USDA ERS Feed Outlook

by: Chris Zoller, Extension Educator, ANR, Tuscarawas County

In the USDA Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) Feed Outlook released August 16, U.S. corn production was lowered due to a reduced yield forecast from the National Agricultural Statistic Service (NASS).  This projection, along with tight ending stocks raised the expected average corn price to $5.75 per bushel.

NASS puts the national corn yield at 174.6 bushels per acre.  This is a reduction from the 179.5 bushels per acre projected in the previous month’s forecast.  The harvested acres remained unchanged from the June Acreage Report at 172 bushels per acre.  The figure below is a forecast of corn yield by state for 2021.

Since planting, weather conditions have been mixed throughout the corn producing states.  Some areas have experienced drought, while others have had significant rainfall.  Record yields are possible in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, and California.  If realized, at 214 bushels per acre, Illinois would set a state record.

U.S. Corn Utilization

Domestic corn use for the 2020-2021 marketing year is projected to increase 40 million bushels over July.  Looking ahead to the 2021-2022 marketing year, domestic use is reduced by 90 million bushels.

The latest USDA-ERS report expects increases in the amount of corn used for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) processing.  The figure below explains corn utilization during the marketing years 1990 – 2020.


Many factors including weather, exports, and usage can change between now and harvest.  Some of these factors are out of your control, but farmers are encouraged to seek marketing opportunities that maximize return.

The complete report is available here:

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