By Aaron Wilson, OSU Extension
Weather Summary
Ohio’s weather has been dominated by the high pressure of late, bringing with it a pattern of warm, sunny days and cool nights for the last couple of weeks. During this time, little to no rain has fallen across the state. As daylight hours are growing shorter, evaporation is not as strong as it is during the summer. Therefore, drought conditions are not rapidly expanding across Ohio. However, persistent dryness is evident across areas of northwest, southwest, and far northeast Ohio, where soils remain dry. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates about 18% of Ohio is still experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions (Fig. 1). For more information on recent climate conditions and impacts, check out the latest Hydro-Climate Assessment from the State Climate Office of Ohio.
Figure 1: U.S. Drought Monitor for Ohio as reported on Thursday, September 22, 2020.
The first in a series of cold fronts are crossing Ohio on this Monday evening, with light to moderate rain showers. Behind this front, cooler temperatures will settle into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A secondary cold front will move through late Wednesday, which will drop temperatures below average for this time of the year. Highs for Thursday through Sunday are expected to be in the mid-50s to mid-60s with lows in the mid-30s to low-40s. There could be a few spotty afternoon showers around during this period as well, especially across northern Ohio, but we are not expecting heavy rainfall totals. The Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.25-0.75” of rain across most of Ohio for the next 7 days, with slightly greater totals in the northeast (Fig. 2). Though widespread freeze conditions (32°F or colder) are not expected, scattered frosts are possible for the end of the week and over the weekend, especially in low-lying areas. Forecast
Figure 2: Forecast precipitation for the next 7 days. Valid from 8 pm Monday, September 24, 2020, through 8 pm Monday, October 6, 2020. Figure from the Weather Prediction Center.
The latest NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 8-14 day period (October 6 – 12) and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center show near average temperatures and below-average precipitation are likely (Fig. 3). Normal highs during the period are in the mid-60s to low-70s, lows in the mid-40s to low-50s, with about 0.75” of rainfall per week.
Figure 3: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for October 6 – 12, 2020 for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above-normal conditions.