Coffee & Grain Webinar Recap- Tight Supply Drives High Commodity Prices

On Monday morning’s Coffee and Grain Zoom, Dr. Seungki Lee (Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics) discussed the grain market outlook and the new crop prospects based on the USDA February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. In all three major crops – corn, soybean, and wheat, strong prices are projected in the 2022/2023 market mainly due to the tight supply. Additionally, Brazil was singled out as its production can swing both the 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 commodity markets.

See the attachment for Dr. Lee’s 3-page summary of this webinar

If you would like to watch to recording, it can be accessed at:

https://osu.zoom.us/rec/share/vd7HMk8CeQ17DKsgBLeFRTvVs_oLbVrCNVVSsVSIbdHXvwscwtBf_VcnVS94KCGY.Bj3ROPKQlmkgPtC1?startTime=1676291418000

2023 Small Farm Conference Registration Open!

Ohio State Extension announced plans to host a Small Farm Conference in Mansfield Ohio on March 11, 2023.  The theme for this year’s Mid-Ohio Small Farm Conference is “Sowing Seeds for Success.”

Conference session topics are geared toward beginning and small farm owners as well as farms looking to diversify their operations.  There will be five different conference tracks including Farm Office, Horticulture and Produce Production, Livestock, Agritourism/ Marketing, and Natural Resources.

Some conference topic highlights include: How to purchase our family farm, food animal processing, beekeeping, sweet corn, blueberry and pumpkin production, small ruminant nutrition, agritourism laws, fruit tree pruning, and cut flower diseases.

Anyone interested in developing, growing, or diversifying their small farm is invited to attend including market gardeners, farmers market vendors, and anyone interested in small farm living.

Attendees will have the opportunity to browse a trade show featuring the newest and most innovative ideas and services for their farming operations. The conference provides an opportunity to talk with the vendors and network with others.

The Conference will take place from 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. at the Mansfield OSU Campus in Ovalwood Hall, just minutes from I-71 and US Rt 30.

For conference and registration call OSU Extension Morrow County at 419-947-1070 or OSU Extension Knox County at 740-397-0401. Please follow this link to register for the conference: https://go.osu.edu/2023osusmallfarmconf

2023 Session Descriptions

Small Farm Conference Brochure 2023

Enterprise Budgets from OSU Extension

I have had some calls about the location of the OSU Extension enterprise budgets for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat. I thought I would share the information with the entire email list. Budgets are located at https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farm-management/enterprise-budgets#2022. You will need to scroll down on the page and choose the budget you are looking for under 2023.

Have a great week!

September Farm Office Live – September 22 @ 10:00 AM

Sept 2022 Farm Office LiveThis season’s Farm Office Live schedule is set! We return on September 22 at 10 am, live from Farm Science Review! Make sure to register for this season’s Farm Office Live by following this link: https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_3V84ep3zT6SsKDJ_k_2FQg

Registration does not carry over from year to year. So, if you want to stay up to date with all the latest farm management and ag law issues, make sure to sign up!

2022 to 23 Farm Office Live Flyer

September Farm Office Live Slide

March Edition of Farm Office Live

This month’s Farm Office Live will be held on March 16th, from 7 – 8:30 pm, and again on March 18th from 10 – 11:30 am. The Farm Office Team provides the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis, and other issues dealt with in your farm office.  Targeted to farmers and agribusiness stakeholders, our specialists digest the latest news and information and present it in an easy-to-understand format. To sign up for the webinar (and if you can’t attend the recording link) go to go.osu.edu/farmofficelive.

March topics will include

  • Updates on FSA programs
  • Federal Tax Law Update/Medicaid Planning Review
  • Financial Efficiency Review for Grain Farms
  • Fertilizer Update/Crop Budgets
  • Grain Marketing Outlook

Farm Office Live – Did You Miss the January Topics? Recording Available.

Farm Office Live provides the latest outlook and updates on ag law, farm management, ag economics, farm business analysis, and other issues dealt with in your farm office. Targeted to farmers and agri-business stakeholders, our specialists digest the latest news and information and present it in an easy-to-understand format.

Photo of Farm Office Team Presenters

To register, visit the Farm Office Live registration site at https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_8abbbMu0RdC-oPB5DFuB3w.

Register once and you’ll receive reminders for future sessions.

DOWNLOAD JANUARY SLIDES 

Future dates: 

February 16 7:00 – 8:30 pm
February 18 10:00 – 11:30 am
March 16 7:00 – 8:30 pm
March 18 10:00 – 11:30 am
April 20 7:00 – 8:30 pm
May 18 7:00 – 8:30 pm

Did you miss a Farm Office Live?  Access our past Farm Office Live recordings and materials https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farmofficelive

The Status and Changing Face of Ohio Agriculture

by: Ani Katchova, Associate Professor and Farm Income Enhancement Chair, Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University

Farmers deal with many stressors, most of which are out of their control: extreme weather, market changes, COVID-19, trade wars, fluctuating market prices, and environmental challenges. In 2019 particularly, a harsh winter followed by high spring and early summer rainfall led to damaged hay fields, delays in the planting of corn and soybean crops, and an inability to harvest early season crops in a timely manner. Tariffs on exported farm products led to declines in soybean and corn prices and contributed to uncertainty about the long-term security of global trade relationships. Continue reading

Farm Office Live Scheduled for October 7, 2020

Join the OSU Extension Farm Office team for discussions on the latest agricultural law and farm management news.  The next session will be held on October 7, 2020, from 8:00 – 9:30 a.m.

Farm Office Live will be back for a review of the latest on round two of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), 2020 crop enterprise budgets, new custom rates, and Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents survey summary, Ohio’s COVID-19 immunity legislation, and other current issues in farm management.

Join our experts for quick presentations and Q & A. Go to https://farmoffice.osu.edu/farmofficelive to register or view past webinars and PowerPoint slides.

Thinking about storing more grain this fall?

Source: Chris Bruynis, Associate Professor/Extension Educator

There are several market factors that may have farmers looking to increase their storage for this fall. With lower prices, some farmers will look to store grain and hope prices will improve. With the current basis and price improvement between the harvest period compared to the January/March delivery period of 22 to 40 cents for corn and 16 to 34 cents for soybeans, elevators are sending a message to store grain.

The concern I have is that we will use some facilities that are not typically used for grain storage making aeration challenging at best. With poor air movement, grain going into storage will need to be of better quality, lower foreign material, and probably lower moisture.

Farmers interested in learning some strategies for successful drying and storage of grain, specifically corn and soybeans, are invited to join a Zoom Webinar on Monday, August 24, 2020, at 8:00 PM.  Dr. Kenneth Hellevang, Ph.D., PE, Extension Engineer, and Professor from North Dakota State University will be the featured speaker. He is one of the leading experts on grain drying, handling, and storage.

To join the webinar, go to https://osu.zoom.us/j/7911606448?pwd=L1pQQ0VoODROZG56Q015enNBQkVVUT09 and enter the Password: STORAGE

Also, if you cannot attend the program during the broadcast time, the recording will be available on the Ohio Ag Manager website following the program. The recording will be located at  https://u.osu.edu/ohioagmanager/resources.

If you have questions, feel free to contact Chris Bruynis, bruynis.1@osu.edu or 740-702-3200. If you need assistance logging in on the evening of the program, contact David Marrison at 740-722-6073 or marrison.2@osu.edu.

Revisiting Corn Use for Ethanol

By: Todd Hubbs, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois.  farmdoc daily (10):133

Stronger export numbers and lower acreage boosted corn prices since the end of June.  Concerns about demand weakness in ethanol production emerged recently.  A recovery in economic activity helped ethanol plants ramp up production as gasoline demand increased.  A resurgence in virus incidences threatens ethanol production over the short run and injects uncertainty into long-run prospects.

Gasoline demand recovered to almost 89 percent of pre-coronavirus lockdown levels in early July.  Despite this positive development, the recovery in demand flattened out over the last few weeks.  Gasoline stocks began to recede but still sit substantially above levels seen at this time of the year.  Attempts to reopen the economy hit a snag as the virus spread rapidly around the country after initial hopes saw a rapid opening in many areas.  At 8.648 million barrels per day, demand recovered substantially from the low point of 5.311 million barrels per day seen in early April.  The path back to normal gasoline demand levels appears stalled.  Ethanol production followed this recovery and will feel the implications of flattening gasoline use. Continue reading

National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) Updates

Sometimes this information is helpful in your farm management decisions. The National Ag Statics Service (NASS) sends different updates throughout the year.  This week was a big week of updates for the Great Lakes Region.  I am including those PDF updates links below.

Ohio Weekly Crop Progress & Condition Report

Ohio Acreage Summary

Ohio June 1 Grain Stocks

Ohio May Agricultural Prices

Ohio Biotechnology Varieties

Grain Market Summer Update June 30 – 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM

State Climatology Field Specialist, Aaron Wilson, and Ben Brown, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice in Agricultural Risk Management, both with The Ohio State University will give summer weather and grain market update after the release of the 2020 Acreage and Grain Stocks Reports from the United States Department of Agriculture. Due to the Coronavirus, economic conditions for corn changed rapidly after the Prospective Plantings Report with likely changes in acreage for the Eastern Corn-Belt. Weather, as always, during July and August will play a major factor in final yields and production in 2020.

June 30, 2020, from 2:00 PM until 3:30 PM

Registration link at https://osu.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_C-NDZU3IRya0SYMkMKlC0A

Ohio Soybean State of Soy Webinar

The Ohio Soybean Council will be sponsoring an Ohio Soybean State of Soy webinar on Tuesday, June 9 beginning at 10:00 a.m.  Ben Brown, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice in Agricultural Risk Management in the Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics at The Ohio State University will be the featured speaker.

During this webinar, Ben Brown will speak on soybean market fundamentals, trade updates, and assistance programs. There is no cost to attend this program. For more information Click here.

The March 2020 Soybean Crush Report is One for the Record Books

Click here for a PDF version of this article

By Ben Brown, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University – 4/17/2020

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released their March 2020 soybean estimates on Wednesday, April 15- a day that usually is not held in high regard due to US tax collections. That is until this year when federal income tax filings could be deferred to the middle of July and NOPA released a report further solidifying one of the few bright spots in the agricultural marketplace amid COVID-19 disruptions. The report indicated that monthly soybean crushing by the organization’s 13 members who account for approximately 95% of all crushed soybeans in the US reached a new monthly crush record of 181.374 million bushels.  This far exceeds any previous month and the market analyst expectation for the month of 175.163 million bushels. The March total is the first month above 180 million bushels and bested the previous record set just two months earlier by 6.211 million bushels. Soybean crush during the 2019/20 marketing year has been supported by strong domestic and international demand for soybean meal and healthy crush margins with new records being broken in four out of seven reported months- October 2019, December 2019, January 2020 and March 2020. Continue reading

Grain Marketing Outlook Week of April 10

In this week’s grain marketing update Assistant Professor of Professional Practice in Agricultural Risk Management Ben Brown covers the updated supply and demand estimates from USDA, corn used for ethanol and the potential to see elevated corn exports moving forward.

County Yield Numbers Set to Be Released – A better number to use in your estimate of Farm Bill payments

NASS will release 2019 county yields for corn and soybeans on Feb 20th. These county yields, along with more up-to-date price information, will be used to refine ARC/PLC decisions for 2019 and 2020.  Those counties that likely will make county yields will be identified.  Farmers in some counties may wish to revise ARC/PLC choices based on this information. These numbers are better estimates to use in your ARC-CO, PLC and ARC-IC programs.  The actual numbers will be determined by RMA and released on June 15 for corn and soybeans.

I have also had a few questions about the wheat yield estimates to use. Here is the link to the county wheat yields estimates https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Ohio/Publications/County_Estimates/2019/2019_CE_Wheat_Ohio.pdf

Prevented Planting Decision for Corn in the Midwest

Taken from May 14, 2019 farmdoc daily (9):88

Gary SchnitkeyKrista SwansonRyan Batts
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois

Carl Zulauf, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, Ohio State University

Continued wet weather and saturated soils over much of the Midwest suggest that many farmers will be facing decisions on whether to take prevented planting.  Prevented planting is available for those individuals purchasing the Common Crop Insurance (COMBO) product. Once the final planting date has arrived, the farmer can choose to take a prevented planting payment, plant corn, or plant soybeans or another crop. A cover crop can be planted on prevented planting farmland, but there are restrictions on haying and grazing the cover crop. In many cases, taking the prevented planting payments will have higher expected returns than planting.  However, market and policy dynamics this year make forming expectations on alternatives very difficult.   This article discusses considerations in making these decisions.

Need to Contact Crop Insurance Agents

Farmers who are considering taking prevented planting payments need to contact their crop insurance agents.  Eligibility and reporting requirements are key to assuring that a prevented planting payments can be received.  Moreover, for farmers electing prevented planting payments, the payments will be significant sources of farm income this year.  As a result, getting the details wrong can have large impacts on the financial positions of farms.

Eligibility for Prevented Planting Payments.

Prevented planting payments are eligible for plans in the Common Crop insurance (COMBO) policy.  These plans include Revenue Protection (RP), RP with the harvest price option, and Yield Protection.

For corn, the full prevented planting payments will be 55% of the guarantee. A buy-up option to 60% was available at crop insurance signup.  Take, as an example, an RP policy at an 85% coverage level and a 200 Trend-Adjusted Actual Production History (TA-APH) yield for corn.  The projected price for corn in 2019 is $4.00 per bushel.  In this case, the prevented planting payment in is $374 per acre (55% prevented planting payment times 85% coverage level times 200 TA-APH yields times $4.00 projected price). Lower RP coverage levels will have lower prevented planting payments.

Note also that the harvest price does not enter into prevented planting payments.  Prevented planting payments will not increase if the harvest price is above the projected price, even on RP policies.

Some farmers purchased the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) this year.  Prevented planting payments are not made on SCO coverage, only on the underlying COMBO product.

Prevented planting payments are not available on Area Risk Protection Insurance (ARPI) policies or Margin Protection.

Linkages between Commodity Title Programs and Market Facilitation Program Payments

Receiving prevented planting payments will not influence Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) or Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments.

However, taking prevented planting claims could influence payments from a 2019 successor to the 2018 Market Facilitation Program (MFP). In 2018, the MFP resulted from President Trump Administration’s desire to compensate farmers for losses due to trade disputes. Payments were $1.65 per bushel for soybeans and $.01 per bushel for corn on 2018 production.  If prevented planting is taken, no bushels will be produced and any future MFP-like payments paid by bushel produced will not occur. If the program is repeated, 2019 MFP payment levels could be different than in 2018. The program could have a different structure. Press articles suggest that aid will be forthcoming to farmers, although no plans for distribution have been released at this time (see Reuters).

Acres Eligible for Prevented Planting

Each insurable unit will have different acres eligible for prevented planting.  Knowing how many acres are eligible is key to not being surprised when making prevented planting decisions.  Crop insurance agents can aid in determining acres eligible for prevented planting payments.

As a general guideline, the maximum acres eligible for prevented planting payments equal the maximum acres of corn planted in the last four years in that insurable unit, adjusted for acreage increases, fewer corn acres planted in 2019.  Other planting requirements come into play as well.

As a simple example, take a 100-acre insurance unit that has remained the same size in the last four years. If the maximum number of acres in corn in one of the four years is 75 acres, then 75 acres is the maximum number of acres on which prevented the planting of corn can be taken.  If this farm gets 50 acres of corn planted, then only 25 acres are eligible for a prevented planting payment on corn.

Farmer-paid Premium and Enterprise Units

Enterprise units have significantly lower premiums than basic or optional units. To be eligible for an enterprise unit, a farmer must plant the lower of 20 acres or 20 percent of planted acres in at least two sections. Note that the requirement is based on planted acres.  Prevented planted acres do not enter into the calculations. If no planting occurs, the farm will receive prevented planting payments, but will not be eligible for the lower enterprise unit premiums.

APH Yields

Generally, prevented planting will not impact the APH yield in future years unless a second crop is planted on prevented planting acres.

Take as an example an insurable unit that has 500 acres and 400 acres are planted to corn. Prevented planting payments are taken on 100 acres and a second crop is not planted on those 100 acres. In this case, the yield used in calculating the APH for this insurable unit will be based on production from the 400 planted acres divided by 400 planted acres.

Decisions Following the Final Planting Date for Crop Insurance Purposes

For crop insurance purposes, the final planting date for a crop is key.  After the final planting data has arrived, a prevented planting payment can be taken.  There also is a late planting period that varies by state and crop and is 20 days after the final planting date for corn in Illinois.  Planting of corn after the final planting date can still occur, but the insurance guarantee is reduced 1% for each day the crop is planted after the final planting date.  After the 20 days late planting period, the guarantee will be 60% of the original guarantee.

Final planting dates for corn in most Midwest states will arrive soon. It is May 25 for much of the Great Plain states, upper Minnesota, and upper Wisconsin; May 31 for southern Minnesota, southeast North Dakota, southeast South Dakota, most of Wisconsin, Iowa, northeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and Kentucky; and June 5 for most of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. A map showing these dates is available in the May 7 farmdoc daily article.

Once the final planting date arrives, a farmer with a COMBO product has four options:

  1. Take a prevented planting payment and not plant a crop to be harvested or grazed.
  • The prevented planting payment equals 55% of the guarantee unless an additional 5% buy-up to 60% was purchased. Take a Revenue Protection (RP) policy at an 85% coverage level and a 200 bushel per acre Trend-Adjusted Actual Production History (TA-APH) yield. Given a 55% prevented planting payment factor, the prevented planting payment is $374 per acre (55% payment factor x 85% coverage level x 200 TA-APH yield x $4.00 projected price).
  • APH yield is not impacted. If all acres in the insurable unit are not planted, the 10-year history will not change between 2019 and 2020. If some acres are planted, the average yield on planted acres will enter the APH history.
  • Full prevented planting payment for an insurable unit requires no field crop is harvested in 2019 on prevented planting acres on that insurable unit.
  • A cover crop can be planted and fully prevented planting payment received if the cover crop is not hayed or grazed before November 1.
  • The full farmer-paid premium for corn must be paid on the prevented planting acres. Note that farmer-paid premiums may be higher if the enterprise unit requirements are not met (see above discussion).
  1. Plant corn.
  • No prevented planting payment will be received.
  • Acres will be insured but the guarantee will decrease throughout the late planting period. Again, take an RP policy with an 85% coverage level, a $4.00 projected price, and a 200 TA-APH yield. Before the final insurance planting date, the minimum revenue guarantee is $680 per acre. This guarantee will be reduced by 1% for each day after the final insurance planting date. The guarantee will be $673 per acre one day after the final planting date, $666 per acre two days after the final planted date, and so on. After 25 days, the guarantee is fixed at 60% of the original amount, or $408 per acre (60% times $680).
  • In most cases, the 2019 yield will enter the APH history and impact future APH yields on acres planted to corn. The only exception would be if Yield Exclusion is declared for a county, allowing the yield for that year to be not included in APH histories.
  • The farmer must pay all of the farmer-share of premium on corn.
  1. Plant another crop. A farmer can plant another crop on acres intended to be corn. In most of the Midwest, this crop will be soybeans.
  • No prevented planting payment is received.
  • If the farmer signed up for crop insurance on the planted crop for the insurable unit, the acres will be covered by that policy. The insurance guarantee is not reduced until that crop’s final insurance planting date is reached. For soybeans, this date ranges from June 10 to June 30 in Midwest states (see farmdoc daily, May 7, 2019 for maps of final planting dates). If the crop that is planted was not signed up for insurance on that insurable unit, crop insurance cannot be purchased at the final sales date has passed.
  1. Take 35% of the corn prevented planting payment and plant another crop for harvest after the late planting period.
    1. In this option, the corn prevented planting payment equals 35% of the full prevented planting payment. In double-crop situations, obtaining the full prevented planting payment while planting double-crop soybeans is possible.
    2. The crop must be planted after the late planting period for corn.  This date will be in late June. Key management questions are whether an adequate stand will occur and whether an early frost will reduce yield.

The following discussion will focus on options 1 through 3.  Option 4 will be dealt with in a farmdoc daily article after the final plant date has occurred.  Option 1 is a precursor of option 4.  It is unlikely that option 4 will have a higher expected return than option 1.

Calculating Expected Returns from the Three Options

The farmdoc Prevented Planting Module will be used to aid in making calculations for each alternative. The Prevented Planting Module is part of the Planting Decision Model, a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet within the FAST series available for download on farmdoc (here). The specific spreadsheet is available (here).

Calculations will be illustrated for a farm in Champaign County, Illinois that has chosen an RP policy at an 85% coverage level.  For Champaign County, the final planting date for corn is June 5 and for soybeans is June 20. The RP policy for corn has a 200 TA-APH yields and a 55% prevented planting payment factor applies for corn. Note that the tool gives the prevented planting payment for both corn and soybeans (see Figure 1).

Prevented Planting Payment on Corn: The prevented planting payment for corn will be $374 per acre. There will be costs associated with this alternative. We built in $25 per acre of weed control costs, which could include planting a cover crop. An $18 crop insurance premium also is included. Net returns from taking prevented planting are $341 per acre. Note that land and other costs are not included in the $341 value as they will not vary for the three options. The $341 per acre is not the net income from an acre under prevented planting.  In most cases, net income after considering overhead and land costs will be negative.

Plant Corn: Planting in this example is assumed to take place on June 6. On this date, planting will result in a slight reduction in the crop insurance guarantee to $673 per acre.  Those reductions will increase the later planting occurs during the late planting period.

In our example, the expected yield is 171 bushel per acre, as is estimated using parameters in the Prevented Planting Module. Users can override expected yields produced by the model. The expected insurance harvest price is $3.70 and the estimated harvest cash price is $3.40 in this example, close to the central Illinois market in mid-May. Given the 171 yields and $3.40 cash price, crop revenue is expected to be $581 per acre. Revenue includes a crop insurance payment of $41 per acre, bringing total estimated revenue to $622 per acre.

The example assumes that there are $469 per acre in “costs yet to be incurred”.  These are costs that can be avoided if corn is not planted, but will be incurred if corn is planted and harvested. The example shown in Figure 1 assumes that all fieldwork and all inputs still need to be applied, as is the case on many farms as a wet fall precluded much field work.  Several items to note:

  • Fertilizer costs are $145 per acre and include nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash.  If nitrogen fertilizer has already been applied, then it should not be included in costs as it has already been incurred and cannot be avoided by not planting.
  • Drying costs are at $18 per acre.  Late planted corn likely will have a higher moisture level at harvest, resulting in a higher drying charge.  Harvesting corn in the high 20 percent moisture levels could result in much higher drying charges, perhaps near $50 per acre.
  • Field operations are charged at estimates of total machinery costs. Some reduction for planting and fieldwork may be warranted, but this will change results very little.

Net revenue from planting corn is $153 per acre. This is substantially lower than the $341 per acre net revenue from taking the prevented planting payment assuming no fieldwork is done and no input has been used and that all inputs are refundable.  Again, both figures are prior to land costs and therefore not equivalent to net income.

Plant Soybeans: Soybeans planted on June 6 are estimated to have a 59-bushel yield. The harvest insurance price is $8.30 and the expected cash price at harvest is $8.00. Costs to be incurred for soybeans are $256 per acre.

Net returns from planting soybeans are $219 per acre. Planting soybeans have higher returns than planting corn, but still notably less than taking the prevented planting payments for corn.

Planting Corn versus Taking a Prevented Planting Payment

For this example, expectations are that net returns from taking corn prevented planting exceeds returns from planting either corn or soybeans. Obviously, realized prices and yields will impact returns. The Planting Decision Model prepares a table giving net returns for corn under different prices and yields. These net returns include both revenue from crop sales as well as crop insurance payments (see Table 1).  Net returns above that from taking the corn prevented planting payment are highlighted in red. Note that net returns from prevented planting are above net returns from corn planting except when prices exceed $4.25 or yields are above 200 bushels per acre. Even at 210 bushels per acre, corn price needs to be above $4.00 before planting corn has higher net returns than taking prevented planting payments.

The example in Figure 1 and Table 1 uses an 85% coverage level.  Lower coverage levels will have lower prevented planting payments and net returns:

80% coverage level:  $352 prevented planting payment and $309 net return

75% coverage level: $330 prevented planting payment and $287 net return

70% coverage level: $308 prevented planting payment and $265 net return

As net returns are lowered, planting corn will become a more attractive alternative, but, even at a 70% coverage level, expected net returns from taking prevented planting payments exceed that from planting corn.

Two other considerations in the decision to plant corn or take the prevented planting payment:

  • Planting corn has the potential to lower APH yield in the future.
  • There is a possibility of MFP-like payments on corn that are higher than the $.01 level in 2018.  Higher MFP payments could increase revenue from planting corn.

Switching to Soybeans versus Taking a Prevented Planting Payment

Soybean net returns are $219 per acre, higher than corn’s net return of $153 per acre, but still below the $331 per acre net return from taking the prevented planting payment.  Those net returns suggest taking the corn prevented planting payment has the highest expected return.  Planting soybeans have the same considerations as planting corn, but three seem critical:

  • Net returns are based on a 59 bushel per acre yield.  This yield may be high given the late planting.
  • An MFP payment in 2019 similar to the 2018 payment would change returns.  Adding a $1.65 per bushel MFP to the example in Table 1 would increase returns to $314 per acre, coming close to the $331 per acre net return on taking the prevented planting payment on corn.
  • Low yield in 2019 will lower APH yields in future years.

Market and Policy Dynamics

Uncertainty about market and policy dynamics cause prevented planting decisions to be more difficult this year than is typical.  Items contributing to these uncertainties include:

  • The trade war with China leads to uncertainty about the level of soybean exports from the United States.
  • The presence of African Swine Fever in southeast Asia further reinforces the potential for lower export demand for soybeans.
  • The likely existence of a successor to the Market Facilitation Program in 2019 could influence market dynamics. Press reports suggest that President Trump’s administration is considering about $15 billion in aid to American farmers, more than occurred in 2018.  If this aid is tied to production as the 2018 MFP payments were, decisions related to prevented planting will impact MFP-like returns, potentially changing decisions of farmers.
  • The late planting contributes to uncertainty about acreages that will be planted and yields that will be harvested in the U.S.

In a late planting year, the expected dynamics are for corn acres to decrease and soybean acres to increase, leading to upward pressures on corn prices and lower soybean prices.  Offsetting these movements would be MFP payments at 2018 levels: $.01 per bushel for corn and $1.65 per bushel for soybeans.  The level of MFP payments in 2019 could offset the current lower soybean prices.  How this will impact planting decisions and resulting market conditions is difficult to predict.

At this point, market dynamics in corn and soybean markets are being influenced by elements not seen in the past, causing difficult projections to be even more uncertain.

Summary

Prevented planting decisions are always difficult, but the market and policy dynamics make 2019 decisions even more difficult.  Given no MFP-like payments, our analysis suggests that prevented planting has the highest expected return relative to planting corn or planting soybeans.  An individual’s situation will matter.  In particular, planting may be more economical if some of the inputs, especially fertilizer on corn, have already been applied.

An individual’s expectation on another round of aid similar to last year’s MFP payments also will influence planting decisions.  Press reports suggest that aid is being considered and that aid will be larger than last year.  If this aid is targeted to 2019 production, incentives will be reduced to take prevented planting payments.

The above analysis is for a central Illinois farm situation.  Expected returns from the alternatives will vary across regions.  Farmers should conduct their own analysis. Still, the considerations and dynamics presented in this paper will apply to all farmers in the Midwest facing late planting decisions.

Market and policy conditions are very fluid this year. This article contains the best information available as of this date, but conditions may change.  Farmers should check with crop insurance agents when making prevented planting decisions.

Continue reading

How many soybean acres do we need in 2019?

By: Todd HubbsDepartment of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois
Previously published by Farmdoc Daily

We have reached the time of the year where speculation about acreage for the 2019 crops begins in earnest. While the

number of acres planted to soybeans appears set to decrease, current projections indicate an intention to plant significantly more acres than necessary to reach break-even prices in Illinois under current consumption and stock level forecasts. Continue reading