From the Farm Management Front – Update on County Yield Estimates for 2019 ARC/PLC Programs

On the dark art of software estimation | TechCrunchFrom Sarah Noggle with additional information from Ben Brown.

Sarah’s information: Yes, you read that correctly, 2019 estimates. As many of you know and are understanding the 2018 Farm Bill program through USDA (yes – it’s confusing sometimes when you are working with it daily), one will remember that payments will be made the calendar year after the program selection in late October. 

I have had a few requests and asks about what will my 2019 Farm Bill payments look like if I choose ARC-CO or PLC for Paulding County.  While this information will officially come from the FSA office later in the calendar year in 2020 (usually in October), I have attached some information on the ESTIMATES. Remember these payments are made on your BASE acres, not on the acres you planted in 2019. 

  • Paulding County – ARC-CO Wheat Base Acres $33.38
  • Paulding County – ARC-CO Corn Base Acres $0
  • Paulding County – ARC-CO Soybean Base Acres $0
  • Paulding County PLC Wheat Base Acres $36.66
  • Paulding County PLC Corn Base Acres $11.22
  • Paulding County PLC Soybean Base Acres $0

 Also, remember due to 2019 prevent plant acres in Paulding County and the surrounding counties, some producers choose the ARC-IC program.  The ARC-IC payments will be made comparing your own farm-level data and requires you to submit extra information to the FSA office. Ben Brown has created the estimates for corn, soybean, and wheat base acres for all the counties across the state.  His information will allow producers to have an idea of autumn working capital, debt repayment, and information to purchase inputs with an early season discount. 

Information from Ben Brown.

Several of our OSU County Extension offices and the Farm Service Agency county office personnel have been asking for our estimates of Agricultural Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage payments for the program year 2019 (ends September 30, 2020). So I am releasing our estimates for 2019 payment rates. These payments will officially be released by the Farm Service Agency later in the 2020 calendar year, usually in October. Producers have indicated to us that they use these payments for autumn working capital, debt repayment, and to purchase inputs with an early season discount. More information about ARC and PLC can be found in our handbook “The Ohio State University Guide to 2018 Farm Bill Commodity Programs”. 

The program year 2019 is the first year under the 2018 Farm Bill. There where some key changes were made to ARC-CO in comparison to the 2014 Farm Bill:

  • RMA yield data is now the preferred data source for county yields instead of NASS
  • ARC-CO historical benchmark yields are trend adjusted
  • Counties with high enough levels of irrigated acres will have both an irrigated and nonirrigated ARC-CO payment rate
  • For FSA farms with acreage in multiple counties- a blended yield and pay rate will be created. All acres of the same commodity under that FSA farm number will receive the same payment rate regardless of county. The blended yield is based on the percentage of base acres in each county applied to both the historical yields and the current year yield.

ARC and PLC payments have generally been decreasing the last couple of years, but have been replaced with relatively large Ad hoc payments by the Federal Government: Market Facilitation Program (MFP) for trade and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) for COVID-19 economic effects. We do not know yet what the county participation rates are for 2019 between ARC and PLC, but we know nationwide producer enrollment is as followed:

Corn- 76%: PLC, 24% ARC

Soybeans- 14% PLC, 86% ARC

Wheat- 93% PLC, 7% ARC

I am attaching a couple of things for your use and reference.

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