. Tariffs on exported farm products led to declines in soybean and corn prices and contributed to uncertainty about the long-term security of global trade relationships. Continue reading The Status and Changing Face of Ohio Agriculture

Farm Office Live Scheduled for October 7, 2020

Join the OSU Extension Farm Office team for discussions on the latest agricultural law and farm management news.  The next session will be held on October 7, 2020, from 8:00 – 9:30 a.m.

Farm Office Live will be back for a review of the latest on round two of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), 2020 crop enterprise budgets, new custom rates, and Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents survey summary, Ohio’s COVID-19 immunity legislation, and other current issues in farm management.

Join our experts for quick presentations and Q & A. Go to https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farmofficelive to register or view past webinars and PowerPoint slides.

Thinking about storing more grain this fall?

Source: Chris Bruynis, Associate Professor/Extension Educator

There are several market factors that may have farmers looking to increase their storage for this fall. With lower prices, some farmers will look to store grain and hope prices will improve. With the current basis and price improvement between the harvest period compared to the January/March delivery period of 22 to 40 cents for corn and 16 to 34 cents for soybeans, elevators are sending a message to store grain.

The concern I have is that we will use some facilities that are not typically used for grain storage making aeration challenging at best. With poor air movement, grain going into storage will need to be of better quality, lower foreign material, and probably lower moisture.

Farmers interested in learning some strategies for successful drying and storage of grain, specifically corn and soybeans, are invited to join a Zoom Webinar on Monday, August 24, 2020, at 8:00 PM.  Dr. Kenneth Hellevang, Ph.D., PE, Extension Engineer, and Professor from North Dakota State University will be the featured speaker. He is one of the leading experts on grain drying, handling, and storage.

To join the webinar, go to https://osu.zoom.us/j/7911606448?pwd=L1pQQ0VoODROZG56Q015enNBQkVVUT09 and enter the Password: STORAGE

Also, if you cannot attend the program during the broadcast time, the recording will be available on the Ohio Ag Manager website following the program. The recording will be located at  https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/resources.

If you have questions, feel free to contact Chris Bruynis, bruynis.1@osu.edu or 740-702-3200. If you need assistance logging in on the evening of the program, contact David Marrison at 740-722-6073 or marrison.2@osu.edu.

Revisiting Corn Use for Ethanol

By: Todd Hubbs, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois.  farmdoc daily (10):133

Stronger export numbers and lower acreage boosted corn prices since the end of June.  Concerns about demand weakness in ethanol production emerged recently.  A recovery in economic activity helped ethanol plants ramp up production as gasoline demand increased.  A resurgence in virus incidences threatens ethanol production over the short run and injects uncertainty into long-run prospects.

Gasoline demand recovered to almost 89 percent of pre-coronavirus lockdown levels in early July.  Despite this positive development, the recovery in demand flattened out over the last few weeks.  Gasoline stocks began to recede but still sit substantially above levels seen at this time of the year.  Attempts to reopen the economy hit a snag as the virus spread rapidly around the country after initial hopes saw a rapid opening in many areas.  At 8.648 million barrels per day, demand recovered substantially from the low point of 5.311 million barrels per day seen in early April.  The path back to normal gasoline demand levels appears stalled.  Ethanol production followed this recovery and will feel the implications of flattening gasoline use. Continue reading Revisiting Corn Use for Ethanol

National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Updates

Sometimes this information is helpful in your farm management decisions. The National Ag Statics Service (NASS) sends different updates throughout the year.  This week was a big week of updates for the Great Lakes Region.  I am including those PDF updates links below.

Ohio Weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report

Ohio Acreage Summary

Ohio June 1 Grain Stocks

Ohio May Agricultural Prices

Ohio Biotechnology Varieties

Grain Market Summer Update June 30 – 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM

State Climatology Field Specialist, Aaron Wilson, and Ben Brown, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice in Agricultural Risk Management, both with The Ohio State University will give summer weather and grain market update after the release of the 2020 Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports from the United States Department of Agriculture. Due to the Coronavirus, economic conditions for corn changed rapidly after the Prospective Plantings Report with likely changes in acreage for the Eastern Corn-Belt. Weather, as always, during July and August will play a major factor in final yields and production in 2020.

June 30, 2020, from 2:00 PM until 3:30 PM

Registration link at https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_C-NDZU3IRya0SYMkMKlC0A

Ohio Soybean State of Soy Webinar

The Ohio Soybean Council will be sponsoring an Ohio Soybean State of Soy webinar on Tuesday, June 9 beginning at 10:00 a.m.  Ben Brown, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice in Agricultural Risk Management in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics at The Ohio State University will be the featured speaker.

During this webinar, Ben Brown will speak on soybean market fundamentals, trade updates, and assistance programs. There is no cost to attend this program. For more information Click here.

The March 2020 Soybean Crush Report is One for the Record Books

Click here for a PDF version of this article

By Ben Brown, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University – 4/17/2020

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released their March 2020 soybean estimates on Wednesday, April 15- a day that usually is not held in high regard due to US tax collections. That is until this year when federal income tax filings could be deferred to the middle of July and NOPA released a report further solidifying one of the few bright spots in the agricultural marketplace amid COVID-19 disruptions. The report indicated that monthly soybean crushing by the organization’s 13 members who account for approximately 95% of all crushed soybeans in the US reached a new monthly crush record of 181.374 million bushels.  This far exceeds any previous month and the market analyst expectation for the month of 175.163 million bushels. The March total is the first month above 180 million bushels and bested the previous record set just two months earlier by 6.211 million bushels. Soybean crush during the 2019/20 marketing year has been supported by strong domestic and international demand for soybean meal and healthy crush margins with new records being broken in four out of seven reported months- October 2019, December 2019, January 2020 and March 2020. Continue reading The March 2020 Soybean Crush Report is One for the Record Books